Despite Global Headwinds, Domestic Demand and Prudent Investment drive Small Business Optimism- ASSOCHAM-Dun & Bradstreet's Small Business Confidence Index

Business Standard

13-06-2025

PRNewswire
Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India], June 13: ASSOCHAM along with Dun & Bradstreet, a leading global provider of business decisioning data and analytics, has released its Small Business Confidence Index for Apr-Jun 2025 quarter. The findings from the Index, which tracks the optimism of small and medium enterprises in India, indicate a slight decline in small business sentiment, with the confidence index edging down by 1.8% in Apr-Jun 2025 quarter compared to the previous quarter, settling at 105.4. This suggests a more cautious outlook among small business executives. However, the index remains notably strong--up 6% year-over-year and well above the long-term average--signaling that overall optimism continues to hold steady.
"The findings of the ASSOCHAM-Dun & Bradstreet Small Business Confidence Index reflect a phase of cautious optimism among India's small businesses, especially due to global uncertainties and supply chain disruptions. However, it is encouraging to note the underlying strength of domestic demand, improved hiring intentions and expectations of better financing access as monetary conditions ease. ASSOCHAM remains committed to working closely with all stakeholders to create a conducive environment for economic prosperity,'' said ASSOCHAM President Mr. Sanjay Nayar.
"This edition of the Small Business Confidence Index highlights the nuanced sentiments among small businesses. A modest decline in the Confidence Index reflects a measured approach adopted by small businesses amid global trade challenges. The broader picture, however, remains positive, with strong domestic fundamentals. The small business segment continues to be a vital driver of the Indian economy. In order for them to thrive, better financing prospects, policy continuity and predictability, and convergent efforts of stakeholders will help them navigate short-term headwinds and achieve sustained growth," said ASSOCHAM Secretary-General Mr. Manish Singhal.
The ASSOCHAM-D & B Small Business Confidence Index for Apr-Jun 2025 reveals cautious recalibration amid rising global uncertainties. While domestic demand remains strong, export order expectations plunged 17 points from Jan-Mar 2025, driven by frontloaded shipments before the April 2 U.S. tariff hike and weakening global trade. Net profit expectations dropped 6 points, and selling price optimism fell 13 points, highlighting growing margin pressures from cost volatility and subdued pricing power.
"The ASSOCHAM-D & B Small Business Confidence Index for Apr-Jun 2025 quarter reflects a resilient but cautious sentiment among small businesses. Steady domestic orders, and an improved hiring outlook point to underlying strength supported by robust domestic demand. However, the sharp decline in export order expectations amid global trade tensions, particularly following U.S. tariff announcements, highlights external vulnerabilities. While small businesses are leveraging domestic tailwinds, margin pressures from rising costs and softer global demand are prompting a more conservative approach to pricing and inventory management. Sustained recovery will hinge on businesses maintaining operational agility and adapting to evolving global trade dynamics," said Mr. Avinash Gupta, Managing Director, Dun & Bradstreet India.
Firms report mounting margin pressures as weakened pricing power, volatile input costs, and ongoing supply-chain bottlenecks force them into lean inventory practices rather than bulk restocking. Investment plans have been scaled back, with fixed capital outlays moderating amid global headwinds, even as stronger hiring intentions reflect cautious optimism about domestic demand. At the same time, credit access is now seen as 'normal' rather than 'easy,' suggesting tighter lending standards despite recent RBI rate cuts. Nevertheless, businesses remain hopeful that continued monetary easing will gradually restore more accommodating financing conditions.
"Small businesses are standing at a critical crossroads, balancing robust domestic momentum against intensifying global headwinds, as reflected in the ASSOCHAM-D & B SBCI Index. The uptick in domestic orders, hiring sentiment, and capacity utilization reflects confidence supported by resilient consumption trends and a stable policy environment. However, the sharp fall in export order expectations, combined with weakening pricing power and more cautious investment and credit outlooks, shows firms are recalibrating strategies amid trade risks and global demand uncertainty. Despite these headwinds, Dun & Bradstreet data highlights India's advantage in sectors such as specialty chemicals, electrical machinery, and home textiles. Looking ahead, India-U.S. trade agreements will be pivotal; varying tariffs could reshape export dynamics. To remain resilient, small businesses must sharpen domestic focus, optimize capital allocation, and adapt swiftly to shifting global trade policies," said Dr Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist, Dun & Bradstreet.
As the external environment becomes more uncertain, sustaining confidence will hinge on how effectively businesses can adapt, by managing input costs, preserving margins, and aligning investment strategies with evolving market conditions. Strengthening domestic enablers while mitigating external vulnerabilities will be crucial for maintaining the growth momentum of India's small business sector in the quarters ahead.
About ASSOCHAM:
The Associated Chambers of Commerce & Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) is the country's oldest apex The Associated Chambers of Commerce & Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) is the country's oldest apex chamber. It delivers actionable insights to strengthen the Indian ecosystem, leveraging its extensive network of over 450,000 corporate members, with MSMEs forming a significant segment. With a strong presence across Indian States and key cities, ASSOCHAM also includes more than 100 associations, federations, and regional chambers.
Aligned with the vision of building a Viksit Bharat, ASSOCHAM serves as a vital link between industry and government. As an agile and forward-looking institution, the Chamber spearheads various initiatives aimed at enhancing the global competitiveness of Indian industry while reinforcing the domestic business environment.
With over 70 national and regional sector councils, ASSOCHAM effectively represents diverse segments of Indian industry. These councils are led by prominent industry leaders, academicians, economists, and independent professionals, and focus on aligning industry priorities with the nation's growth aspirations.
ASSOCHAM is currently driving four strategic priorities: Sustainability, Globalization, Startups & Innovation, and the Digital Economy. The Chamber believes that focused efforts in these areas are key to fostering inclusive and sustainable socio-economic development.
In collaboration with the government, regulators, and national and international think tanks, ASSOCHAM contributes to policy formulation and provides critical feedback on the implementation of high-impact decisions. Staying future-ready, the Chamber is also cultivating a robust network of knowledge architects to help shape India's transition into a technology-driven, knowledge-based economy. ASSOCHAM aims to empower stakeholders by promoting knowledge as the catalyst for growth in a dynamic global environment.
Beyond industry engagement, ASSOCHAM actively supports civil society through initiatives focused on inclusive development. Its member network leads efforts across a wide range of sectors including empowerment, healthcare, education and skill development, hygiene, affirmative action, road safety, livelihoods, life skills, and sustainability.
More information available on www.assocham.org
About Dun & Bradstreet:
Dun & Bradstreet, a leading global provider of business decisioning data and analytics, enables companies around the world to improve their business performance. Dun & Bradstreet's Data Cloud fuels solutions and delivers insights that empower customers to accelerate revenue, lower cost, mitigate risk and transform their businesses. Since 1841, companies of every size have relied on Dun & Bradstreet to help them manage risk and reveal opportunity. For more information on Dun & Bradstreet, please visit www.dnb.com.
Dun & Bradstreet Information Services India Private Limited is headquartered in Mumbai and provides clients with data-driven products and technology-driven platforms to help them take faster and more accurate decisions across finance, risk, compliance, information technology and marketing. Working towards Government of India's vision of creating an Atmanirbhar Bharat (Self-Reliant India) by supporting the Make in India initiative, Dun & Bradstreet India has a special focus on helping entrepreneurs enhance their visibility, increase their credibility, expand access to global markets, and identify potential customers & suppliers, while managing risk and opportunity.
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