Fed Leaves Rates Steady, Expects Weaker Growth, Sticky Inflation
"Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace," the press release said. "The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated."
The Fed's quarterly economic projections—which include the "dot plot" that indicates where the central bank expects the Fed funds rate over time — showed that policymakers see rates at 3.9% by year-end 2025, translating to 50 basis point cuts this year, the same as they expected in March. However, Fed members see rates decline to 3.6% next year and 3.4% in 2027, indicating fewer rate cuts than their previous projection.
Policymakers also cut their economic growth projections, with the GDP increase this year now seen at 1.4% versus 1.7% at the March forecast. They also projected higher inflation for this year, with Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and core PCE inflation landing at 3% and 3.1%, versus 2.7% and 2.8% in March. Fed members also see the unemployment rate rising to 4.5% this year and during 2026, up from 4.4% and 4.3% March projections.
Bitcoin (BTC), hovering around $104,000 earlier during the session, was little changed at $104,200 minutes following the Fed decision. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq indexes were up.
"The Fed's dot plot reveals a clear trend toward stagflationary pressures, a scenario where economic growth slows while inflation and unemployment remain uncomfortably high," said David Hernandez, crypto investment specialist at digital asset manager 21Shares.
That combination historically eroded the value of traditional investments and fiat currencies, but it could be beneficial for bitcoin due to its scarcity, borderless nature, and lack of dependence on U.S. economic output.
"New capital will inevitably search for assets that offer a store of value and potential for growth, a search that leads many directly to BTC," Hernandez said.UPDATE (June 18, 19:31 UTC): Adds analyst comment.
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