No scope for rate cuts with inflation outside tolerance band, Hungary central banker says
The bank left its base rate on hold at the European Union's joint highest level of 6.5% for the ninth straight month in June while inflation rebounds despite efforts by Prime Minister Viktor Orban's government to tame it ahead of a 2026 election.
Hungary and neighbouring Romania recorded the 27-member bloc's highest inflation rates in the first quarter based on EU data, preventing rate cuts despite slowing growth in Romania and protracted stagnation in Hungary.
Deputy Governor Zoltan Kurali said with inflation rebounding to 4.4% in May, there was "nothing to discuss" in terms of policy easing, despite the bank's latest forecasts projecting hardly any economic growth for a third successive year.
"A single headline inflation reading dipping into our (2% to 4%) tolerance band is not a sufficient condition on its own for us to consider easing monetary conditions," he said in an interview late on Tuesday.
"Inflation needs to return sustainably toward the 3% target on the policy horizon," said Kurali, a former investment banker and head of Hungary's debt agency AKK, who joined the bank in April.
Kurali avoided direct comment to questions on whether the bank had any room to lower interest rates this year and said the bank was currently not providing forward guidance.
But with its June forecasts showing inflation exceeding the bank's target range all year, Kurali's comments suggest the bank is all but certain to avoid rate cuts despite lingering analyst bets on a small reduction by the end of 2025.
Asked why the prolonged weakness of Hungary's economy has failed to rein in price growth, Kurali said high inflation expectations played a key role and justified keeping monetary conditions tight.
He said the forint's recent stability versus the euro would have a dampening impact on inflation and inflation expectations via the FX transmission channel, and it was positive that monetary transmission worked effectively in money markets.
However, with Orban's government imposing controls on food prices and forcing telecoms companies, banks and insurers to forego planned fee hikes until after the 2026 election, the risk of an inflation rebound looms when they adjust prices again.
Kurali also said the bank was reviewing its international reserves management strategy to make it "more active and more flexible," while firmly ruling out the inclusion of any crypto assets. He said the strategy would "not be drastically different from current practice".
"There will be no crypto in any shape or form," he said of the bank's reserves, which stood at 45.8 billion euros ($54.0 billion) at the end of May, consisting mostly of euro-denominated assets and gold.
($1 = 0.8485 euros)
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