Hurricane season in the Atlantic tropics: A quiet June with July trending more intense
'June is normally a quiet month,' said Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist at Colorado State University. 'We've had above-average wind shear, and with cooler sea surface temperatures compared to this time last year.'
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Take a look at sea surface temperatures for the third week of June compared to last year. The main development region was running extremely hot last June compared to late August, which helped spawn Beryl so early. This year is much different.
The reason being? Strong trade winds from a stronger Bermuda high have helped with evaporative cooling of sea surface temperatures, keeping ocean temperatures closer to normal.
Sea surface temperatures are much cooler this year (left) versus the third week of June last year (right) when Hurricane Beryl formed.
Weather Models
Since there's virtually no possibility of another tropical storm forming before Monday, we set our eyes on July, where the season typically begins to awaken.
What does a normal July look like?
July is usually another quiet month across the Atlantic tropics, with about 7 percent of the season activity occurring during this month. Of course, the busiest months of the hurricane season occur between August and October, with the peak date around September 10.
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Over the past 30 years or so, July averages about 1.5 named storms, with .6 becoming hurricanes and .1 strengthening to a major hurricane — meaning we typically get a hurricane every other year, with 1 major hurricane every decade during July.
In addition to the Gulf and Western Atlantic, the Caribbean and the Western edge of the tropical Atlantic, just to the east of the Antilles, become possible formation spots for tropical storms and hurricanes during July as sea surface temperatures generally reach the typical 80-degree minimum to support development.
Tropical activity increases across the East Coast and Western Atlantic during July.
Boston Globe
What will this July look like?
Long-term models suggest that sea surface temperatures will creep up, with wind shear becoming less intense, but it may take a while. July typically only produces one named storm, and I wouldn't be surprised if we cap off the month with just one named storm for this time around.
There is another hurricane stat worth noting about July systems — there is a growing trend with Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). ACE is a metric that measures the intensity of hurricanes. This means that July storms are trending stronger and longer-lasting. Take a look at how storm intensity during July as increased since 1950.
Accumulated Cyclone Energy during the month of July since 1950.
Phil Klotzbach, CSU
And one last stat regarding July activity. 2020 tied the record for the number of named storms with five — Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, and Isaias. The only other year on record with five named storms was in 2005.
New England and July tropical activity
New England hardly sees a direct landfall from tropical storms or hurricanes as it is, let alone during July. However, there have been several remnant storms that have pushed into the region, along with weakened tropical depressions and post-tropical systems, all flooding parts of New England over the years.
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Last July, New England was impacted by the remnants of Hurricane Beryl, dumping flooding rains across parts of New Hampshire and Vermont.
Tropical Storm Fay in July of 2020 made landfall in New Jersey, but most of New England took on the brunt of the storm.
The last direct landfall from a tropical storm or hurricane in New England during July? Tropical Storm Beryl in July of 2006, storm names are recycled until their retired, made landfall on Nantucket.
All in all, it takes one storm to make a world of difference, regardless of the time of year. Take a look at the costliest and strongest hurricanes, in terms of pressure, on record.
A list of the seven costliest hurricanes on record.
Boston Globe
The six strongest hurricanes on record in terms of barometric pressure.
Boston Globe
Ken Mahan can be reached at
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Boston Globe
2 days ago
- Boston Globe
Hurricane season in the Atlantic tropics: A quiet June with July trending more intense
'June is normally a quiet month,' said Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist at Colorado State University. 'We've had above-average wind shear, and with cooler sea surface temperatures compared to this time last year.' Advertisement Take a look at sea surface temperatures for the third week of June compared to last year. The main development region was running extremely hot last June compared to late August, which helped spawn Beryl so early. This year is much different. The reason being? Strong trade winds from a stronger Bermuda high have helped with evaporative cooling of sea surface temperatures, keeping ocean temperatures closer to normal. Sea surface temperatures are much cooler this year (left) versus the third week of June last year (right) when Hurricane Beryl formed. Weather Models Since there's virtually no possibility of another tropical storm forming before Monday, we set our eyes on July, where the season typically begins to awaken. What does a normal July look like? July is usually another quiet month across the Atlantic tropics, with about 7 percent of the season activity occurring during this month. Of course, the busiest months of the hurricane season occur between August and October, with the peak date around September 10. Advertisement Over the past 30 years or so, July averages about 1.5 named storms, with .6 becoming hurricanes and .1 strengthening to a major hurricane — meaning we typically get a hurricane every other year, with 1 major hurricane every decade during July. In addition to the Gulf and Western Atlantic, the Caribbean and the Western edge of the tropical Atlantic, just to the east of the Antilles, become possible formation spots for tropical storms and hurricanes during July as sea surface temperatures generally reach the typical 80-degree minimum to support development. Tropical activity increases across the East Coast and Western Atlantic during July. Boston Globe What will this July look like? Long-term models suggest that sea surface temperatures will creep up, with wind shear becoming less intense, but it may take a while. July typically only produces one named storm, and I wouldn't be surprised if we cap off the month with just one named storm for this time around. There is another hurricane stat worth noting about July systems — there is a growing trend with Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). ACE is a metric that measures the intensity of hurricanes. This means that July storms are trending stronger and longer-lasting. Take a look at how storm intensity during July as increased since 1950. Accumulated Cyclone Energy during the month of July since 1950. Phil Klotzbach, CSU And one last stat regarding July activity. 2020 tied the record for the number of named storms with five — Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, and Isaias. The only other year on record with five named storms was in 2005. New England and July tropical activity New England hardly sees a direct landfall from tropical storms or hurricanes as it is, let alone during July. However, there have been several remnant storms that have pushed into the region, along with weakened tropical depressions and post-tropical systems, all flooding parts of New England over the years. Advertisement Last July, New England was impacted by the remnants of Hurricane Beryl, dumping flooding rains across parts of New Hampshire and Vermont. Tropical Storm Fay in July of 2020 made landfall in New Jersey, but most of New England took on the brunt of the storm. The last direct landfall from a tropical storm or hurricane in New England during July? Tropical Storm Beryl in July of 2006, storm names are recycled until their retired, made landfall on Nantucket. All in all, it takes one storm to make a world of difference, regardless of the time of year. Take a look at the costliest and strongest hurricanes, in terms of pressure, on record. A list of the seven costliest hurricanes on record. Boston Globe The six strongest hurricanes on record in terms of barometric pressure. Boston Globe Ken Mahan can be reached at
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Yahoo
National Hurricane Center eyes new Central American disturbance as tropical weather season progresses
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Boston Globe
4 days ago
- Boston Globe
Pattern shift alert! Boston has a major cool down on the way.
A quick look at Thursday Bostonians and New Englanders can share a collective sigh of relief as the pattern flips and cooler air funnels across the region under mostly cloudy skies. Dew points will also be much more comfortable, settling in the 50s, as Thursday's highs reach only the low 70s. Advertisement There will be a few scattered showers during the afternoon and evening, so it might be best to pack the umbrella for the commute home. Mostly cloudy skies will remain overnight with lows slipping to the upper 50s for some. The setup — turning cooler and cloudy, chance for showers After a hot transition day on Wednesday, the weak cold front will have pushed south of New England by sunrise Thursday morning. This brings one word to mind: refreshing. After days of major air conditioning demands, the weather will be cooler with increasing clouds and the chance for showers on Thursday. Basically, the stalled front to the south shifts the wind pattern to draw in cooler, drier air from the north, while inviting a couple of systems into the region for the next couple of days. Advertisement You'll notice some slivers of sunshine in the morning, but skies will turn mostly cloudy to near overcast as the day goes on. A few scattered, light showers are possible across Boston and parts west later in the day. Mostly cloudy skies will lead to a few scattered showers across the region on Thursday, especially in the second half of the day. Boston Globe Winds will be coming in from the east/northeast Thursday, reaching 10 miles per hour at times, which will end up keeping the immediate coast cooler than a mile or two inland. The morning commute will be in the mid- to upper 60s, paired with lower humidity. Dew points will be in the 50s to start the day and stay that way. Ultimately, highs will crawl to the low 70s, about 5 degrees below the average for Boston. Highs on Thursday will only reach the lower 70s. Boston Globe You can see the dry air funnel south across New England and park there for the rest of the work week. Dew points will drop into the more comfortable 50s for Thursday and Friday. Pivotal Weather End of week peek — 16th straight weekend of measurable rain in Boston A couple of pieces of energy will push into New England on Friday and Saturday. As of now, it looks like Friday afternoon and evening may deliver the most rain, but targeting closer to the Canadian border than Boston. Greater Boston may see scattered showers on both Friday and Saturday. Sunday morning may see a sprinkle, but the odds are pretty high that Boston will see measurable rain for the 16th straight weekend. The atmosphere takes a while to adjust after a massive extreme like the dome of high pressure that brought the heat wave, meaning we may see some shower activity for each of the next seven days. There is some chance of showers each day for the next week across Boston. Boston Globe Thursday's breakdown Greater Boston: Mostly cloudy to overcast with highs in the low 70s. A sea breeze of about 10 mph. Shower chance in the afternoon and evening. Staying mostly cloudy at night with a low near 60. Advertisement Southeastern Mass.: Seeing mostly cloudy skies with highs reaching the low 70s. A breeze to 10 mph. A couple of late evening showers are possible. Lows to the upper 50s under cloudy skies. Central/Western Mass.: Seeing mostly cloudy skies turning to overcast at times. Highs to the low and mid-70s. Berkshires stall in the upper 60s. Scattered showers are possible in the afternoon and evening, but they will be few and far between. Lows into the upper 50s. Cape and Islands: Mostly cloudy skies with a sea breeze to 10 or 15 mph. Highs reaching the upper 60s and low 70s. A spot shower later. Lows stay around 60 degrees under cloudy skies. Rhode Island: Mostly cloudy skies with the chance for a shower later in the day. Highs to the low and mid-70s. Staying mostly cloudy at night with lows near 60. New Hampshire: A bit more sunshine than Southern New England, allowing for temperatures to reach the mid-70s. A spot shower is possible in the afternoon, especially south of Plymouth. Lows to the upper 50s with mostly cloudy skies. Vermont/Maine: A partly sunny start with a mostly cloudy finish. A couple of spot showers are possible in Central and Southern Vermont. Highs to the low and mid-70s across both states. Turning mostly cloudy to overcast at night with lows in the upper 50s. The weather across Boston for the next seven days. Boston Globe for our , which will arrive straight into your inbox bright and early each weekday morning. Ken Mahan can be reached at
