Rebuilding the Middle East: enormous challenges, staggering costs, no peace in sight
The wars, particularly the ongoing devastation in Gaza, have caused unprecedented levels of destruction and humanitarian suffering. This also includes Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen, which together constitute more than one-third of the Arab countries.
Reconstruction could take decades and recovery even more, with post-war efforts needed that are described as the largest since the end of World War II in 1945.
A major concern is emerging about who will finance post-war restoration and how. Can such massive funding be possible without achieving a sustainable peace settlement? And is funding the only challenge?
The fear is that limited resources, reduced aid and inability to end the conflicts would only increase instability and prolong sufferings in the Arab region.
Initial estimates reveal a staggering cost for rebuilding the Middle East that could range from $350 billion to $650 billion, including some $53 billion for Gaza, $11 billion for Lebanon and $400 billion for Syria.
Such figures are "average estimations," according to Abdallah Al Dardari, regional director for Arab States of the United Nations Development Program.
"No comprehensive on-the-ground assessments of the impacts of the conflicts have been conducted to date," Al Dardari told UPI in an interview from New York.
He said that the estimations rely mostly on analyses of satellite imagery to provide approximations of the scope and scale of destruction and "mathematical modelling" to assess other impacts.
They are also based on different assumptions for recovery, including assessments of physical and infrastructure damage, the time needed for reconstruction and extent of socio-economic recovery.
The U.N. official noted that the cost of recovery will be "much larger," as it also requires reviving war-devastated economies, restoring efficient government functions and institutions, rebuilding social cohesion and trust, and strengthening the resilience of local communities to withstand future crises.
The estimate for Gaza, for example, may refer primarily to costs related to address immediate rebuilding needs, he said.
Earlier this month, Arab leaders adopted Egypt's $53 billion-plan for Gaza reconstruction in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's vision of taking over the war-ravaged Strip, rebuilding it by relocating permanently its inhabitants and turning it into a "Middle East Riviera."
The idea includes a six-month recovery phase during which temporary housing would be provided for 1.5 million displaced Gazans inside the Strip, to be followed by two stages of reconstruction. The process is expected to run until 2030.
According to a recent U.N. damage assessment, it could take 21 years and $1.2 billion to clear Gaza's 50 million tons of rubble caused by Israel's relentless and intensive airstrikes. In addition, the Palestinian Ministry of Health estimates that some 10,000 bodies remain buried beneath the debris.
Securing the much-needed funds emerged as a major challenge after the United States and many Western countries decided to cut foreign aid. They simply have higher priorities.
"In many of the traditional donor countries, we are witnessing a tide of political change that seems to be favoring national interest over international solidarity," al Dardari said. "We do live in a world of poly-crises that are requiring greater investments from leading economies, such as climate change, alongside major conflicts like the war in Ukraine."
A study released in February by the government of Ukraine, the World Bank, the European Commission and the United Nations estimated the cost of Ukraine's reconstruction and recovery after three years of Russia's invasion at $524 billion over the next decade.
Would that impact reconstruction efforts in the Arab region? Expectedly, oil-rich Gulf countries would bear the burden of funding reconstruction in the region.
Al Dardari emphasized that Gulf countries have "important roles" to play in supporting and financing reconstruction of war-ravaged Arab countries.
"This goes beyond solidarity. ... It is an investment in stabilizing a region that is key for global peace and security and that plays important economic functions," he said, referring to UNDP's efforts to help countries build partnerships and collaborate with international bodies for "effective and inclusive rebuilding efforts."
He said the focus should be on diversifying funding sources, beyond traditional donors, developing innovative development financing arrangements with international financial institutions and emphasizing the role of regional cooperation to "sustain a momentum for recovery and reconstruction."
The UN official, however, warned that reduced financial support will slow the delivery of humanitarian aid, rebuilding of essential infrastructures and economic recovery, which "may prolong instability in conflict-affected Arab states."
Moreover, what could further delay reconstruction is the increasing linkage of funding to political conditions and anti-corruption reforms.
International and Arab donors have made it clear that disarming Hezbollah and implementing necessary reforms are prerequisites for releasing financial aid to help rebuild corruption-plagued Lebanon.
Syria's conditions for sanctions relief and reconstruction include, among others, formation of an inclusive government, maintaining order, dismantling any remaining chemical weapons, combating terrorism and curbing Islamist jihadists.
Gaza's situation proves to be more complicated: Hamas must relinquish its control of the Strip, stop attacking Israel and disarm, amid concerns over Israel and Trump's plan to force displacement of its population.
Al Dardari emphasized that achieving political settlements "that pave the way for peace and address the most urgent life-saving humanitarian needs of populations affected by war are key priorities."
Reforms, he said, are critical to restoring core government functions, revitalizing institutions, maintaining the rule of law and promoting national reconciliation.
He cautioned that funding conditionalities may incentivize governance reforms, but could "reinforce political deadlocks rather than resolve them."
At the end, what is needed is to address the root causes of the conflicts and prevent future violence.
However, the region remains far from achieving peace and stability, as regional and international powers continue to compete for influence and control.
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Chicago Tribune
5 hours ago
- Chicago Tribune
Israel says hundreds of truckloads of aid are waiting to enter Gaza. Why can't the UN bring them in?
TEL AVIV, Israel — The United Nations and experts say that Palestinians in Gaza are at risk of famine, with reports of increasing numbers of people dying from causes related to malnutrition. Yet Israel says hundreds of truckloads of aid are waiting at the border for the U.N. to distribute in Gaza. On Thursday, Israel's military took journalists to the Gaza side of the Kerem Shalom crossing where hundreds of boxes of aid were on pallets filling a huge lot. Israel says it has allowed in around 4,500 aid trucks since it lifted a total blockade in May —around 70 truckloads a day, one of the lowest rates of the war and far less than the several hundred the U.N. says are needed each day. Israel says it lets in enough aid and faults U.N. agencies for not doing enough to retrieve and get it to those in need. The U.N. says it is hampered by Israeli military restrictions on its movements and incidents of criminal looting. Here's a look at why the aid can't be delivered. To retrieve the aid at the border — or move around most of the Gaza Strip — U.N. trucks must enter zones controlled by the military after obtaining its permission. Once the aid is loaded, the trucks must get safely to the population. The whole trip can take 20 hours, the U.N. says. Large crowds of desperate people, as well as criminal gangs, overwhelm trucks as they enter and strip off the supplies. Witnesses say Israeli troops regularly open fire on the crowds, causing deaths and injuries. 'Taken together, these factors have put people and humanitarian staff at grave risk and forced aid agencies on many occasions to pause the collection of cargo from crossings controlled by the Israeli authorities,' said Olga Cherevko, a spokesperson for the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, or OCHA. At least 79 Palestinians were killed while trying to get aid entering Gaza this week, according to Gaza's health ministry. A U.N. official who was not authorized to discuss the issue publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity, said Israeli forces opened fire toward crowds who tried to take food from an entering truck convoy. Israel's military said soldiers shot at a gathering of thousands of Palestinians in northern Gaza who posed a threat, and it was aware of some casualties. On its website, OCHA said there is a breakdown of law and order, which is partly due to the collapse of Gaza's Hamas-run civilian police force, leading to insecurity at the crossings and for convoys moving within Gaza. It said this is further compounded by the increase of armed gangs. The military frequently assigns routes for trucks to use that are 'unsuitable, either impassable for long truck convoys, passing through crowded markets, or controlled by dangerous gangs,' OCHA said. When the U.N. objects to a route, the military provides few alternatives, it said. The U.N. also struggles with facilitation from the military. It says more than half its movement requests, 506 out of 894, were either denied or impeded by the military in May, June and July. There are also regular delays by Israel's forces in coordination. The delays result in lost time, difficulty planning and wasted resources as convoys spend hours waiting for the 'green light to move only to be denied,' OCHA said. Israel says it doesn't limit the truckloads of aid coming into Gaza and that assessments of roads in Gaza are conducted weekly where it looks for the best ways to provide access for the international community. Col. Abdullah Halaby, a top official in COGAT, the Israeli military agency in charge of transferring aid to the territory, said there are several crossings open. 'We encourage our friends and our colleagues from the international community to do the collection, and to distribute the humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza,' he said. An Israeli security official who was not allowed to be named in line with military procedures told reporters this week that the U.N. wanted to use roads that were not approved. He said the army offered to escort the aid groups but they refused. For much of the war, U.N. agencies were able to safely deliver aid to those who need it, despite Israeli restrictions and occasional attacks and looting. The Hamas-run police provided public security. But as Israeli airstrikes targeted the police force, it has been unable to operate. The U.N. says being escorted by Israel's army could bring harm to civilians, citing shootings and killings by Israeli troops surrounding aid operations. The U.N. and aid groups also say that looting of trucks lessens or stops entirely when enough aid is allowed into Gaza. 'The best protection for us is community buy-in,' said U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujarric. 'And to get that community buy-in, communities have to understand that trucks will come every day, that food will come every day.' 'That's what we're asking for,' he said.


NBC News
5 hours ago
- NBC News
Tens of thousands flee their homes as Thailand and Cambodia clash
SURIN, Thailand — Tens of thousands of people sought refuge as border fighting between Thailand and Cambodia entered its third day Saturday, heightening fears of an extended conflict with the total death toll reaching 32. The U.N. Security Council held an emergency meeting behind closed doors late Friday in New York, while Malaysia, which chairs the 10-nation regional bloc that includes both countries, called for an end to hostilities and offered to mediate. The council did not issue a statement but a council diplomat said all 15 members called on the parties to deescalate, show restraint and resolve the dispute peacefully. The council also urged the regional bloc, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations known as ASEAN, to help resolve the border fighting, the diplomat said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the meeting was private. Cambodia's U.N. Ambassador Chhea Keo told reporters afterward that his country, which called for the emergency meeting, 'asked for immediate ceasefires, unconditionally, and we also call for the peaceful solution to the dispute.' He responded to accusations that Cambodia attacked Thailand asking how a small country with no air force could attack a much larger country with an army three times its size, stressing, 'We do not do that.' Calls for restraint Keo said the Security Council called for both sides to exercise 'maximum restraint and resort to diplomatic solution' which is what Cambodia is calling for as well. Asked what he expects next, the ambassador said: 'Let's see how the call can be heard by all the members there.' Thailand's U.N. ambassador left the meeting without stopping to talk to reporters. The Thai Health Ministry on Friday said more than 58,000 have fled from villages to temporary shelters in four affected border provinces, while Cambodian authorities said more than 23,000 people have evacuated from areas near the border. The latest flare-up in a long-running border dispute between the two countries has killed at least 19 people in Thailand — mostly civilians —while Cambodia said Saturday that 12 people more people have killed on its side, bringing its death toll to 13. Thailand's acting prime minister, Phumtham Wechayachai, said Friday that Cambodia may be guilty of war crimes due to the deaths of civilians and damage caused to a hospital. He said Thailand had exercised the 'utmost restraint and patience in the face of provocations and aggression' from Cambodia. Tensions over a disputed border area erupted into fighting after a land mine explosion along the border wounded five Thai soldiers on Wednesday. Clashes break out The Thai military reported clashes early Friday in multiple areas along the border, including near the ancient Ta Muen Thom temple claimed by both sides. Associated Press reporters near the border could hear sounds of artillery from early morning hours. The Thai army said Cambodian forces had used heavy artillery and Russian-made BM-21 rocket launchers, prompting what Thai officials described as 'appropriate supporting fire' in return. Thailand said six of its soldiers and 13 civilians were killed while 29 soldiers and 30 civilians were wounded. Early Saturday, Cambodian Gen. Maly Socheata, spokesperson for the Ministry of National Defense, told reporters Saturday that seven more civilians and five soldiers have died from two days of fighting. It earlier reported one fatality — a man who was killed when the pagoda he was hiding in got hit by Thai rockets. The Cambodian Education Ministry claimed that on Friday two Thai rockets had hit a school compound in Oddar Meanchey but caused no injuries. It said all schools in the province have been closed. The Thai army denied it targeted civilian sites in Cambodia, and accused Cambodia of using 'human shields' by positioning their weapons near residential areas. Thousands flee villages As the fighting intensified, villagers on both sides have been caught in the crossfire, leading many to flee. Around 600 people took shelter at a gymnasium in a university in Surin, Thailand, about 50 miles from the border. Evacuees sat in groups, on mats and blankets, and queued for food and drinks. Seamstress Pornpan Sooksai was accompanied by four cats in two fabric carriers. She said she was doing laundry at her home near Ta Muen Thom temple when shelling began Thursday. 'I just heard, boom, boom. We already prepared the cages, clothes and everything, so we ran and carried our things to the car. I was frightened, scared,' she recalled. Rattana Meeying, another evacuee, said she had also lived through the 2011 clashes between the two countries but described this flare-up as worse. 'Children, old people, were hit out of the blue,' she said. 'I never imagined it would be this violent.' At the nearby Phanom Dong Rak hospital, periodic explosions could be heard Friday, and a military truck arrived with three injured Thai soldiers, including one who had both legs severed. Thursday's shelling shattered windows at one of the hospital's buildings and damaged its roof. In the neighboring Sisaket province, more villagers took their belongings and left homes in a stream of cars, trucks and motorbikes after they received an evacuation order on Friday. Across the border in Cambodia, villages on the outskirts of Oddar Meanchey province were largely deserted. Homes stood locked, while chickens and dogs roamed outside. Some villagers earlier dug holes to create makeshift underground bunkers, covering them with wood, tarpaulin and zinc sheets to shield themselves from shelling. Families with children were seen packing their belongings on home-made tractors to evacuate, though a few men refused to leave. A remote Buddhist temple surrounded by rice fields accommodated several hundred evacuated villagers. Women rested in hammocks, some cradling babies, while children ran about. Makeshift plastic tents were being set up under the trees. Veng Chin, 74, pleaded with both governments to negotiate a settlement 'so that I can return to my home and work on the farm.'


Politico
5 hours ago
- Politico
Tens of thousands flee their homes as Thailand and Cambodia clash
Cambodia's U.N. Ambassador Chhea Keo told reporters afterward that his country, which called for the emergency meeting, 'asked for immediate ceasefires, unconditionally, and we also call for the peaceful solution to the dispute.' He responded to accusations that Cambodia attacked Thailand asking how a small country with no air force could attack a much larger country with an army three times its size, stressing, 'We do not do that.' Keo said the Security Council called for both sides to exercise 'maximum restraint and resort to diplomatic solution' which is what Cambodia is calling for as well. Asked what he expects next, the ambassador said: 'Let's see how the call can be heard by all the members there.' Thailand's U.N. ambassador left the meeting without stopping to talk to reporters. The Thai Health Ministry on Friday said more than 58,000 have fled from villages to temporary shelters in four affected border provinces, while Cambodian authorities said more than 23,000 people have evacuated from areas near the border. The latest flare-up in a long-running border dispute between the two countries has killed at least 19 people in Thailand — mostly civilians —while Cambodia confirmed its first fatality Friday. Early Saturday, Cambodian officials reported 12 new deaths in addition to the one death it reported earlier, bringing death toll on both sides to 32.