Chances of city-killer asteroid crashing on the Moon just went up
Estimated to be about 130 to 300 feet wide, Asteroid 2024 YR4 grabbed the attention of astronomers when it rose on the NASA automated Sentry risk list on December 31, 2024. This list includes any known near-Earth asteroids that have a non-zero probability of impacting Earth in the future.Asteroid watch!Webb was able to help refine, by nearly 20%, our knowledge of the asteroid 2024 YR4's orbit, and the (super tiny) odds of it impacting the Moon in 2032. https://t.co/pS9UG59h6I pic.twitter.com/sv2qnU1E2P— NASA Webb Telescope (@NASAWebb) June 5, 2025Astronomers have also constructed a 3D model of asteroid 2024 YR4 using observations conducted by the Gemini South telescope in Chile.The team acknowledged that the unusually-shaped rock is one of the largest objects in recent history that could impact the Moon and that it likely originated from the main asteroid belt.advertisement"Asteroid 2024 YR4 is now too far away to observe with either space or ground-based telescopes. NASA expects to make further observations when the asteroid's orbit around the Sun brings it back into the vicinity of Earth in 2028.," the team said in their analysis.Webb's data has improved our knowledge of where the asteroid will be on Dec. 22, 2032, by nearly 20%.In a paper, published in The Astrophysical Journal Letters, the team had noted that the asteroid has a diameter of about 30–65 meters (98–213 feet). The analysis also revealed that the asteroid has a rapid rotation period of approximately one rotation per 20 minutes, as well as an unusual hockey-puck-like shape.The team determined that 2024 YR4 most likely originated from the main asteroid belt, with a high probability of being perturbed into its current near-Earth orbit by gravitational interactions with Jupiter.
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