Tourist killings test the limits of India's water diplomacy
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) between India and Pakistan has long been hailed as a rare success in transboundary water sharing. It has stood as a beacon of cooperation between two hostile neighbors.
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The Diplomat
09-07-2025
- The Diplomat
Chronic Water Shortages Plague Pakistan's Capital
India and Pakistan continue to make headlines as they trade harsh words and threats about the fate of the Indus Waters Treaty. However, the origins of many of Pakistan's water problems are much closer home. Degraded infrastructure and mismanagement cause the country's capital, Islamabad, and the adjacent city of Rawalpindi, whose surface water comes from watersheds entirely within Pakistan, to face persistent and worsening water shortages. Monsoon rains have arrived in the capital, but they will not solve the pervasive problems in Islamabad and Rawalpindi's water system. Pakistan's leadership will need to take steps far beyond its current plan to keep the capital and its surrounding agricultural and industrial areas supplied with water. Islamabad and Rawalpindi are a telling exemplar of the issues facing Pakistan as it attempts to mitigate climate change's impact on the country's water supply. Even before India's recent withdrawal from the Indus Waters Treaty, water was easy to politicize in Pakistan. After all, Pakistan is dependent on the Indus River, which originates in India, for 80 percent of its agriculture. Agriculture provides 25 percent of Pakistan's GDP and employs 65 percent of its labor force. Pakistan's National Security Committee has warned India that any disruption of Indus water flows would be considered 'an act of war,' sustaining a similar diplomatic position for almost a decade. Blaming India has made it easy for Pakistan to avoid the difficult work of providing water security to its population. Pakistan faces a 32 percent shortfall in water supply and nearly 80 percent of the country is forced to drink contaminated water. The twin cities of Rawalpindi and Islamabad feel Pakistan's policy shortfalls acutely. About 40 percent of the Pakistani population depends on surface water, including from rivers, while about 60 percent rely on underground water reserves. Both systems are failing. The lack of oversight on water metering in both cities has limited investment and allowed illegal taps to flourish. There are few regulations to limit the installation and use of wells, leading to massive overuse. Groundwater depth has fallen from 22.8 to 56 meters in Islamabad and from 37.8 to 59 meters in Rawalpindi. The lack of regulation has also left both the surface and ground water polluted with toxic substances and bacteria as chemicals, trash, and sewage are openly dumped across the watershed. The pervasive presence of contaminants and pollutants contributes to waterborne illnesses and rising cancer rates in the twin cities. In addition to limited oversight, the twin cities' infrastructure is simply not up to the task. Much of the water in the region is supplied by three reservoirs created by the Khanpur, Rawal, and Simly dams. Even when full, which is a rare occurrence, the three lack the capacity to supply both cities with sufficient water. The dams are augmented by 480 tube wells to supply the network with groundwater. Rawalpindi has a water deficiency of 18.5 million gallons per day in the summer, while Islamabad has a deficiency of 52 million gallons per day. These dams are supported by 53 water plants, of which only 13 are supplying clean water that is safe to drink. Local authorities laid the water pipe network between 30 to 100 years ago and the system has deteriorated in most places. Poor rainwater drainage and sewage runoff have further damaged the network. National and local authorities have attempted to address surface water storage issues. However, limited funds and poor project oversight have dimmed hopes of meaningful relief in the near term. In 2020, Pakistan approved a plan to construct a 60-kilometer pipeline from the Tarbela Dam to Islamabad in an attempt to provide additional fresh water to the capital. However, the plan lacked sufficient funds to progress and was canceled early this year. The Asian Development Bank is funding a more viable plan to supply an additional 25 million gallons per day to Rawalpindi through the construction of the Chahan Dam. While some portions of the project are underway, two major segments of the dam are mired in a long-term legal dispute. The Dadocha Dam, another key upgrade, also faced legal issues but appears to be progressing and may provide some relief to Rawalpindi in the coming year. None of these plans involve improving the connections between the reservoirs and the population. The poor state of the network will continue to undercut the quality of the water in the twin cities. Regardless of the status of the new construction, climate change will continue to pose a massive threat to residents of Islamabad and Rawalpindi. All of Pakistan's dams have seen drastically lower levels as last winter was one of the driest in Pakistan's history, with parts of the country seeing 67 percent less rainfall than usual. In May, authorities suspended water supplies from the Khanpur Dam to surrounding farms in an attempt to save capacity. Despite this, water levels in the dam are falling as much as 0.03 meters daily at the dam as it approaches the dead storage line, when water cannot be pulled from the dam to supply the network. Even the Tarbela and Mangla dams, which boast the largest reservoirs in the country, reached their dead storage levels and were unable to provide hydropower and irrigation. Given recent rain patterns, plans to connect Islamabad to the large dam at Tarbela would not provide meaningful relief. The Chahan and Dadocha dams will also likely succumb to the climate change-driven drought that is currently plaguing Pakistan. In addition to climate change, the continuing urbanization of Pakistan will only put more pressure on Rawalpindi and Islamabad's teetering water network. The Asian Development Bank estimates that 40 percent of the country will live in urban areas by 2030. As the twin cities continue to accept an influx of citizens from Pakistan's rural areas, the water system will not be able to cope. Those who can afford it will resort to water tanker services or bottled water. However, due to Pakistan's poor regulatory scheme many providers have charged exorbitant prices or provided unsafe bottled water. The water crisis in Islamabad and Rawalpindi seems destined to exacerbate challenges to civil order. Rawalpindi saw limited protests about water shortages on July 2 as well as in late May and early June. Things may not always be so calm in the capital as water shortages have caused unrest in other parts of the country. A May protest over canals on the Indus River turned violent in Sindh Province, resulting in injuries to two policemen and the destruction of a district official's house. Without progress in controlling groundwater use, improving the quality of the water provided to the population, and expanding surface water storage capacity, additional protests and political turmoil are likely in the capital. Climate change and urbanization will only worsen the problem. Water issues will challenge authorities in Pakistan's capital for years to come.
Nikkei Asia
05-07-2025
- Nikkei Asia
The Dalai Lama's succession struggle could shake Asia and the world
Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama delivers an address via video message to the inaugural session at the 15th Tibetan Religious Conference at the Dalai Lama Library and Archive in the northern hill town of Dharamshala, India, on July 2. © Reuters Brahma Chellaney, a professor of strategic studies at the independent New Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research and fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin, is the author of nine books, including "Water: Asia's New Battleground," which won the Bernard Schwartz Book Award. With the Dalai Lama turning 90 on July 6, anxiety over his succession has reached a critical point. For Tibetans, the stakes are existential. But for China, the potential vacancy offers a strategic opening to tighten its grip on Tibetan Buddhism.
Nikkei Asia
03-07-2025
- Nikkei Asia
Pakistan urges India to abide by water treaty after Hague court ruling
The Indus River as it runs through Hyderabad, Pakistan, on April 25. Although the Permanent Court of Arbitration has issued a ruling in Pakistan's favor, the country's water treaty impasse with India is likely to continue as the court lacks enforcement powers. © Reuters ADNAN AAMIR ISLAMABAD -- With a ruling handed down last week by the Permanent Court of Arbitration that favors its position, Pakistan is now calling on India to resume the implementation of a bilateral water-sharing treaty. Experts say that while the ruling strengthens Islamabad's legal position, New Delhi is unlikely to go back to abiding by the treaty. The 65-year-old Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) grants Pakistan rights to water from the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab rivers, while granting India control of the Ravi, Sutlej and Beas rivers. Following a deadly attack on tourists in India-administered Kashmir in April, New Delhi blamed Pakistan and unilaterally declared the treaty to be in abeyance.
