A New Political Alliance Offers an Inkling into BJP's Plans on J&K's Statehood

The Wire

11 hours ago

Jehangir Ali
a minute ago
Some political analysts believe that international focus on the region as a result of the recent military conflict between India and Pakistan in May this year and the offer of mediation on Kashmir by the United States has changed the regional scenario.
Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Conference (JKPC) President Sajad Lone addresses a press conference regarding the formation of 'People's Alliance for Change', a new political front comprising JKPC, People's Democratic Front and Jamaat-e-Islami-backed Justice and Development Front, in Srinagar, Monday, June 30, 2025. Photo: PTI
Srinagar: Amid speculation on the restoration of Jammu and Kashmir's statehood, a new alliance has taken shape in the Union territory between the Peoples Conference led by Sajad Lone, the Justice and Development Front, a splinter group of the outlawed Jamaat-e-Islami and Hakim Yasin's People's Democratic Front (PDF).
Some political analysts believe that international focus on the region as a result of the recent military conflict between India and Pakistan in May this year and the offer of mediation on Kashmir by the United States has changed the regional scenario in South Asia. It may also spark some political changes in Jammu and Kashmir.
Srinagar-based political analyst and senior human rights activist, Sheikh Showkat Hussain, said that the changed scenario may make the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP)-led Union government extend 'some concessions' to the political parties in J&K. 'One of them could be the restoration of J&K's statehood."
Hussain, who retired as head and dean of the School of Legal Studies at the Central University of Kashmir, said, 'As a preemptive measure, they may go for fresh election and would like a fractured mandate in Kashmir so that they (BJP) can go an alliance of the type they had with PDP previously'.
All eyes on parliament session
Speculation is rife that the Union government could bring a bill restoring J&K's statehood in the parliament which will convene for the monsoon session from July 21.
While the contours of the bill remain in the realm of speculations, The Wire has previously reported that it could pave the way for fresh assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir.
Although the three political parties have limited electoral influence with only one member (Lone) in the J&K assembly, some analysts believe that their coming together was part of a design to fracture the mandate in the Kashmir Valley.
Rekha Chowdhary, senior academic and former professor of Political Science at the University of Jammu, said that the alliance indicates that the Peoples Conference led by Lone was playing on a weak wicket.
The alliance's ability to stage electoral upsets in case of fresh election largely depends on its ability to convince the Jamaat sympathisers to cast their votes in their favour and embrace the mainstream.
The Jamaat's advisory council including its chief Abdul Hameed Fayaz are languishing in jail along with several other Jamaat leaders and activists.
Turbulence in Jamaat
The Jamaat's splinter group, which has formed the alliance with Lone's PC, has only two well-known faces from the outfit in its ranks – former general secretary Ghulam Qadir Lone from north Kashmir, whose son, Kalimullah Lone, unsuccessfully contested from Langate constituency in 2024 assembly election, and Ghulam Qadir Wani, a basic member (rukun) from south Kashmir's Pulwama.
Peoples Conference's Irfan Sultan Pandithpuri lost the Langate assembly seat by some 1,500 votes in a triangular contest with Sheikh Khursheed, the brother of Engineer Rashid who won the seat by polling 25,625 votes while Lone came in distant fifth place with just 3463 votes.
A Srinagar-based political analyst, who has written extensively about the Jamaat said that Lone and Wani were not part of the outfit's Majlis-e-Shora or the advisory council when it was banned by the Union home ministry.
'The Jamaat has hundreds of basic members and its constitution doesn't allow the formation of a parallel party. Only the council can take a call on participating in elections,' he said, referring to the expulsion of late Hurriyat hawk Syed Ali Geelani, his political secretary Pir Hissamudin and others from the outfit in 2004.
The expulsion of Geelani and others took place in the backdrop of allegations that the Jamaat had tacitly enabled the coming to power of the PDP led by late Mufti Mohammad Sayeed in the 2002 assembly election.
Hissamudin was killed by unknown gunmen soon after the Tehreek-e-Hurriyat, a parallel political outfit, was floated and headed by Geelani against the Jamaat.
Hussain said that following the ban in 2019, some former and present Jamaat members may have developed political ambitions.
'They used the name of the Jamaat in the 2024 assembly election. They have assumed a different name now because of resistance from the (Jamaat) cadre. One can only speculate at this point because the Jamaat leaders are in jail but the name change in itself is an indication of the differences within the group,' he said.
Fracturing the mandate
While the new alliance aligns with the BJP's broader strategy of having a third political force capable of competing with the two dominant parties in the Kashmir Valley – the ruling NC and the PDP, it is for some a stark reflection of Sajad Lone's dimming fortunes.
'Despite trying to strengthen his party, Lone lost one seat in the 2024 assembly election and won only one and that too with a narrow margin. He has not been successful in expanding his constituency and instead ended up on the losing side. This alliance reflects how badly the PC is requiring external support for expanding its ground base,' Chowdhary said.
Hussain, however, said that the BJP would like to divide the voters in Kashmir 'so that there are so many parties that it becomes easy for them (BJP) to manage the outcome (in case of fresh assembly election)'.
A leader of the new alliance, who spoke with The Wire on the condition of anonymity, rejected the speculation, saying that the three parties had reached an understanding that they could cash in on the 'widespread sentiment against the NC due to its refusal to take a tough stand against New Delhi while failing to fulfil its electoral promises'.
'The alliance's electoral ambitions also don't overlap. For instance, the PC is strong in Kupwara and Pattan while the JDF has presence in south Kashmir, parts of Budgam and Baramulla districts,' he added.
Chowdhary also said that there was 'some volatility' in the political atmosphere in Kashmir with the narrative of Omar Abdullah versus Syed Aga Ruhullah gaining traction in recent months amid growing resentment against the party's performance after it came to power last year.
'Whether this is only a narrative remains to be seen but the situation is more unsettled now rather than being settled and it seems anything is possible. In case of fresh elections, there could be defections within the parties and who knows which parties are going to be hit,' she said.
BJP's road to power?
Chowdhary said that the BJP would aim for a repeat of its 2014 performance if a fresh assembly election was held in Jammu and Kashmir. The saffron party swept the Jammu region after riding the Modi wave and formed a coalition government with the PDP which emerged as the single largest party.
In Kashmir, the party would ideally seek support this time from smaller parties other than NC and PDP.
Hussain said that the BJP's policies have pushed the whole country on the 'wrong side of history' including in the Middle East, recent developments vis-a-vis the India-Pakistan conflict and US president Donald Trump's claims of having brokered a ceasefire might force a change.
'These experiments (new alliances) are aimed to create electoral divisions in Kashmir so that people vote for local parties. Their basic purpose is to create a situation in which the mandate in Kashmir remains tied to the party which comes to power in Jammu, be it the BJP or the Congress'.
Chowdhary said that the Jamaat has been an ideological rival of the NC but in terms of electoral politics, it hasn't been able to put up a good show in its history.
'The alliance feels more like a pressure tactic and the coming together of odds rather than a factor that could change the situation on the ground. In its history, the Jamaat has performed well only with the blessings of the Union government. It was a proxy for the Congress in 1972 when it put up its best performance by winning five seats. Whose proxy it was in the 2024 election and whether it will continue to remain a proxy, given the prevailing ban, remains to be seen.'
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