Rebuilding the Middle East: enormous challenges, staggering costs, no peace in sight
The wars, particularly the ongoing devastation in Gaza, have caused unprecedented levels of destruction and humanitarian suffering. This also includes Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen, which together constitute more than one-third of the Arab countries.
Reconstruction could take decades and recovery even more, with post-war efforts needed that are described as the largest since the end of World War II in 1945.
A major concern is emerging about who will finance post-war restoration and how. Can such massive funding be possible without achieving a sustainable peace settlement? And is funding the only challenge?
The fear is that limited resources, reduced aid and inability to end the conflicts would only increase instability and prolong sufferings in the Arab region.
Initial estimates reveal a staggering cost for rebuilding the Middle East that could range from $350 billion to $650 billion, including some $53 billion for Gaza, $11 billion for Lebanon and $400 billion for Syria.
Such figures are "average estimations," according to Abdallah Al Dardari, regional director for Arab States of the United Nations Development Program.
"No comprehensive on-the-ground assessments of the impacts of the conflicts have been conducted to date," Al Dardari told UPI in an interview from New York.
He said that the estimations rely mostly on analyses of satellite imagery to provide approximations of the scope and scale of destruction and "mathematical modelling" to assess other impacts.
They are also based on different assumptions for recovery, including assessments of physical and infrastructure damage, the time needed for reconstruction and extent of socio-economic recovery.
The U.N. official noted that the cost of recovery will be "much larger," as it also requires reviving war-devastated economies, restoring efficient government functions and institutions, rebuilding social cohesion and trust, and strengthening the resilience of local communities to withstand future crises.
The estimate for Gaza, for example, may refer primarily to costs related to address immediate rebuilding needs, he said.
Earlier this month, Arab leaders adopted Egypt's $53 billion-plan for Gaza reconstruction in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's vision of taking over the war-ravaged Strip, rebuilding it by relocating permanently its inhabitants and turning it into a "Middle East Riviera."
The idea includes a six-month recovery phase during which temporary housing would be provided for 1.5 million displaced Gazans inside the Strip, to be followed by two stages of reconstruction. The process is expected to run until 2030.
According to a recent U.N. damage assessment, it could take 21 years and $1.2 billion to clear Gaza's 50 million tons of rubble caused by Israel's relentless and intensive airstrikes. In addition, the Palestinian Ministry of Health estimates that some 10,000 bodies remain buried beneath the debris.
Securing the much-needed funds emerged as a major challenge after the United States and many Western countries decided to cut foreign aid. They simply have higher priorities.
"In many of the traditional donor countries, we are witnessing a tide of political change that seems to be favoring national interest over international solidarity," al Dardari said. "We do live in a world of poly-crises that are requiring greater investments from leading economies, such as climate change, alongside major conflicts like the war in Ukraine."
A study released in February by the government of Ukraine, the World Bank, the European Commission and the United Nations estimated the cost of Ukraine's reconstruction and recovery after three years of Russia's invasion at $524 billion over the next decade.
Would that impact reconstruction efforts in the Arab region? Expectedly, oil-rich Gulf countries would bear the burden of funding reconstruction in the region.
Al Dardari emphasized that Gulf countries have "important roles" to play in supporting and financing reconstruction of war-ravaged Arab countries.
"This goes beyond solidarity. ... It is an investment in stabilizing a region that is key for global peace and security and that plays important economic functions," he said, referring to UNDP's efforts to help countries build partnerships and collaborate with international bodies for "effective and inclusive rebuilding efforts."
He said the focus should be on diversifying funding sources, beyond traditional donors, developing innovative development financing arrangements with international financial institutions and emphasizing the role of regional cooperation to "sustain a momentum for recovery and reconstruction."
The UN official, however, warned that reduced financial support will slow the delivery of humanitarian aid, rebuilding of essential infrastructures and economic recovery, which "may prolong instability in conflict-affected Arab states."
Moreover, what could further delay reconstruction is the increasing linkage of funding to political conditions and anti-corruption reforms.
International and Arab donors have made it clear that disarming Hezbollah and implementing necessary reforms are prerequisites for releasing financial aid to help rebuild corruption-plagued Lebanon.
Syria's conditions for sanctions relief and reconstruction include, among others, formation of an inclusive government, maintaining order, dismantling any remaining chemical weapons, combating terrorism and curbing Islamist jihadists.
Gaza's situation proves to be more complicated: Hamas must relinquish its control of the Strip, stop attacking Israel and disarm, amid concerns over Israel and Trump's plan to force displacement of its population.
Al Dardari emphasized that achieving political settlements "that pave the way for peace and address the most urgent life-saving humanitarian needs of populations affected by war are key priorities."
Reforms, he said, are critical to restoring core government functions, revitalizing institutions, maintaining the rule of law and promoting national reconciliation.
He cautioned that funding conditionalities may incentivize governance reforms, but could "reinforce political deadlocks rather than resolve them."
At the end, what is needed is to address the root causes of the conflicts and prevent future violence.
However, the region remains far from achieving peace and stability, as regional and international powers continue to compete for influence and control.
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