Chances increase for a tropical storm system over northern Florida
Even now, it's already having an influence on Florida weather with isolated torrential rain.
"This system is currently producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity," the hurricane center said the afternoon of July 15. However, "little development is expected through tonight while the center is over land."
As a high-pressure system over the northeastern Gulf drifts slowly westward on July 15, it will provide an opening for the system that's over Florida to "mosey westward," said the National Weather Service in Tallahassee.
Once the disturbance moves off Florida's west coast and along the northern Gulf coast, it may encounter more favorable conditions and could strengthen into a potential tropical cyclone later in the week, said Jeffrey Lewitski, one of the center's lead forecasters in a discussion the evening of July 14.
The center has upped the chances of the system becoming a tropical depression or storm to 40% by Wednesday and 40% through Sunday.
Regardless of its chances of becoming the season's fourth named tropical storm, the low-pressure area is forecast to create unsettled weather over Florida as it moves westward to northwestward over the Gulf.
"Some areas will receive multiple rounds of rain for the next couple of days which can lead to localized flooding," said the weather service office in the Ruskin/Tampa Bay. The evening of July 14, a deluge was reported in at least two locations in the Plant City area east of Tampa, the weather service said.
A gauge at the Plant City Police Department recorded 10.62 inches, and a gauge four miles east-southeast of the city reported 9.38 inches of rain.
Up to another inch of rain was expected and the weather service advised people to monitor weather alerts and not to drive into a flooded roadway, especially at night, when water over a road can be notoriously hard to see and can carry a vehicle away when it's moving quickly.
Florida to see rain regardless of storm development
The bulk of the rain is forecast to fall across Central Florida, north and west of Lake Okeechobee, the weather service said.
The disturbance also will increase winds over the Gulf and increase the chances of rough surf and dangerous rip currents for the latter part of the week and possibly the weekend, the hurricane center said.
What would the potential system be named?
If a tropical storm develops, it would be the fourth of the 2025 hurricane season, which started June 1, and would be named Dexter.
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Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about climate change, violent weather and other news. Reach her at dpulver@usatoday.com or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X or dinahvp.77 on Signal.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: National Hurricane Center watches system over northern Florida
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