logo
Holes in EU Russia sanctions put attention back on Trump oil threat

Holes in EU Russia sanctions put attention back on Trump oil threat

Reuters6 days ago
LONDON, July 22 - The European Union's latest effort to restrict Russia's oil revenue is unlikely to hurt Moscow's war effort severely, leaving U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of secondary sanctions one of the few remaining economic levers to pressure the Kremlin.
The EU on Friday agreed on the 18th package of sanctions against Russia, which foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said was one of the strongest to date.
The package lowers the price cap on Russian crude to $47.60 a barrel from $60, meaning shippers and insurance companies seeking to avoid sanctions can't handle purchases made above this level. The new cap, which takes effect on September 3, also includes a mechanism to ensure it is always 15% below average Russian crude prices.
A significant new addition is an import ban on refined oil products made from Russian crude. The ban, which would likely kick in next year, seeks to close a loophole created after the EU halted most imports of Russian crude and refined products in the wake of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This action led to sharp rises in European imports of fuels, particularly diesel and aviation fuel, from China, India and Turkey.
The effectiveness of these initial measures was limited, however, as refiners in those three countries sharply increased imports of Russian feedstock due to the discounts created by the price cap.
Ultimately, the biggest loser from the new ban would likely be India, which accounted for 16% of Europe's imports of diesel and jet fuel last year, according to Kpler data. Russian crude also accounted for 38% of India's crude imports in 2024.
The new ban would exempt countries that are net exporters of crude, meaning the biggest beneficiaries of the new restriction will likely be Gulf producers with large refining operations such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait that could pick up the slack from Indian refineries and export more fuel to Europe.
The Western sanctions on Russia's oil sector since 2022 have been carefully crafted to avoid creating a severe energy price shock while still aiming to constrain the revenue of Moscow, the world's third-largest oil exporter. They haven't been overly successful on the latter point.
Russia's crude oil and oil products export revenues reached $192 billion in 2024, significantly more than its defence budget of $110 billion that year. That compared with oil export revenue of $225 billion in 2019.
While Russia's oil exports declined slightly in June to 7.23 million barrels per day, revenue rose by $800 million from May to $13.6 billion thanks to higher global oil prices, according to International Energy Agency estimates.
This partly reflects the fact that Russia has found some workarounds, including developing a vast and opaque network of tankers, insurance and payment schemes that allow it to export its oil above the price cap.
The EU's latest package has also placed 105 additional tankers under sanctions for evading the original price cap, in addition to the 342 already sanctioned.
But Moscow will likely find ways to evade the worst effects of the new sanctions, perhaps by expanding the shadow fleet or further obscuring the origin of its oil through measures such as mid-ocean ship-to-ship transfers.
Moreover, India and China will likely continue buying discounted Russian crude to benefit their domestic markets, while re-routing fuel exports previously bound to the EU to new markets.
So even though, on paper, the new price cap could collectively reduce Russia's oil revenue, in reality, the new EU measures are unlikely to choke off Moscow's financial lifeblood.
One way to hit Moscow's finances would be for President Trump to implement the "secondary sanctions" he threatened last week, whereby countries that buy oil from Moscow will be hit with 100% tariffs unless the Kremlin reaches a deal to end the war in Ukraine within 50 days.
These secondary tariffs mean any country buying Russian oil would face severe restrictions on its ability to trade with the world's largest economy.
Would Trump actually take this drastic step?
Trump has expressed significant frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent weeks. And given that the multiple rounds of EU and U.S. sanctions on Russia have had a limited impact on Moscow's war chest, secondary sanctions could be one of the few effective tools left.
But in a global energy market, this effectiveness is precisely the problem.
If this drastic escalation of the West's economic war on Moscow were to severely curtail Russia's oil exports, this would also likely lead to a sharp increase in global oil prices and higher inflation – two things the U.S. president certainly does not want.
And that's likely why – despite all these developments – Moscow and oil traders both appear relatively unfazed for now.
Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), opens new tab, your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI, opens new tab can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, opens new tab and X., opens new tab
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

German government to approve 2026 budget with record investment and borrowing surge, sources say
German government to approve 2026 budget with record investment and borrowing surge, sources say

Reuters

time4 minutes ago

  • Reuters

German government to approve 2026 budget with record investment and borrowing surge, sources say

BERLIN, July 28 (Reuters) - The German government will on Wednesday back a 2026 draft budget which includes record investment of 126.7 billion euros and borrowing of 174.3 billion euros as part of its fiscal bazooka for infrastructure and defence, finance ministry sources said. Germany is throwing off decades of fiscal conservatism in the hope of reviving economic growth, modernising its crumbling infrastructure and scaling up military spending, as Europe's biggest economy has gone from economic powerhouse to the euro zone's laggard. It is the only G7 economy that failed to grow for the last two years and the government forecast in the spring that it would stagnate again this year. The sources said that with the budget plans, the economic environment should improve noticeably over 2025 and 2026 compared with those forecasts. The 2026 draft budget comes together with a medium-term financial framework until 2029, with the whole package expected to be approved by the cabinet. The budget discussions will then start in parliament at the end of September before expected approval in both houses of parliament at the end of the year. The 2026 draft budget, with total spending of 520.5 billion euros ($606.80 billion), includes 126.7 billion euros ($147.71 billion) in investments earmarked for the modernisation of the country. That is an increase from 74.5 billion euros in 2024 and 115.7 billion euros in 2025. The investment surge in 2026 and subsequent three years will be possible thanks to a special 500 billion euro ($583 billion) infrastructure fund and an exemption from debt rules for defence spending approved in March. The special fund for infrastructure, which is also excluded from Germany's "debt brake" that limits borrowing to 0.35% of GDP, will add borrowing of 58.9 billion euros in 2026. For defence, the 100-billion-euro special fund created by former Chancellor Olaf Scholz following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which will be exhausted in 2027, will add 25.5 billion euros in borrowing in 2026. In the core budget, borrowing will go up from 33.3 billion euros in 2024 to 89.9 billion euros in 2026, the sources said. Adding those three components, total borrowing in 2026 will be 174.3 billion euros ($203.20 billion). It compares with total borrowing of 50.5 billion euros in 2024, under the previous government. Interest expenses will rise more sharply than previously forecast, the sources said, forecasting an increase to 66.5 billion euros in 2029, which compares with the 61.9 billion previously expected. Germany will raise defence spending to 3.5% of economic output by 2029, sources said on Monday. After low spending following the end of the Cold War, Germany complied with the NATO defence alliance's target of 2% of GDP for the first time in three decades in 2024 due to Scholz's special fund. NATO countries committed in June to spend 2.8% of GDP on defence in 2026 and then increase it to 5% - a new target to be achieved over the next 10 years, representing a jump worth hundreds of billions of dollars a year from the current goal. Germany's total defence spending will go up from 95.1 billion euros ($110.90 billion) in the draft budget for 2025 to 161.8 billion euros ($188.67 billion) in 2029, the sources said. Germany would be able to borrow a total 380 billion euros for defence between 2025 and 2029 thanks to debt brake reform from March, they said. ($1 = 0.8519 euros)

Trump to cut Ukraine ceasefire deadline during meeting with Starmer
Trump to cut Ukraine ceasefire deadline during meeting with Starmer

The Independent

time5 minutes ago

  • The Independent

Trump to cut Ukraine ceasefire deadline during meeting with Starmer

Donald Trump met Sir Keir Starmer in Scotland and indicated he would bring forward the deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire with Ukraine. Trump expressed significant disappointment with Vladimir Putin's decision to continue air strikes against civilian targets, citing incidents in Kyiv. He previously set a 50-day deadline for a ceasefire, threatening tariffs, but now plans to reduce this timeframe. Discussions between Trump and Sir Keir are expected to cover ceasefire efforts in Ukraine, the situation in Gaza, and progress on the UK-US trade deal. The conflict in Ukraine persists, with recent Russian drone and missile strikes reported in the Sumy region and Russian claims of shooting down Ukrainian drones near St Petersburg.

Man United transfer news: Benjamin Sesko, Ollie Watkins, Corentin Tolisso and more
Man United transfer news: Benjamin Sesko, Ollie Watkins, Corentin Tolisso and more

The Independent

time5 minutes ago

  • The Independent

Man United transfer news: Benjamin Sesko, Ollie Watkins, Corentin Tolisso and more

Manchester United face a crucial summer as Ruben Amorim finally gets the chance to shape his squad and transform his failing team into contenders at the top end of the table. It shouldn't be forgotten that Amorim initially rebuffed United's approach following the sacking of Erik ten Hag, and perhaps he was wise to try and delay the move, because what followed was a disastrous campaign cuminating in the 1-0 loss to Tottenham in the Europa League final. Now Amorim has a full preseason to prepare his side and a summer transfer window to mould his squad before a season without European football, and he must take full advantage. The release of the Premier League fixtures shows a difficult start for United, with an opening game agasint Arsenal and fixtures against Manchester City and Chelsea within their first five matches of 2025/26, and the manager's future could be called into question early should his side struggle. United got some early business done with the signing of Matheus Cunha from Wolves in a £62.5m deal before completing a move for Brentford star Bryon Mbeumo, but co-owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe has made clear that the money pot is not deep. Offloading high-wage players such as Jadon Sancho and Alejandro Garnacho seems key to funding the revolution, with a lack of movement causing frustration among fans as United lag behind their rivals. Here's everything you need to know about Manchester United's summer transfer plans. Areas to improve Perhaps it is easier to try and identify some parts of the team that don't need improvement. Three players could genuinely claim to have had decent seasons – Bruno Fernandes, Noussair Mazraoui and Amad Diallo – while Harry Maguire, Casemiro and Diogo Dalot all did OK in spells, but that is about the extent of United's reliable performers last season. Now that Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo's arrival are secured, the top priorities are: sign a proven goalscoring striker, given the toils of Rasmus Hojlund and Joshua Zirkzee up front; buy a goalkeeper to compete with (or outright replace) the error-prone Andre Onana; recruit a wing-back who can excel in Amorim's system. Done deals Ins: Bryan Mbeumo (Brentford, £70m), Matheus Cunha (Wolves, £62.5m agreed), Diego Leon (Cerro Porteno, undisclosed fee), Enzo Kana-Biyik (Le Havre, free transfer) Retained: Tom Heaton (signed new one-year deal after expiry of old contract) Outs: Marcus Rashford (Barcelona, loan), Enzo Kana-Biyik (Lausanne-Sport, loan), Daniel Gore (Rotherham, loan), Christian Eriksen (out of contract), Victor Lindelof (out of contract), Jonny Evans (out of contract) Potential targets Benjamin Sesko, RB Leipzig Man United have reportedly begun talks with RB Leipzig over a move for much-wanted frontman Benjamin Sesko. While Arsenal have cooled their interest in the Slovenian following the arrival of Viktor Gyokeres, Newcastle are also said to be keen on Sesko. With United in desperate need of a proven goalscorer, they could deem Sesko as the man to solve their woes. Corentin Tolisso, Lyon One of the latest rumours involving United sees them linked with Lyon midfielder Corentin Tolisso. The 31-year-old is coming off a decent season for the French side, and could be available for a cut-price fee due to the French side's financial troubles. Concrete links are yet to materialise, but he is thought to be available for £15m. Richard Rios, Palmeiras Another one with few concrete links, but reports in Brazil claim that United are interested in Palmeiras midfielder Richard Rios. United sent scouts to watch the Colombia international during the Club World Cup, with the Brazilian side hoping to start negotiations around the £30m mark, though Rios has already said yes to a proposal from AS Roma and could be heading to Serie A. Ollie Watkins, Aston Villa United's search for a striker continues and while Cunha and Mbeumo will be solid attacking options, there remains a desire to add a recognised number nine to the squad if possible. Watkins was the subject of interest from Arsenal in January but with the Gunners signing United target Gyokeres, the England international could be a valid, Premier League-proven attacking option. Villa would want at least £60m for Watkins, though links with Old Trafford have gone quiet after United wrapped up a move for Mbeumo.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store