Why keeping rates on hold could be costly, says AMP's deputy chief economist
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Perth Now
3 hours ago
- Perth Now
Warning ‘nervous' RBA could hold rates
A big four bank is warning mortgage holders a 'nervous' RBA could hold interest rates again in August as it looks to kill off inflation. Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis says Tuesday's release of minutes of the Reserve Bank's July meeting and the governor's keynote speech on Thursday reaffirm a rate cut in August is not a lock. 'The monetary policy board clearly remains nervous about inflation and some members want to see actual data to support their expectation that it is still declining towards 2.5 per cent, the midpoint of the RBA's 2-3 per cent target range,' Ms Ellis wrote in an economic note on Friday. 'For this reason, we cannot lock in the cash rate cut in August just yet.' Despite warning a cut is not a guarantee, Ms Ellis did concede the most likely outcome was a rate reduction in August. Homeowners are warned a rate cut in August is not guaranteed. NewsWire / Nicholas Eagar Credit: NewsWire Traders have priced in an August rate cut as a near certainty and all 29 market economists surveyed by Bloomberg say the official cash rate will be reduced by 25 basis points. The market in total expects 75 basis points worth of cuts by March 2026, bringing the official cash rate down from 3.85 to 3.10 per cent. While economists have been factoring in falling inflation and rising unemployment as a sign to cut, Ms Ellis said they shouldn't be pricing it as a certainty. 'Monetary board members who are still nervous about supply constraints and tight labour markets will want to tread slowly,' Ms Ellis said. In her speech to the Anika Foundation on Thursday, RBA governor Michele Bullock said the board would take a measured and gradual approach to future rate cuts. Ms Bullock pointed out year-end trimmed mean – which shows the underlying inflation rate by stripping out the more volatile parts of the economy, including fuel and energy prices – came in at just under 3 per cent for the first time since 2021. 'The monthly CPI Indicator data, which are volatile, suggest that the fall may not be quite as much as we forecast back in May,' she said. 'We still think it will show inflation declining slowly towards 2.5 per cent, but we are looking for data to support this expectation.' ANZ also came out with a warning saying the next round of CPI data – to be released next Wednesday – could derail an interest rate cut. ANZ said there is a key quarterly inflation figure to watch. Christian Gilles / NewsWire Credit: News Corp Australia ANZ economists say the central bank will be comfortable cutting should the quarterly trimmed mean figures come in at 0.6 per cent or 2.7 per cent for the year. But if the number comes in at 0.8 per cent or higher or an annualised rate of 3 per cent they say a cut is unlikely. Ms Bullock also said the labour market remained tight and the uptick in unemployment from 4.1 to 4.3 per cent in June was not a surprise to the central bank. Asked if seeing the June unemployment figures, which came out after the RBA's board meeting, would have swayed the board's decision Ms Bullock said: 'I don't think so'. 'The monthly numbers pop up and down … Our quarterly forecast for the unemployment rate to drift up to 4.2 per cent in the June quarter is pretty much on the mark,' Ms Bullock said. Ms Bullock also said economists overreacted to the figure and it wasn't the 'shock' they were calling it. 'Some of the coverage of the latest data suggested this was a shock – but the outcome for the June quarter was in line with the forecast we released in May,' she said. She said the board wanted to see a gradual easing in labour market conditions, that has so far been most evident in fewer job vacancies, reductions in hours worked and declining rates of voluntary job switching.
SBS Australia
9 hours ago
- SBS Australia
Australia and UK to sign new 50-year treaty amid US uncertainty
The United Kingdom has underscored its commitment to AUKUS after revealing it will sign a new 50-year treaty with Australia, amid questions over US involvement in the trilateral security pact. The treaty will be inked when Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defence Minister Richard Marles host their UK counterparts David Lammy and John Healey in Sydney on Friday for regular Australia-UK ministerial meetings, according to British news agency PA. "This historic treaty confirms our AUKUS commitment for the next half century," UK defence secretary Healey said. While the AUKUS nuclear submarine partnership involves the US, UK and Australia, the treaty is between the latter two nations, as a Pentagon review into the agreement threatens America's future participation. Australia and the UK are expected to lay out the bilateral aspects of the agreement and explore ways the two countries can work together over the next half-century. In a joint statement, Marles and Wong said the Australia-UK Ministerial Consultations, or AUKMIN, were critical to the two nations' shared interests. "We take the world as it is — but together, we are working to shape it for the better," Wong said. Under the $368 billion AUKUS program, Australia will buy at least three Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines from the US in the early 2030s. A new class of nuclear submarines will be built in Adelaide and delivered in the 2040s. The US had promised to sell Australia nuclear-powered attack submarines under the AUKUS agreement, but President Donald Trump's administration has launched a review into the deal to examine whether it aligns with his "America first" agenda. Defence analysts believe a likely outcome of the US review will be a request for more money from Australia to support its submarine industrial base. The Australian government has said it remains confident in the nuclear-submarine deal being delivered. The UK has fast become one of Australia's most important defence allies amid turmoil under the Trump administration, a security analyst says. Australian Strategic Policy Institute senior analyst Dr Alex Bristow said holding ministerial meetings on a six-monthly cycle, rather than the traditional annual timeline, highlights strengthened ties between the two nations. "The tempo of it increasing, I think, is a signal that Britain is moving into an elite category," he told AAP. The UK was probably third behind Japan and the US in terms of how strategically significant the defence relationship was to Australia, Bristow said. Meanwhile, the UK's Carrier Strike Group, led by the Royal Navy flagship HMS Prince of Wales, arrived in Darwin on Wednesday in the midst of the Talisman Sabre multi-nation military exercises being hosted by Australia. It's the first UK carrier strike group to visit Australia since 1997. The international task group includes five core ships, 24 jets and 17 helicopters, centred on the flagship aircraft carrier. On Sunday, Marles and Wong will join their counterparts in Darwin to observe the UK Carrier Strike Group in action at Talisman Sabre. UK High Commissioner to Australia Sarah MacIntosh said the arrival of the strike group was a demonstration of commitment to the region and the strong relationship with Canberra. "This is an anchor relationship in a contested world," she said. Bristow said Australia should be welcoming carrier strike groups from European countries. He said NATO had identified China as a threat to its interests as Beijing continues to collaborate with Russia and North Korea. "It's entirely in the interests of European allies in NATO to be working with Indo-Pacific allies," Bristow said.
The Advertiser
11 hours ago
- The Advertiser
UK to back 50-year AUKUS treaty as US shadow looms
The United Kingdom has underscored its commitment to AUKUS after revealing it will sign a new 50-year treaty with Australia, amid questions over US involvement in the trilateral security pact. The treaty will be inked when Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defence Minister Richard Marles host their UK counterparts David Lammy and John Healey in Sydney on Friday for regular Australia-UK ministerial meetings, according to British news agency PA. "This historic treaty confirms our AUKUS commitment for the next half century," UK Defence Secretary John Healey said. While the AUKUS nuclear submarine partnership involves the US, UK and Australia, the treaty is between the latter two nations, as a Pentagon review into the agreement threatens America's future participation. Australia and the UK are expected to lay out the bilateral aspects of the agreement and explore ways the two countries can work together over the next half-century. In a joint statement, Mr Marles and Senator Wong said the Australia-UK Ministerial Consultations, or AUKMIN, were critical to the two nations' shared interests. "We take the world as it is - but together, we are working to shape it for the better," Senator Wong said. Under the $368 billion AUKUS program, Australia will buy at least three Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines from the US in the early 2030s. A new class of nuclear submarines will be built in Adelaide and delivered in the 2040s. The US had promised to sell Australia nuclear-powered attack submarines under the AUKUS agreement, but President Donald Trump's administration has launched a review into the deal to examine whether it aligns with his "America first" agenda. Defence analysts believe a likely outcome of the US review will be a request for more money from Australia to support its submarine industrial base. The Australian government has said it remains confident in the nuclear-submarine deal being delivered. The UK has fast become one of Australia's most important defence allies amid turmoil under the Trump administration, a security analyst says. Australian Strategic Policy Institute senior analyst Alex Bristow said holding ministerial meetings on a six-monthly cycle, rather than the traditional annual timeline, highlights strengthened ties between the two nations. "The tempo of it increasing, I think, is a signal that Britain is moving into an elite category," he told AAP. The UK was probably third behind Japan and the US in terms of how strategically significant the defence relationship was to Australia, Dr Bristow said. Meanwhile, the UK's Carrier Strike Group, led by the Royal Navy flagship HMS Prince of Wales, arrived in Darwin on Wednesday in the midst of the Talisman Sabre multi-nation military exercises being hosted by Australia. It's the first UK carrier strike group to visit Australia since 1997. The international task group includes five core ships, 24 jets and 17 helicopters, centred on the flagship aircraft carrier. On Sunday, Mr Marles and Senator Wong will join their counterparts in Darwin to observe the UK Carrier Strike Group in action at Talisman Sabre. UK High Commissioner to Australia Sarah MacIntosh said the arrival of the strike group was a demonstration of commitment to the region and the strong relationship with Canberra. "This is an anchor relationship in a contested world," she said. Dr Bristow said Australia should be welcoming carrier strike groups from European countries. He said NATO had identified China as a threat to its interests as Beijing continues to collaborate with Russia and North Korea. "It's entirely in the interests of European allies in NATO to be working with Indo-Pacific allies," Dr Bristow said. with PA The United Kingdom has underscored its commitment to AUKUS after revealing it will sign a new 50-year treaty with Australia, amid questions over US involvement in the trilateral security pact. The treaty will be inked when Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defence Minister Richard Marles host their UK counterparts David Lammy and John Healey in Sydney on Friday for regular Australia-UK ministerial meetings, according to British news agency PA. "This historic treaty confirms our AUKUS commitment for the next half century," UK Defence Secretary John Healey said. While the AUKUS nuclear submarine partnership involves the US, UK and Australia, the treaty is between the latter two nations, as a Pentagon review into the agreement threatens America's future participation. Australia and the UK are expected to lay out the bilateral aspects of the agreement and explore ways the two countries can work together over the next half-century. In a joint statement, Mr Marles and Senator Wong said the Australia-UK Ministerial Consultations, or AUKMIN, were critical to the two nations' shared interests. "We take the world as it is - but together, we are working to shape it for the better," Senator Wong said. Under the $368 billion AUKUS program, Australia will buy at least three Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines from the US in the early 2030s. A new class of nuclear submarines will be built in Adelaide and delivered in the 2040s. The US had promised to sell Australia nuclear-powered attack submarines under the AUKUS agreement, but President Donald Trump's administration has launched a review into the deal to examine whether it aligns with his "America first" agenda. Defence analysts believe a likely outcome of the US review will be a request for more money from Australia to support its submarine industrial base. The Australian government has said it remains confident in the nuclear-submarine deal being delivered. The UK has fast become one of Australia's most important defence allies amid turmoil under the Trump administration, a security analyst says. Australian Strategic Policy Institute senior analyst Alex Bristow said holding ministerial meetings on a six-monthly cycle, rather than the traditional annual timeline, highlights strengthened ties between the two nations. "The tempo of it increasing, I think, is a signal that Britain is moving into an elite category," he told AAP. The UK was probably third behind Japan and the US in terms of how strategically significant the defence relationship was to Australia, Dr Bristow said. Meanwhile, the UK's Carrier Strike Group, led by the Royal Navy flagship HMS Prince of Wales, arrived in Darwin on Wednesday in the midst of the Talisman Sabre multi-nation military exercises being hosted by Australia. It's the first UK carrier strike group to visit Australia since 1997. The international task group includes five core ships, 24 jets and 17 helicopters, centred on the flagship aircraft carrier. On Sunday, Mr Marles and Senator Wong will join their counterparts in Darwin to observe the UK Carrier Strike Group in action at Talisman Sabre. UK High Commissioner to Australia Sarah MacIntosh said the arrival of the strike group was a demonstration of commitment to the region and the strong relationship with Canberra. "This is an anchor relationship in a contested world," she said. Dr Bristow said Australia should be welcoming carrier strike groups from European countries. He said NATO had identified China as a threat to its interests as Beijing continues to collaborate with Russia and North Korea. "It's entirely in the interests of European allies in NATO to be working with Indo-Pacific allies," Dr Bristow said. with PA The United Kingdom has underscored its commitment to AUKUS after revealing it will sign a new 50-year treaty with Australia, amid questions over US involvement in the trilateral security pact. The treaty will be inked when Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defence Minister Richard Marles host their UK counterparts David Lammy and John Healey in Sydney on Friday for regular Australia-UK ministerial meetings, according to British news agency PA. "This historic treaty confirms our AUKUS commitment for the next half century," UK Defence Secretary John Healey said. While the AUKUS nuclear submarine partnership involves the US, UK and Australia, the treaty is between the latter two nations, as a Pentagon review into the agreement threatens America's future participation. Australia and the UK are expected to lay out the bilateral aspects of the agreement and explore ways the two countries can work together over the next half-century. In a joint statement, Mr Marles and Senator Wong said the Australia-UK Ministerial Consultations, or AUKMIN, were critical to the two nations' shared interests. "We take the world as it is - but together, we are working to shape it for the better," Senator Wong said. Under the $368 billion AUKUS program, Australia will buy at least three Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines from the US in the early 2030s. A new class of nuclear submarines will be built in Adelaide and delivered in the 2040s. The US had promised to sell Australia nuclear-powered attack submarines under the AUKUS agreement, but President Donald Trump's administration has launched a review into the deal to examine whether it aligns with his "America first" agenda. Defence analysts believe a likely outcome of the US review will be a request for more money from Australia to support its submarine industrial base. The Australian government has said it remains confident in the nuclear-submarine deal being delivered. The UK has fast become one of Australia's most important defence allies amid turmoil under the Trump administration, a security analyst says. Australian Strategic Policy Institute senior analyst Alex Bristow said holding ministerial meetings on a six-monthly cycle, rather than the traditional annual timeline, highlights strengthened ties between the two nations. "The tempo of it increasing, I think, is a signal that Britain is moving into an elite category," he told AAP. The UK was probably third behind Japan and the US in terms of how strategically significant the defence relationship was to Australia, Dr Bristow said. Meanwhile, the UK's Carrier Strike Group, led by the Royal Navy flagship HMS Prince of Wales, arrived in Darwin on Wednesday in the midst of the Talisman Sabre multi-nation military exercises being hosted by Australia. It's the first UK carrier strike group to visit Australia since 1997. The international task group includes five core ships, 24 jets and 17 helicopters, centred on the flagship aircraft carrier. On Sunday, Mr Marles and Senator Wong will join their counterparts in Darwin to observe the UK Carrier Strike Group in action at Talisman Sabre. UK High Commissioner to Australia Sarah MacIntosh said the arrival of the strike group was a demonstration of commitment to the region and the strong relationship with Canberra. "This is an anchor relationship in a contested world," she said. Dr Bristow said Australia should be welcoming carrier strike groups from European countries. He said NATO had identified China as a threat to its interests as Beijing continues to collaborate with Russia and North Korea. "It's entirely in the interests of European allies in NATO to be working with Indo-Pacific allies," Dr Bristow said. with PA The United Kingdom has underscored its commitment to AUKUS after revealing it will sign a new 50-year treaty with Australia, amid questions over US involvement in the trilateral security pact. The treaty will be inked when Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defence Minister Richard Marles host their UK counterparts David Lammy and John Healey in Sydney on Friday for regular Australia-UK ministerial meetings, according to British news agency PA. "This historic treaty confirms our AUKUS commitment for the next half century," UK Defence Secretary John Healey said. While the AUKUS nuclear submarine partnership involves the US, UK and Australia, the treaty is between the latter two nations, as a Pentagon review into the agreement threatens America's future participation. Australia and the UK are expected to lay out the bilateral aspects of the agreement and explore ways the two countries can work together over the next half-century. In a joint statement, Mr Marles and Senator Wong said the Australia-UK Ministerial Consultations, or AUKMIN, were critical to the two nations' shared interests. "We take the world as it is - but together, we are working to shape it for the better," Senator Wong said. Under the $368 billion AUKUS program, Australia will buy at least three Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines from the US in the early 2030s. A new class of nuclear submarines will be built in Adelaide and delivered in the 2040s. The US had promised to sell Australia nuclear-powered attack submarines under the AUKUS agreement, but President Donald Trump's administration has launched a review into the deal to examine whether it aligns with his "America first" agenda. Defence analysts believe a likely outcome of the US review will be a request for more money from Australia to support its submarine industrial base. The Australian government has said it remains confident in the nuclear-submarine deal being delivered. The UK has fast become one of Australia's most important defence allies amid turmoil under the Trump administration, a security analyst says. Australian Strategic Policy Institute senior analyst Alex Bristow said holding ministerial meetings on a six-monthly cycle, rather than the traditional annual timeline, highlights strengthened ties between the two nations. "The tempo of it increasing, I think, is a signal that Britain is moving into an elite category," he told AAP. The UK was probably third behind Japan and the US in terms of how strategically significant the defence relationship was to Australia, Dr Bristow said. Meanwhile, the UK's Carrier Strike Group, led by the Royal Navy flagship HMS Prince of Wales, arrived in Darwin on Wednesday in the midst of the Talisman Sabre multi-nation military exercises being hosted by Australia. It's the first UK carrier strike group to visit Australia since 1997. The international task group includes five core ships, 24 jets and 17 helicopters, centred on the flagship aircraft carrier. On Sunday, Mr Marles and Senator Wong will join their counterparts in Darwin to observe the UK Carrier Strike Group in action at Talisman Sabre. UK High Commissioner to Australia Sarah MacIntosh said the arrival of the strike group was a demonstration of commitment to the region and the strong relationship with Canberra. "This is an anchor relationship in a contested world," she said. Dr Bristow said Australia should be welcoming carrier strike groups from European countries. He said NATO had identified China as a threat to its interests as Beijing continues to collaborate with Russia and North Korea. "It's entirely in the interests of European allies in NATO to be working with Indo-Pacific allies," Dr Bristow said. with PA
