Will Reliance shares deliver bumper returns for 48 lakh shareholders? 3 game-changing triggers ahead

Economic Times

a day ago

Despite recent investor disappointment with Q1 results, Reliance Industries (RIL) is poised for significant growth, according to major brokerages. Jio's rising ARPU through tariff hikes, the ambitious new energy business entering execution phase, and the potential Jio IPO are key catalysts. Analysts project substantial value creation, with targets indicating confidence in RIL's transformation.
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Here are 3 growth triggers that can ignite a rally in RIL shares:
1) Jio's ARPU Explosion Through Strategic Tariff Hikes
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2) New Energy Business: The Next Opportunity
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3) Jio IPO: The Ultimate Value Crystallization Event
While billionaire Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries RIL ) disappointed investors with Q1 results that fell short of street expectations, leading to sharp selling pressure after a blistering 25% rally from March lows, major brokerages see a perfect storm of growth catalysts brewing that could trigger substantial value creation in the months ahead.The mixed street reaction tells the tale of two stories: Kotak Equities downgraded the blue-chip Nifty heavyweight to 'Add' from 'Buy,' while global giants JP Morgan and Jefferies boldly upgraded their target prices by 8% and 5% respectively, signaling confidence in the oil-to-telecom giant's transformation story.Jio delivered a "strong beat on higher margins" with ARPU climbing 1.3% quarter-on-quarter to ₹208.8 per month, according to Bernstein. But the real fireworks are yet to come."Over FY25-28, we expect Jio's ARPU to rise at 11% CAGR to Rs273, led by three tariff hikes of 10% each in end-2QFY26/27/28," Jefferies analysts project, with rising share of higher-ARPU home broadband users providing additional momentum.The telecom powerhouse added 498.1 million subscribers (+1.7% QoQ) with EBITDA margins surging to 51.8% (170bps QoQ), as consolidated revenue hit ₹410.5 billion (+18.8% YoY).RIL's ambitious new energy push is entering the critical execution phase, with management expecting "Giga factories/new energy projects (Polysilicon, wafer, cell, module, batteries) to be completed in the next four to six quarters."The scale is staggering: "Reliance gigacomplex will be the largest end-to-end renewable energy manufacturing 4x of Tesla giga factory," Bernstein notes. The company plans to commission solar/cell capacities by March next year, with the 7,000-acre Kutch site having "potential to produce 125GW of power."Nuvama's analysis reveals the hidden value bomb: "Drawing a solar module/cell capacity comparison with Waaree (13.3/5.4GW) and Premier (4/3.2GW), whose EVs are ~$10 bn and $6 bn, respectively, RIL's 20GW fully integrated solar equipment manufacturing facility could potentially translate to a much higher EV."The numbers are eye-popping: "Ascribing a 15x EV/EBITDA to RIL's modules business (20GW capacity) yields an EV of USD20bn, which could trigger a valuation re-rating for RIL's stock price—similar to the trend seen following RJIO's launch in 2017."This fundamental shift in RIL's business model is reshaping its investment appeal. "Prior to venturing into retail/telecom, RIL's earnings growth was determined by either: a) capex (new refining/chemical capacities), or b) margin cycles," JP Morgan notes. "Reliance Retail + Telecom now account for ~54% of total FY25 consolidated EBITDA."The new energy vertical adds another dimension: "RIL's New Energy rollout shall not only add 50%-plus to PAT, but also re-rate valuations, including the O2C business given its net zero-carbon target by 2035," according to Nuvama.The much-anticipated Jio IPO, though "pushed beyond 2025," remains the ace up RIL's sleeve for unlocking massive shareholder value. JP Morgan values Reliance Retail at $121 billion, trading at ~32x FY27E EBITDA—significantly below DMART's 42x multiple."Any crystallization of this retail valuation upside – through an IPO process or through further stake sales – could lead to further upside in RIL's stock," JP Morgan analysts emphasize.CLSA's confidence is palpable: "We expect Reliance's consolidated Ebitda to improve significantly in the near future, led by increasing share of Jio and Retail." The brokerage sees RIL's "conservative valuation" as making it "an attractive bet for most large cap portfolios" in an "otherwise extended valuation of the Indian market."JP Morgan's investment thesis is equally compelling: "In a market where most stocks are trading well above historical valuations, Reliance's fair relative valuations are an attraction." The firm expects RIL to "deliver positive free cash flow" with an EBITDA run-rate of approximately $20 billion annually.Nomura reinforces the bullish narrative: "The stock currently trades at 12.1x and 23.3x FY27F EV/EBITDA and P/E, respectively. We reiterate our Buy rating for RIL."Investors will now laser-focus on the upcoming AGM within two months, looking for "further announcements on growth plans in FMCG, the ramp-up of new energy facilities, the expansion of the media business, acceleration of growth in Retail, the ramp-up of subscriber additions and monetisation for Jio along and the IPO of Jio."With RIL targeting to "double the size of its Jio and Retail businesses" alongside the new energy ramp-up "to the size of its O2C business," the company's ambitious goal of "doubling Reliance's size by the end of FY30" suddenly appears within striking distance, according to brokerages.For RIL's 48 lakh shareholders weathering the current volatility, the message from Street's finest is clear: the best may be yet to come.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)