How a new Carney-backed pipeline could spoil Trump's plans for Canada's oil

Yahoo

6 days ago

WASHINGTON, D.C. — It's 'build, baby, build' versus 'drill, baby, drill.'
Prime Minister Mark Carney has promised to transform Canada into an 'energy superpower.' His build-baby rallying cry for a construction boom even echoes U.S. President Donald Trump's drill-baby slogan for increased oil and gas. But when it comes to a new pipeline for Canada, their two visions could clash.
'Canada has a tremendous opportunity to be the world's leading energy superpower, in both clean and conventional energy,' Carney said in April. 'We can lead the energy transition while ensuring affordable energy at home and building the strongest economy in the G7.'
The prime minister said this month that it's 'highly, highly likely' that a new oil pipeline to the Pacific Coast will be proposed as a nation-building project and fast-tracked under new federal legislation aimed at accelerating projects of 'national interest.' Boosters of the pipeline plan see Canada maximizing its oil export revenues and diversifying its customer base after decades of being captive to U.S. buyers, perhaps reshaping North American energy flows.
Trump, meanwhile, has said he wants to resuscitate the Keystone XL pipeline, the long-contested project that was supposed to carry nearly a million barrels of Alberta oil a day to the U.S. Midwest. He promised 'easy approvals' for investors willing to try it again, after it was blocked twice by two different Democratic presidents and its original backer, TC Energy, gave up.
Any new pipeline will face political and regulatory hurdles on both sides of the border, and in March Trump hit Canadian oil imports with a 10 per cent tariff.
The pipeline politicking could deepen the trade-war rift between Ottawa and Washington. It could also unexpectedly reshape the future of a North American energy market that has been increasingly tightly integrated since the middle of the last century.
Last weekend, while attending the Calgary Stampede, Carney said that Ottawa is prepared to prioritize a new pipeline from Alberta to the Pacific. During the recent federal election, he had promised to reduce Canada's reliance on the U.S. — a whopping 93 per cent of Canada's crude oil is shipped south of the border each year — by launching infrastructure projects and diversifying to new markets. Ottawa is keen to reduce Canada's dependence on a single customer, especially amid Trump's trade war.
Building a new pipeline would signal that Canada is getting serious about reaching Asian markets with its oil. China has become the second-largest buyer of oil shipped through the new Trans Mountain expansion, which opened just over a year ago (the U.S. is still buying the most). And the extra market access has shrunk the typical discount Canadian oil long had to give its sole buyer by around a third.
Getting more efficient at producing crude oil while ensuring sales go to more than just one export partner gives Canada 'a little more stability,' said Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group's global macro practice.
But it could also annoy Trump, who puts a premium on loyalty to the U.S., said Kent Fellows, a professor of economics at the University of Calgary School of Public Policy, who specializes in energy issues.
If building the pipeline is all about supplying demand in new markets without disrupting the flow to the U.S., then 'that's not really threatening to the United States in any way,' said Dan Stein, a former senior advisor at the Bureau of Energy Resources for the U.S. State Department. But if the idea is to divert supplies away from the U.S., 'then it's a different story.'
Washington 'might not love the politics of Canada saying 'Hey, we're going to find some other export partners',' added Thompson. 'But the amount being exported to the U.S. has gone up substantially in recent years, and there's no reason to think that would decline.' On the other hand, if China becomes one of those export markets for Canadian energy, that could cause a bigger diplomatic challenge, he warned.
But Carney isn't the only leader with pipeline dreams.
Trump suggested in February that he wanted to revive the Keystone XL project. The president sees it as a way to strengthen the American energy security market by ramping up oil deliveries from Canada while reducing U.S. reliance on oil imports from volatile regions around the world.
But Trump's push for Keystone XL also fits with a broader strategy to create a bargaining chip in U.S.-Canada trade relations. By signalling support for the pipeline, Trump is offering Carney a potential win — with expanded access to the U.S. market — in exchange for concessions.
President Joe Biden cancelled Keystone XL in 2021 (after Trump approved it in his first term, after president Barack Obama blocked it in his second term). So promoting it again has the added benefit for Trump of undermining his predecessor's legacy. In February, Trump urged TC Energy to come back to the plan and 'get it built — NOW.' But TC has since spun off its oil business and the subsidiary has said it's not interested.
Resurrecting Keystone XL would be a 'tougher decision for Carney than it would be for (Alberta Premier Danielle) Smith,' says Fellows, because Carney is supposed to balance the interests of all provinces. Smith, meanwhile, is representing Alberta's interest, and crude oil is the province's biggest sector.
Thompson isn't so sure. 'If there was an economic case for (Keystone XL), if there was a private actor who came and said 'let's resuscitate this project,' in the current environment, maybe there's a better chance of it getting done,' he says.
Even if Trump and Carney could agree on a path forward for Keystone XL, it would still be a struggle to get the pipeline built. Government permits have expired and initial construction has been dismantled. Still, with the plan well advanced, it wouldn't start from scratch.
But Canada agreeing to go back to Keystone XL is 'sort of like going back to an abusive partner,' Fellows said, given the political football it was made into by Democratic and Republican presidents.
And something else Carney and Trump have in common is it seems they're both racing to maximize their country's strategic position as they tussle over trade. For Trump, a revived Keystone XL pipeline locking in more Canadian oil for U.S. use must look like an advantage. With no one eagerly stepping up to build it, Carney might be just as happy if it stays dead.
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