Affordable homeownership in Ottawa dwindling as mortgages, costs soar: study
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According to the 2024 Housing Needs Assessment, the proportion of homeowners in Ottawa paying $2,000 or more per month for housing costs nearly tripled from 2006 to 2021 (from 11.5 per cent to 34.2 per cent).
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The percentage of homeowners paying between $1,500 and $1,999 per month dipped from 20.4 per cent in 2006 to 17.8 per cent in 2021.
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The proportion of homeowners paying less than $500 per month for housing also decreased by nearly three quarters, while the percentage paying $1,000 and $1,499 a month dropped by almost half.
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The report also said the proportion of homeowners paying between $500 to $999 a month increased slightly from 29.1 per cent in 2006 to 31.5 per cent in 2021.
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'Affordability in Ottawa's ownership market has consistently eroded, with fewer households able to secure housing at lower costs,' the report read.
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'Yet, despite these cost changes, median home prices have remained relatively stable, suggesting that ownership expenses are being driven more by higher borrowing costs, taxes and other financial pressures than by price inflation alone.'
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The report said median housing prices increased by 1.6 per cent year-over-year from December 2023 to December 2024, from $620,000 to $630,000.
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By housing type, the largest increase was in median townhouse prices, which increased from $550,000 to $580,000 (5.5 per cent increase). This is followed by apartments, which increased from $390,000 to $398,000 (2.1 per cent increase) and single-family homes from $750,000 to $755,000 (0.7 per cent increase.
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However, median housing prices jumped by more than 64 per cent since 2018, when the median housing price was $382,952.
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Meanwhile, housing starts have fallen. The number of housing starts peaked between 2020 to 2022, when numbers were consistently above 11,000. However, that number dipped to 9,245 in 2023 and 6,800 in 2024.
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'Housing starts have fallen to a decade-low, limiting future supply growth,' the 2024 Housing Needs Assessment reads.
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'Planned zoning changes may create opportunities for more diverse housing options. Still, with rising development costs and economic constraints on construction, affordability improvements will likely remain constrained in the near term.'
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Core housing need (CHN) is said to be a key measure of housing instability, according to the 2024 Housing Needs Assessment. It identifies households that lack adequate, suitable and affordable housing without access to alternatives in their local market.
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It is also a measure of heightened vulnerability within the housing market, the report added, with many residents spending well beyond affordability thresholds.
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'Households in CHN are not necessarily at risk of homelessness, but do face heightened vulnerability, with many spending well beyond affordability thresholds with few viable options,' the report said.
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According to the report, there were 92,895 people in CHN in Ottawa in 2021. The largest group was those aged 25 to 54 at 34,025 (36.6 per cent). Around 25,295 people were children and youth aged zero to 17 years (27.2 per cent) and 15,220 people were seniors aged 65 years and over (16.4 per cent).
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The groups with the fewest people in CHN were young adults aged 18 to 24 years at 8,630 people (9.3 per cent) and older adults aged 55 to 64 years at 9,725 people (10.5 per cent).
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'Over 25,000 children and youth live in households in core housing need, placing added strain on parents and caregivers who must balance housing costs with other essentials. Children in core housing need may face disruptions in education and social stability, particularly if housing conditions are unstable,' the report read.
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The report also suggested that the number of owner households in CHN decreased from 12,655 in 2016 to 11,865 in 2021.
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Proportionally, 26.7 per cent of all households in CHN in 2021 were owner households. This is a slight decrease from 2016, when it was 26.8 per cent.
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City staff suggested that the decline in homeowner CHN numbers was likely influenced by temporary income supports during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, such as the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB).
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The report noted that many households that briefly exited CHN in 2021 may have re-entered in subsequent years.
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The majority of households in CHN are also considered very low income or low income. Around 62.1 per cent of households (both renters and homeowners) in CHN in 2021 were considered very low income, while 48.1 per cent were considered low income.
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'While the proportion of households in core housing need decreased from 2016 to 2021, this does not necessarily reflect long-term improvement … Core housing need remains prevalent among very low- and low-income households, reinforcing the direct link between affordability and financial constraints,' the report read.
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Ottawa Citizen
06-07-2025
- Ottawa Citizen
Affordable homeownership in Ottawa dwindling as mortgages, costs soar: study
A study from the City of Ottawa suggest that thousands of homeowners are experiencing heightened vulnerability in the housing market due to soaring mortgage rates and costs. Article content According to the 2024 Housing Needs Assessment, the proportion of homeowners in Ottawa paying $2,000 or more per month for housing costs nearly tripled from 2006 to 2021 (from 11.5 per cent to 34.2 per cent). Article content Article content Article content The percentage of homeowners paying between $1,500 and $1,999 per month dipped from 20.4 per cent in 2006 to 17.8 per cent in 2021. Article content Article content The proportion of homeowners paying less than $500 per month for housing also decreased by nearly three quarters, while the percentage paying $1,000 and $1,499 a month dropped by almost half. Article content The report also said the proportion of homeowners paying between $500 to $999 a month increased slightly from 29.1 per cent in 2006 to 31.5 per cent in 2021. Article content 'Affordability in Ottawa's ownership market has consistently eroded, with fewer households able to secure housing at lower costs,' the report read. Article content 'Yet, despite these cost changes, median home prices have remained relatively stable, suggesting that ownership expenses are being driven more by higher borrowing costs, taxes and other financial pressures than by price inflation alone.' Article content Article content The report said median housing prices increased by 1.6 per cent year-over-year from December 2023 to December 2024, from $620,000 to $630,000. Article content By housing type, the largest increase was in median townhouse prices, which increased from $550,000 to $580,000 (5.5 per cent increase). This is followed by apartments, which increased from $390,000 to $398,000 (2.1 per cent increase) and single-family homes from $750,000 to $755,000 (0.7 per cent increase. Article content However, median housing prices jumped by more than 64 per cent since 2018, when the median housing price was $382,952. Article content Meanwhile, housing starts have fallen. The number of housing starts peaked between 2020 to 2022, when numbers were consistently above 11,000. However, that number dipped to 9,245 in 2023 and 6,800 in 2024. Article content 'Housing starts have fallen to a decade-low, limiting future supply growth,' the 2024 Housing Needs Assessment reads. Article content 'Planned zoning changes may create opportunities for more diverse housing options. Still, with rising development costs and economic constraints on construction, affordability improvements will likely remain constrained in the near term.' Article content Core housing need (CHN) is said to be a key measure of housing instability, according to the 2024 Housing Needs Assessment. It identifies households that lack adequate, suitable and affordable housing without access to alternatives in their local market. Article content It is also a measure of heightened vulnerability within the housing market, the report added, with many residents spending well beyond affordability thresholds. Article content 'Households in CHN are not necessarily at risk of homelessness, but do face heightened vulnerability, with many spending well beyond affordability thresholds with few viable options,' the report said. Article content Article content According to the report, there were 92,895 people in CHN in Ottawa in 2021. The largest group was those aged 25 to 54 at 34,025 (36.6 per cent). Around 25,295 people were children and youth aged zero to 17 years (27.2 per cent) and 15,220 people were seniors aged 65 years and over (16.4 per cent). Article content The groups with the fewest people in CHN were young adults aged 18 to 24 years at 8,630 people (9.3 per cent) and older adults aged 55 to 64 years at 9,725 people (10.5 per cent). Article content 'Over 25,000 children and youth live in households in core housing need, placing added strain on parents and caregivers who must balance housing costs with other essentials. Children in core housing need may face disruptions in education and social stability, particularly if housing conditions are unstable,' the report read. Article content The report also suggested that the number of owner households in CHN decreased from 12,655 in 2016 to 11,865 in 2021. Article content Article content Proportionally, 26.7 per cent of all households in CHN in 2021 were owner households. This is a slight decrease from 2016, when it was 26.8 per cent. Article content City staff suggested that the decline in homeowner CHN numbers was likely influenced by temporary income supports during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, such as the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB). Article content The report noted that many households that briefly exited CHN in 2021 may have re-entered in subsequent years. Article content The majority of households in CHN are also considered very low income or low income. Around 62.1 per cent of households (both renters and homeowners) in CHN in 2021 were considered very low income, while 48.1 per cent were considered low income. Article content 'While the proportion of households in core housing need decreased from 2016 to 2021, this does not necessarily reflect long-term improvement … Core housing need remains prevalent among very low- and low-income households, reinforcing the direct link between affordability and financial constraints,' the report read.
CBC
28-06-2025
- CBC
City warns of surge in homeless population by 2035
A city report says that Ottawa's homeless population could surge by almost 60 per cent over the next decade without substantial investments in affordable housing. The city released its housing needs assessment on Friday. Its modelling estimates that, under a business-as-usual scenario, Ottawa could have a total of 14,734 people experiencing homelessness annually by 2035. That's up from 9,326 currently. Those figures represent people who enter a homeless shelter at any time during the year, rather than the number of people who are homeless at a specific point in time. The point-in-time number, collected every four years through a citywide count, reached 2,952 in October 2024 — 78.5 per cent higher than in 2018. Friday's report lays out the pressures that are driving people into homelessness. The city's population is growing, and more of those people are from vulnerable groups like renters, single parents and fixed-income seniors. Housing costs are growing faster than wages, creating an affordability gap. The waiting list for rent-geared-to-income units has swelled beyond 15,000, leaving people waiting years for affordable housing. "These are provincial and national trends, and they're going to intensify," said Jesse Donaldson, executive vice president of HelpSeeker Technologies, which performed the modelling for the city. "The extent to which the housing pressures will continue and escalate over the coming years — next year, five, 10 years — is so significant that it requires a proportional response." City needs help to fund thousands of housing units To keep up with those pressures, the report estimates that the city will have to add almost 129,000 new housing units over the next decade. More than 10,550 of those units should be affordable, provided through a combination of supportive, transitional and public housing, as well as rent subsidies. If that happens, the model predicts that people would exit homelessness more quickly than others would lose housing, so the number of homeless people would eventually drop to near zero. The city does not have an estimate of how much that will cost. That will come later, through an update to the city's 10-year housing and homelessness plan. But Kale Brown, the city's interim director of housing and homelessness services, said the figure is sufficiently high that there's little chance the city can handle the cost on its own. "We would certainly need more sustained and significant funding from senior levels of government," he said. The federal government has already pledged $176 million to Ottawa over three years through its housing accelerator fund. Brown said the cost of not acting — and adding thousands of homeless people to shelters or encampments — is far greater. "We would anticipate much larger costs on emergency services, hospital services, that kind of thing," he said. "It is imperative that we do the cheaper solution over the long term." The report draws from a long list of data sources, including the city's point-in-time count of the homeless population, as well as statistics from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and the census. Here are some of the key data points and findings for Ottawa: Ottawa is projected to have about 118,000 more households by 2035. Renters are expected to make up about 43 per cent of all households by 2035, up from about 36 per cent in 2021. The median monthly rent has increased 61.3 per cent from 2014 to 2024. Household incomes have grown more slowly, rising 46.4 per cent from 2006 to 2021. The percentage of renter households paying $2,000 or more per month increased from 1.3 per cent in 2006 to 17.1 per cent in 2021. 23 per cent of renter households live in housing that is unaffordable, unsuitable or inadequate. The vacancy rate for affordable rental units is substantially lower than high-rent housing; for units affordable to the lowest income households, the rate is effectively zero. Social assistance rates remain far below market rents. The waiting list of rent-geared-to-income housing has grown 36.8 per cent from 2022 to 2024, reaching 15,140 households in December 2024. The average wait varies between 4.2 years and 7.6 years, depending on the number of people in the household and whether they have children.
CBC
16-10-2024
- CBC
Data gaps a challenge for assessing Yellowknife's housing needs, committee hears
A consulting firm that's been hired to assess Yellowknife's housing needs says there are gaps in the data, and more research is needed to get an accurate picture. The city's governance and priorities committee heard some initial findings from the consulting firm Urban Systems on Tuesday. The firm is working on a Housing Needs Assessment (HNA), which looks at how many housing units are needed in the city, who is in greatest need, how to address affordability, and future growth implications. The work follows an announcement earlier this year of $8.4-million in funding from the federal government aimed at speeding up housing development in Yellowknife. One of the priority projects includes developing a HNA. Jake Papineau, a consultant with Urban Systems, told the city committee that accurate data is lacking when it comes to rental prices. "What we found is that maybe some of the CMHC [Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation] data doesn't tell the full story of what is happening within the community," said Papineau. The CMHC numbers suggest that bachelor apartments go for an average of $1,300 per month, while a three-bedroom unit goes averages about $2,250. Coun. Rob Warburton agreed that those numbers are off. "Similar to my colleagues, I'm really excited to hear that there's some caution with the data with rental and vacancy rates — because from our experience, rents are way higher and vacancy is closer to zero," said Warburton According to Papineau, fewer new housing units have been completed in the city in recent years. He said that from 2012 to 2017, there were between 99 and 151 new units each year, but from 2018 to 2023, that dropped to between 15 and 55 new housing units each year. According to Papineau, Yellowknife's population is projected to grow by 9.6 per cent, to about 22,400 people by 2035. That's based on household data, birth and death rates, and other stats from the territorial government, he said. That population growth means Yellowknife will require an additional 1,060 housing units of various types, though Papineau cautioned that those projected numbers will likely fluctuate. "It seems like the city's economy is another point of transition, and so some of the folks that we engaged through our discussion have indicated that there is a little bit of nervousness — but when we look at employment, the overall employment basis is fairly stable," said Papineau. The consultants also told councillors about challenges in connecting with Indigenous groups to hear about the city's housing needs. Papineau said he hopes a call from the mayor on behalf of the firm may help bridge the gap. Coun. Steve Payne said at the meeting that he believes a lot of the responsibility for the city's current housing challenges falls on current and past councils, but he hopes some recent initiatives will help change the trajectory. "If we take care of housing, then everything else won't really fall into place but it's going to be a lot better to get things working," Payne said. "Now we got some money from the feds, finally there's money that's going to be for something good." Urban Systems also said its consultations have included discussion of other ideas such as office-building conversion, bulk building materials purchasing, first-time home buyer supports, unique housing types (for example, tiny homes), improving transit, and increasing housing education. Papineau said the plan is to continue developing the HNA report and explore further opportunities for public engagement. The work is expected to be complete by the end of the year.
