The beast that lurks in Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill'

Time of India

3 days ago

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President Donald Trump 's high-stakes economic proposal, officially titled the 'One Big Beautiful Bill', has ignited fierce debate in Washington, deepened fractures within the Republican Party , and reawakened a personal feud with tech billionaire Elon Musk . The bill is designed to deliver sweeping tax relief, industrial subsidies and infrastructure investments. But with a projected $3.3 trillion impact on the national debt over the next decade, many Republicans are balking at its fiscal recklessness, while policy experts and political observers warn it could be one of the most destabilising bills in America's modern legislative history.Far from unifying the GOP, the bill has exposed deep ideological rifts, raised significant ethical questions, and, in Musk's case, sparked threats of a third party coming up. The political cost of passing this bill may ultimately outweigh any short-term economic stimulus it promises.At the center of the controversy is the bill's staggering $3.3 trillion projected cost. Trump has insisted this price tag is justifiable and even necessary, arguing that aggressive federal investment will spur economic growth and rebuild America's crumbling infrastructure.But the economic reality is more sobering. Analysts warn that such a debt expansion would require sustained annual GDP growth above 5% to be self-financing, an unlikely outcome given current interest rate trends and global economic slowdowns. Moreover, the Congressional Budget Office has warned of inflationary pressures, higher long-term borrowing costs and reduced fiscal flexibility in future crises. Within the Senate GOP, fiscal hawks see the bill as a betrayal of conservative economic principles.This disunity has stalled the bill's advancement and left Senate Republicans locked in a deadlock, with MAGA-aligned loyalists backing the bill unconditionally while traditional conservatives demand significant revisions or outright rejection.One of the most politically explosive elements of the bill is its deep cuts to social safety net programmes. The most significant of these is a $540 billion reduction in Medicaid funding over the next decade through various proposals. These changes would disproportionately affect low-income Americans, with estimates suggesting that up to 18 million people could lose coverage. Rural hospitals, many of which depend heavily on Medicaid reimbursements, face potential closures, particularly in red states. For a president whose political identity is closely tied to populist messaging, the optics of cutting healthcare access for working-class voters are starkly contradictory.In addition to Medicaid, the bill includes a $150 billion cut to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and freezes growth or slashes funding for several social programmes. Critics argue that this amounts to a systemic rollback of the post-World War II welfare state, disproportionately harming seniors, veterans, the disabled and working poor.The bill also launches a full-scale retreat from federal support for renewable energy and clean technology. Nearly all clean energy subsidies are eliminated, including the Solar Investment Tax Credit , Wind Production Tax Credit, and incentives for electric vehicles and energy-efficient buildings. Trump has described these programs as a woke agenda, but the practical impact of these eliminations is likely to be severe. The US clean energy sector, which employs more than 9 million people, could see mass layoffs and reduced capital investment. In particular, states that have seen recent economic growth from renewables are at risk of economic setbacks.Environmentalists and business leaders alike warn that these cuts will not only stall domestic decarbonization efforts but also surrender America's competitive edge in a global clean energy race. With China and the European Union doubling down on green technology, critics argue that Trump's policy serves ideological goals while undermining long-term economic interests.Another core controversy surrounds the bill's $800 billion in subsidies for different industries. These include fossil fuels, defense contractors, domestic manufacturers, and certain artificial intelligence companies. The bill's language is vague, lacking clear criteria or oversight mechanisms for determining subsidy recipients. Watchdog groups have raised red flags about potential cronyism and corruption, while ethics experts warn that the subsidies may violate federal conflict-of-interest standards if Trump's business interests benefit, directly or indirectly.Notably, the bill also contains tax breaks and incentives for industries in which Trump himself has longstanding business ties, particularly real estate and hospitality. These provisions include expanded depreciation allowances for commercial properties, relaxed capital gains rules, and new redevelopment credits for domestic tourism infrastructure. While Trump's team insists that these are meant to revitalize American businesses, critics call it a scheme for self-enrichment.Even if Trump succeeds in muscling the bill through Congress, its long-term consequences may prove politically and economically damaging. Economically, it risks adding unsustainable debt, sparking inflationary cycles, and derailing clean energy growth. Politically, it threatens to alienate key Republican constituencies such as fiscal conservatives, suburban moderates and young libertarians.In perhaps the most dramatic subplot surrounding the bill, Musk has emerged as a fierce opponent. He has threatened to launch a new political entity, positioning himself as a centrist alternative to both Trump-style populism and Democratic progressivism. Musk has lambasted the bill for its elimination of electric vehicle subsidies and exclusion of space-tech ventures from industrial incentives. In a particularly provocative statement, Musk replied to Trump's threat of slashing subsidies to his businesses: "I am literally saying CUT IT ALL. Now," he wrote on X. While some dismiss Musk's threats as theatrics, his political influence, especially among independents, suburban professionals, and younger libertarians, is real. A third-party bid or even a significant political action committee could siphon support from Trump-aligned Republicans and fragment the conservative base ahead of the 2026 midterms. He has already threatened that he would ensure those Republicans who support the bill lose primaries.For a president seeking to cement his legacy, " One Big Beautiful Bill " may instead become a lasting source of division, controversy and scrutiny. Rather than uniting the country under a common economic vision, the bill appears to deepen partisan divides, enrich favored industries, and sacrifice long-term stability for short-term spectacle.