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Dalai Lama's succession decision challenges China, raises stakes for India

Dalai Lama's succession decision challenges China, raises stakes for India

India Todaya day ago
In a pivotal move ahead of his 90th birthday, His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama has officially announced that the Gaden Phodrang Trust, his personal trust, will solely oversee the recognition and selection of his reincarnation. This announcement, while reaffirming the traditional Tibetan Buddhist process of identifying the next Dalai Lama, directly challenges China's long-standing claim that the succession must be approved by the Chinese government. The decision carries profound geopolitical implications, especially for India, where the Dalai Lama has lived in exile since 1959, and which hosts the Tibetan government-in-exile in Dharamshala. In an exclusive interview with India Today Global's Geeta Mohan, Dr. Jabin Jacob, an expert on China at Shiv Nadar University, offered a detailed perspective on the evolving dynamics. Dr. Jacob highlighted that this announcement is in line with what the Dalai Lama had long promised—making a clear decision about his succession upon turning 90. While the move signals a return to tradition, it also represents a strategic pivot. 'He has moved away from earlier suggestions such as naming his successor in his lifetime or being reincarnated outside of Tibet. Instead, he has opted for the conventional path, involving consultations with high lamas, the Tibetan Parliament in exile, and even indirect requests from inside Tibet,' Jacob said. However, Dr. Jacob cautioned that this traditional approach does not necessarily reduce Beijing's influence. 'China continues to assert its authority over Tibetan religious matters, including succession. By reverting to a traditional selection process, the door is not shut on Chinese interference. China could still attempt to control or recognise a parallel Dalai Lama,' he warned. The issue also brings into sharp focus India's delicate balancing act. For decades, India has hosted the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan diaspora, offering sanctuary while attempting to avoid antagonising China. Asked whether India has strategically used the Dalai Lama issue in its foreign policy toolkit, Dr. Jacob rejected the simplistic notion of a 'Tibet card.' 'Our decisions have largely been guided by national interest and a degree of morality. India's actions—hosting the Dalai Lama and supporting the Tibetan community—have not been transactional. To exploit the Tibetan cause would make us no different from the Chinese,' he said. However, he added that the Dalai Lama's succession will inevitably have direct implications for India, and Delhi must be prepared to assert its stake in the process. Geeta Mohan also recalled the inconsistency in India's stance over the years—how during periods of engagement with China, New Delhi had issued advisories discouraging official participation in the Dalai Lama's birthday celebrations. In contrast, during times of tension, such as after the Galwan clash, senior Indian officials have prominently attended Tibetan events. Dr. Jacob criticised this unpredictability. 'If the Indian government believes ambiguity brings strategic advantage, it must articulate what those advantages are. Otherwise, this inconsistency only makes us vulnerable to pressure, diminishes credibility, and creates confusion both domestically and internationally,' he asserted. He added that a clear, principled stand would also signal to the Tibetan community that their interests remain a priority for India. Addressing the controversial 2003 decision by then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to recognise the Tibet Autonomous Region as part of China, Dr. Jacob clarified that this was not a blanket historical endorsement. 'India acknowledged the TAR as a political reality, not as a historical validation of China's claims. In return, China recognised Sikkim as Indian territory. That was the quid pro quo,' he explained. While some question why Kashmir was not included in the bargain, Dr. Jacob pointed out that China has consistently maintained a technically neutral position on the issue. Though it supports Pakistan practically, its official stance—based on a 1963 agreement with Pakistan—leaves room for future negotiation depending on the resolution of the Kashmir dispute. Ultimately, the Dalai Lama's succession will not just be a religious matter—it's a geopolitical flashpoint. With China, India, and the Tibetan people all having a stake in the outcome, the coming years will test New Delhi's diplomatic clarity, resolve, and moral compass.- EndsTune In
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