Iran's resilience, Israel's disarray: Who won?

Observer

a day ago

It is far too early to determine a victor in the 12-day confrontation between Iran and Israel. Though both sides declared success, the conflict is likely still in its early stages. Supporters on either side tend to view the events emotionally, seeing victory through the lens of allegiance rather than facts. The real measure of success lies in whether either side achieved its stated goals.
Israel entered this confrontation with the intention of toppling the Iranian regime in a single night - eliminating top leaders, including the Supreme Leader and the President, and paving the way for exiled figure Reza Pahlavi to assume power.
Backed and publicised by the West, Pahlavi himself admitted that these ambitions failed, blaming US President Donald Trump for abandoning the plan. Israel also aimed to dismantle Iran's nuclear programme and provoke internal uprising.
Yet Tehran stood firm, its leadership intact, its nuclear capability preserved, and its people — regardless of their political stance — unified in opposition to what they saw as foreign aggression.
However, one cannot ignore the painful blows dealt by Israel. It exposed significant weaknesses in Iran's air defence, destroyed drone launch sites and carried out deep infiltration operations.
That Mossad managed to establish a three-storey drone factory in the heart of Tehran is a staggering indicator of internal vulnerability. And yet, despite this, Iran managed to strike back with unexpected resilience, shaking Israel's confidence in its famed defence systems and targeting strategic facilities.
Disappointingly, several Arab countries acted as a shield for Israel's defence - serving as a real 'Iron Dome.'
This episode reinforced a long-standing truth: the world only respects strength. Prime Minister Netanyahu's decision to accept a ceasefire before fulfilling his grand vision of neutralising Iran's nuclear ambitions is an implicit admission of failure. The cost of continuing outweighed the potential gains.
Israel, for the first time, found itself forced to retreat from a direct military confrontation without achieving its objectives. The war exposed vulnerabilities in its internal cohesion and confirmed that Israel's deterrence narrative is far from invincible. The idea that it can easily subdue Iran has been severely undermined.
While the current round may have ended, the tension is far from over. Israel will remain uneasy as long as Iran holds on to its sovereign decision-making power and nuclear capability. The failure to dismantle the Iranian regime or nuclear facilities, and the rallying of the Iranian people around their leadership, are outcomes that Tel Aviv did not anticipate.
Nonetheless, the confrontation revealed alarming security gaps in Iran. The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in what was claimed to be an Iranian safe zone, the mysterious crash of President Raisi's aircraft, the killings of nuclear scientists, and the exposure of internal drone factories all point to a deeply compromised intelligence environment.
More worrying still is the wider regional context. The silence - or worse, complicity of many Arab states has become strikingly apparent. Israel has not only penetrated these governments politically, but also garnered their open or covert support. Once forced to conceal their collaboration, some Arab regimes now show it openly, even proudly, though they lack the legitimacy to justify such alignment.
It is telling that the ceasefire was reportedly requested by Israel itself, realising that prolonging the battle could lead to collapse from within. With an estimated two million Israelis having emigrated since the beginning of Al Aqsa operation, and rising dissent within the Knesset and public, internal pressures are mounting. The damage in Tel Aviv, despite tight media restrictions, has not been witnessed since 1948.
Iran's strikes successfully targeted key Israeli intelligence and military centres, including the Mossad HQ in Herzliya, military intelligence units and Haifa Port — effectively dismantling Israel's 20-year deterrence narrative.
Had Israel succeeded in its plan to dismantle Iran's regime and nuclear programme, Netanyahu would have emerged as the architect of a new Middle East, having eliminated the resistance axis and reshaped the region. For now, Iran has managed to halt that trajectory.
Above all, the Iranian people deserve recognition. The same nation that once resisted the Shah's tanks has again closed ranks, temporarily setting aside internal disputes to defend national sovereignty. It is a reminder that legitimacy ultimately stems from the people.
So, who won? While Iran's performance may inspire admiration, one cannot claim it has achieved total victory.
Likewise, Israel has suffered a strategic setback. What is clear, however, is that the war is not over. This is but an uneasy pause. As long as Iran remains strong, scientifically advanced, and nuclear-capable, this fragile truce could collapse at any moment.
Translated by Badr al Dhafri
The original version of this article was published in Arabic in the print edition of the Oman daily newspaper on June 30.