CNBC Daily Open: There's no return policy for jobs numbers

CNBC

a day ago

After U.S. jobs figures for May and June were revised significantly downward by the Bureau of Labor Statistics — slashing a combined 258,000 from previous figures — President Donald Trump, imputing political bias and data manipulation to BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, revised her employment status to "terminated."
Government officials from both sides of the political aisle had plenty to say about that.
"Bottom line, Trump wants to cook the books," said Ron Wyden, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee. Meanwhile, Republican Senator Rand Paul told NBC News that "you can't really make the numbers different or better by firing the people doing the counting."
The move, indeed, does have a whiff of the Chinese government, in August 2023, stopping the release of youth unemployment rates because they were spiking to record highs. (Beijing resumed disseminating the data in January 2024.)
A falling tree makes a sound, regardless of whether there's anyone around to hear it. Terminating the person who reports that noise won't suck sound waves back into a vacuum either.
Markets, too, were vocal in their response to Trump's firing of McEntarfer as well as the dismal jobs report. On Friday, the three major U.S. indexes had their worst day in months, a sharp turn from the week prior, which saw consecutive days of record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.
This changes the calculus. With new tariffs due to take effect Aug. 7 — which could further slow hiring in the U.S. because of increased costs and uncertainties for companies — both the economy and markets might weaken further. Then it becomes a matter of whether the "TACO trade" — "Trump Always Chickens Out" — will, in the words of The Terminator, be back.Cracks appear in the U.S. jobs market. Nonfarm payrolls in July grew 73,000, lower than the Dow Jones estimate of a 100,000 gain. Unemployment edged up 10 basis points to 4.2%. June and May's jobs numbers were revised dramatically lower.
Trump fires commissioner of labor statistics after jobs report. In a Truth Social post, the U.S. president accused BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer of being a political appointee who "faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election" and providing inaccurate data.
Stocks suffer their worst day in months. On Friday, the S&P 500 lost 1.6%, its worst day since May 21, breaking a 26-day streak when the index's moves remained within a 1% range. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index fell 1.89%, its biggest drop since April.
Berkshire Hathaway's operating profit drops. Year over year, Warren Buffet's conglomerate experienced a 4% drop in second-quarter earnings to $11.16 billion. Berkshire warned of Trump's tariffs and their impact on its businesses.
[PRO] August is historically the second worst month for the S&P 500. That's according to the Stock Trader's Almanac, which tracks data back to 1988. Tariff developments and AI-related earnings during the week will give a sign of whether history will repeat itself.
Switzerland's tariff shock: The 39% U.S. hit no one saw coming
The U.S.' imposition of a 39% tariff rate on Switzerland's came as a shock to the Alpine nation. Indications in the Swiss press had been that the country was close to negotiating an outline deal similar to those struck by the European Union, the U.K. and Japan, which set baseline tariffs between 10% and 15%.
Instead, it has received one of the highest rates of any country. That is a significant blow, with the U.S. accounting for around a sixth of Switzerland's total exports.