At 2pm on Saturday, this rogue spacecraft could hit WA
Nearly 46 years after the wreckage of the Skylab space station caused a sonic boom as it blazed a kaleidoscopic trail across the WA sky, another doomed spacecraft, Kosmos 482, is expected to crash to Earth on Saturday afternoon.
And there's a slim chance it will hit WA.
For years, scientists have been feverishly attempting to calculate Kosmos 482's exact re-entry point and potential impact zone, which will mark a fiery end to a failed mission to Venus that started at the height of the Cold War.
UWA Professor David Coward is one of two Australian signatories to the International Asteroid Warning Network, a UN-backed planetary defence organisation, and said Kosmos 482 was on track to make re-entry around 2pm Perth time on Saturday.
'I haven't done the math, but (the chances of landing in WA are) probably, maybe one-in-1000, off the top of my head,' Professor Coward told The West Australian. This large storage cylinder from Skylab crashed to earth on remote Woorlba Station 230kms East of Norseman 22nd June 2009. Credit: Astrid Volzke / WA News
However, Professor Coward, who also leads the Space Situational Awareness Node at UWA's International Space Centre, said a person has 'more chance of winning the lottery' than being struck by falling space debris.
He said Kosmos 482 was being currently being tracked by radar and the most likely re-entry point was above WA, before the craft breaks up over Afghanistan some 20 to 30 seconds later.
That's an indication of just how fast the spacecraft is travelling — more than 27,000km/h, although atmospheric friction will eventually slow it to under 300km/h. Ground tracking data for Kosmos 482 showing the flight path over the Earth. Credit: supplied
The immense heat generated by this friction typically incinerates space junk before it reaches the Earth's surface, but Kosmos 482 is different.
At nearly half a tonne in weight and roughly the size of a washing machine, this titanium alloy craft was built to survive such extreme conditions.
'Normally, you would predict a break-up of the satellite in the atmosphere, and nothing would return,' Professor Coward explained.
'This particular Kosmos is designed to land on Venus, it's not designed to land on Earth, and Venus is very hostile, with extremely high temperatures . . . so, in terms of an impact, it's highly, highly probable that this will impact the Earth.' Skylab made a big impact when a piece of the space station landed in the Nullarbor Plain. NASA officals inspect the piece on display in Kalgoorlie. Credit: supplied
From 1961 to 1984, the former Soviet Union launched 29 spacecraft towards Venus as part of the Venera missions, with 10 successfully landing on the planet, three overshooting and falling into orbit around the Sun, and the rest suffering catastrophic failures on launch or during the journey.
Kosmos 482 is actually the lander module from one of these missions that has survived in orbit for decades after the rest of the rocket failed to slip the surly bonds of Earth and fell back to the surface in 1972.
With its spherical shape and sturdy construction, the craft is expected to travel through the atmosphere like a cannonball, rather than leaving a trail of burning debris as per Skylab. This large storage cylinder from Skylab crashed to earth on remote Woorlba Station 230kms East of Norseman on 22nd June 2009. Credit: Astrid Volzke / WA News
The US space station left debris over a large area of WA in 1979, some of which is currently on display in the Esperance Museum.
Professor Coward said WA was a 'hub for space surveillance', a role that is set to become even more critical in future as the space surrounding Earth gets increasingly crowded.
For instance, there is a SpaceX Starlink satellite re-entering the atmosphere every day, and this is only getting worse.
'We need to understand what's happening in the skies above us, and what are any potential threats, whether it's accidental or purposeful,' Professor Coward said.
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The Advertiser
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- The Advertiser
AI to help stock our pantries ... and feed astronauts
Stored meats, tomatoes and even onions can't last a few weeks let alone a seven-to-10 month journey to Mars but Australian scientists say artificial intelligence may help bridge the 225 million kilometre gap. Space experiments are among a number of ways AI is being used to investigate the future of food: whether it can be preserved for longer, made to taste differently or grown without the threat of disease. Ultimately, decisions about whether AI-modified foods are ready to feed to distant travellers or grace dining tables will be up to Australian regulators. Meanwhile, government-funded research centre Plants for Space launched in October and is aiming to produce food suitable for consumption during long-term missions to the stars. It has until 2030 - the next time humans are scheduled to rocket to the moon - to come up with the right stuff but is also investigating how to fulfil the dietary requirements of NASA's 2040 Mars launch. It has until 2030 - the next time humans are scheduled to rocket to the moon - to come up with the right stuff but is also investigating how to fulfil the dietary requirements of NASA's 2040 Mars launch. Because foods generally expire within days or weeks of purchase, the team is probing how to make items last long past their expiry date. Genetically modifying and gene-editing foods could be a solution, according to Plants for Space investigator Associate Professor Sigfredo Fuentes. Genetic modification occurs when foreign DNA is inserted into a product to enhance its nutrition profile, improve drought tolerance or reduce the need for pesticides. It's similar to genome editing that rewrites DNA from the original food to enhance its colour, nutritional value or remove diseases. Some foods can also be genetically modified using nutrient-rich water, rather than soil and seeds, which may be helpful when humans start planet-hopping. "(Genetically modified organisms are) basically evolution on steroids - what happened for millions of years to produce a plant or a product that is edible for humans, we can do in a week," Prof Fuentes tells AAP. "Every plant is way different and you need substitute soil, so they need to be modified." Scientifically altering plants can take hours but the scientist, who also works at the University of Melbourne, sees AI as a way to simplify the process and reduce costs. Prof Fuentes is working on 3D-printed artificially intelligent noses and tongues that use sensors to monitor the aroma and taste of objects. Not only could they help deem food safe but accommodate an astronaut's taste, he says. "We obtain all the biometrics, the emotional response, physiological response, heart rate, blood pressure (of people)", he says. "AI can give a certainty using nutritional algorithms, as well, that it is not going to pose any problem." 3D printers can also create proteins, fats and carbohydrates and these space experiments could also solve food production challenges on Earth. "We are looking into how to reduce food waste and try to increase the usability of 100 per cent of the resources we have," Prof Fuentes says. "In really harsh environments like the desert, Antarctica, war-torn countries as well underground, using vertical farming, all those problems are ... being solved from our way of thinking on how to produce food in space." AI is also being used to predict the outcome of crossbreeding plants, says British molecular biologist and SynBioBeta chief executive John Cumbers. Large-language models can be used to find patterns and relationships within foods, he says, allowing researchers to develop proteins and enzymes that can reduce food pollutants. "Let's say a farmer is trying to cross a tomato that has a large body of fruit with a tomato that has a rich-red colour," Mr Cumbers explains. "They take the male plant and the female flowers ... and they're doing the cross pollination of the plants. "Instead of guessing what the tomato is going to produce, at a molecular level you can now look at the sequence of DNA of the tomato. "You can make a new tomato that might have a red colour through genetic engineering, rather than through a random process of selection which is what traditional farming does." The CSIRO is also investigating ways to expand AI's role in the food production industry but but is strictly bound by safety and policy outcomes. The removal of cells and proteins is a complex task, as it is hard to identify and isolate the safe characteristics of plants. Bananas, cotton, canola, Indian mustard and safflower are the only genetically modified foods allowed in Australia, while in the US, potatoes, corn, apples and sugar beets can be modified. "As more datasets become available and tools mature, we expect broader uptake across the sector," a CSIRO spokesperson tells AAP. "Farmers, breeders and researchers use AI to model climate impacts, optimise fertiliser use, predict crop yields, accelerate traditional crop breeding and develop new food products based on nutritional or functional properties." Elsewhere, Australia's food production sector is variously using AI to identify wine berries affected by smoke and eradicate weeds from native crops. At Delungra in northern NSW, farmer Martin Murray expects AI will be increasingly adopted as more advanced solutions arise. "Genome sequencing is a bit like when you go to buy a car," he says. "You're not involved in the design and testing of the HiLux, you just go to Toyota. "At the end of the day, it's just another tool that plant breeders are using to help them breed better varieties that help us grow more grain and make us more profitable." Although genome edited or genetically modified food may become a future reality for farmers and scientists, one question persists: will people eat it? Mr Cumbers says research proves there are health benefits but it will be up to governments to regulate the safety of products. "There's a lot of other things that can cause negative harm to your health from food, like eating too much sugar, drinking alcohol, eating food high in sodium," he says. "I don't really think there's any evidence there's any negative effects from genetically modified food .. as it has been around for a number of decades now." Stored meats, tomatoes and even onions can't last a few weeks let alone a seven-to-10 month journey to Mars but Australian scientists say artificial intelligence may help bridge the 225 million kilometre gap. Space experiments are among a number of ways AI is being used to investigate the future of food: whether it can be preserved for longer, made to taste differently or grown without the threat of disease. Ultimately, decisions about whether AI-modified foods are ready to feed to distant travellers or grace dining tables will be up to Australian regulators. Meanwhile, government-funded research centre Plants for Space launched in October and is aiming to produce food suitable for consumption during long-term missions to the stars. It has until 2030 - the next time humans are scheduled to rocket to the moon - to come up with the right stuff but is also investigating how to fulfil the dietary requirements of NASA's 2040 Mars launch. It has until 2030 - the next time humans are scheduled to rocket to the moon - to come up with the right stuff but is also investigating how to fulfil the dietary requirements of NASA's 2040 Mars launch. Because foods generally expire within days or weeks of purchase, the team is probing how to make items last long past their expiry date. Genetically modifying and gene-editing foods could be a solution, according to Plants for Space investigator Associate Professor Sigfredo Fuentes. Genetic modification occurs when foreign DNA is inserted into a product to enhance its nutrition profile, improve drought tolerance or reduce the need for pesticides. It's similar to genome editing that rewrites DNA from the original food to enhance its colour, nutritional value or remove diseases. Some foods can also be genetically modified using nutrient-rich water, rather than soil and seeds, which may be helpful when humans start planet-hopping. "(Genetically modified organisms are) basically evolution on steroids - what happened for millions of years to produce a plant or a product that is edible for humans, we can do in a week," Prof Fuentes tells AAP. "Every plant is way different and you need substitute soil, so they need to be modified." Scientifically altering plants can take hours but the scientist, who also works at the University of Melbourne, sees AI as a way to simplify the process and reduce costs. Prof Fuentes is working on 3D-printed artificially intelligent noses and tongues that use sensors to monitor the aroma and taste of objects. Not only could they help deem food safe but accommodate an astronaut's taste, he says. "We obtain all the biometrics, the emotional response, physiological response, heart rate, blood pressure (of people)", he says. "AI can give a certainty using nutritional algorithms, as well, that it is not going to pose any problem." 3D printers can also create proteins, fats and carbohydrates and these space experiments could also solve food production challenges on Earth. "We are looking into how to reduce food waste and try to increase the usability of 100 per cent of the resources we have," Prof Fuentes says. "In really harsh environments like the desert, Antarctica, war-torn countries as well underground, using vertical farming, all those problems are ... being solved from our way of thinking on how to produce food in space." AI is also being used to predict the outcome of crossbreeding plants, says British molecular biologist and SynBioBeta chief executive John Cumbers. Large-language models can be used to find patterns and relationships within foods, he says, allowing researchers to develop proteins and enzymes that can reduce food pollutants. "Let's say a farmer is trying to cross a tomato that has a large body of fruit with a tomato that has a rich-red colour," Mr Cumbers explains. "They take the male plant and the female flowers ... and they're doing the cross pollination of the plants. "Instead of guessing what the tomato is going to produce, at a molecular level you can now look at the sequence of DNA of the tomato. "You can make a new tomato that might have a red colour through genetic engineering, rather than through a random process of selection which is what traditional farming does." The CSIRO is also investigating ways to expand AI's role in the food production industry but but is strictly bound by safety and policy outcomes. The removal of cells and proteins is a complex task, as it is hard to identify and isolate the safe characteristics of plants. Bananas, cotton, canola, Indian mustard and safflower are the only genetically modified foods allowed in Australia, while in the US, potatoes, corn, apples and sugar beets can be modified. "As more datasets become available and tools mature, we expect broader uptake across the sector," a CSIRO spokesperson tells AAP. "Farmers, breeders and researchers use AI to model climate impacts, optimise fertiliser use, predict crop yields, accelerate traditional crop breeding and develop new food products based on nutritional or functional properties." Elsewhere, Australia's food production sector is variously using AI to identify wine berries affected by smoke and eradicate weeds from native crops. At Delungra in northern NSW, farmer Martin Murray expects AI will be increasingly adopted as more advanced solutions arise. "Genome sequencing is a bit like when you go to buy a car," he says. "You're not involved in the design and testing of the HiLux, you just go to Toyota. "At the end of the day, it's just another tool that plant breeders are using to help them breed better varieties that help us grow more grain and make us more profitable." Although genome edited or genetically modified food may become a future reality for farmers and scientists, one question persists: will people eat it? Mr Cumbers says research proves there are health benefits but it will be up to governments to regulate the safety of products. "There's a lot of other things that can cause negative harm to your health from food, like eating too much sugar, drinking alcohol, eating food high in sodium," he says. "I don't really think there's any evidence there's any negative effects from genetically modified food .. as it has been around for a number of decades now." Stored meats, tomatoes and even onions can't last a few weeks let alone a seven-to-10 month journey to Mars but Australian scientists say artificial intelligence may help bridge the 225 million kilometre gap. Space experiments are among a number of ways AI is being used to investigate the future of food: whether it can be preserved for longer, made to taste differently or grown without the threat of disease. Ultimately, decisions about whether AI-modified foods are ready to feed to distant travellers or grace dining tables will be up to Australian regulators. Meanwhile, government-funded research centre Plants for Space launched in October and is aiming to produce food suitable for consumption during long-term missions to the stars. It has until 2030 - the next time humans are scheduled to rocket to the moon - to come up with the right stuff but is also investigating how to fulfil the dietary requirements of NASA's 2040 Mars launch. It has until 2030 - the next time humans are scheduled to rocket to the moon - to come up with the right stuff but is also investigating how to fulfil the dietary requirements of NASA's 2040 Mars launch. Because foods generally expire within days or weeks of purchase, the team is probing how to make items last long past their expiry date. Genetically modifying and gene-editing foods could be a solution, according to Plants for Space investigator Associate Professor Sigfredo Fuentes. Genetic modification occurs when foreign DNA is inserted into a product to enhance its nutrition profile, improve drought tolerance or reduce the need for pesticides. It's similar to genome editing that rewrites DNA from the original food to enhance its colour, nutritional value or remove diseases. Some foods can also be genetically modified using nutrient-rich water, rather than soil and seeds, which may be helpful when humans start planet-hopping. "(Genetically modified organisms are) basically evolution on steroids - what happened for millions of years to produce a plant or a product that is edible for humans, we can do in a week," Prof Fuentes tells AAP. "Every plant is way different and you need substitute soil, so they need to be modified." Scientifically altering plants can take hours but the scientist, who also works at the University of Melbourne, sees AI as a way to simplify the process and reduce costs. Prof Fuentes is working on 3D-printed artificially intelligent noses and tongues that use sensors to monitor the aroma and taste of objects. Not only could they help deem food safe but accommodate an astronaut's taste, he says. "We obtain all the biometrics, the emotional response, physiological response, heart rate, blood pressure (of people)", he says. "AI can give a certainty using nutritional algorithms, as well, that it is not going to pose any problem." 3D printers can also create proteins, fats and carbohydrates and these space experiments could also solve food production challenges on Earth. "We are looking into how to reduce food waste and try to increase the usability of 100 per cent of the resources we have," Prof Fuentes says. "In really harsh environments like the desert, Antarctica, war-torn countries as well underground, using vertical farming, all those problems are ... being solved from our way of thinking on how to produce food in space." AI is also being used to predict the outcome of crossbreeding plants, says British molecular biologist and SynBioBeta chief executive John Cumbers. Large-language models can be used to find patterns and relationships within foods, he says, allowing researchers to develop proteins and enzymes that can reduce food pollutants. "Let's say a farmer is trying to cross a tomato that has a large body of fruit with a tomato that has a rich-red colour," Mr Cumbers explains. "They take the male plant and the female flowers ... and they're doing the cross pollination of the plants. "Instead of guessing what the tomato is going to produce, at a molecular level you can now look at the sequence of DNA of the tomato. "You can make a new tomato that might have a red colour through genetic engineering, rather than through a random process of selection which is what traditional farming does." The CSIRO is also investigating ways to expand AI's role in the food production industry but but is strictly bound by safety and policy outcomes. The removal of cells and proteins is a complex task, as it is hard to identify and isolate the safe characteristics of plants. Bananas, cotton, canola, Indian mustard and safflower are the only genetically modified foods allowed in Australia, while in the US, potatoes, corn, apples and sugar beets can be modified. "As more datasets become available and tools mature, we expect broader uptake across the sector," a CSIRO spokesperson tells AAP. "Farmers, breeders and researchers use AI to model climate impacts, optimise fertiliser use, predict crop yields, accelerate traditional crop breeding and develop new food products based on nutritional or functional properties." Elsewhere, Australia's food production sector is variously using AI to identify wine berries affected by smoke and eradicate weeds from native crops. At Delungra in northern NSW, farmer Martin Murray expects AI will be increasingly adopted as more advanced solutions arise. "Genome sequencing is a bit like when you go to buy a car," he says. "You're not involved in the design and testing of the HiLux, you just go to Toyota. "At the end of the day, it's just another tool that plant breeders are using to help them breed better varieties that help us grow more grain and make us more profitable." Although genome edited or genetically modified food may become a future reality for farmers and scientists, one question persists: will people eat it? Mr Cumbers says research proves there are health benefits but it will be up to governments to regulate the safety of products. "There's a lot of other things that can cause negative harm to your health from food, like eating too much sugar, drinking alcohol, eating food high in sodium," he says. "I don't really think there's any evidence there's any negative effects from genetically modified food .. as it has been around for a number of decades now." Stored meats, tomatoes and even onions can't last a few weeks let alone a seven-to-10 month journey to Mars but Australian scientists say artificial intelligence may help bridge the 225 million kilometre gap. Space experiments are among a number of ways AI is being used to investigate the future of food: whether it can be preserved for longer, made to taste differently or grown without the threat of disease. Ultimately, decisions about whether AI-modified foods are ready to feed to distant travellers or grace dining tables will be up to Australian regulators. Meanwhile, government-funded research centre Plants for Space launched in October and is aiming to produce food suitable for consumption during long-term missions to the stars. It has until 2030 - the next time humans are scheduled to rocket to the moon - to come up with the right stuff but is also investigating how to fulfil the dietary requirements of NASA's 2040 Mars launch. It has until 2030 - the next time humans are scheduled to rocket to the moon - to come up with the right stuff but is also investigating how to fulfil the dietary requirements of NASA's 2040 Mars launch. Because foods generally expire within days or weeks of purchase, the team is probing how to make items last long past their expiry date. Genetically modifying and gene-editing foods could be a solution, according to Plants for Space investigator Associate Professor Sigfredo Fuentes. Genetic modification occurs when foreign DNA is inserted into a product to enhance its nutrition profile, improve drought tolerance or reduce the need for pesticides. It's similar to genome editing that rewrites DNA from the original food to enhance its colour, nutritional value or remove diseases. Some foods can also be genetically modified using nutrient-rich water, rather than soil and seeds, which may be helpful when humans start planet-hopping. "(Genetically modified organisms are) basically evolution on steroids - what happened for millions of years to produce a plant or a product that is edible for humans, we can do in a week," Prof Fuentes tells AAP. "Every plant is way different and you need substitute soil, so they need to be modified." Scientifically altering plants can take hours but the scientist, who also works at the University of Melbourne, sees AI as a way to simplify the process and reduce costs. Prof Fuentes is working on 3D-printed artificially intelligent noses and tongues that use sensors to monitor the aroma and taste of objects. Not only could they help deem food safe but accommodate an astronaut's taste, he says. "We obtain all the biometrics, the emotional response, physiological response, heart rate, blood pressure (of people)", he says. "AI can give a certainty using nutritional algorithms, as well, that it is not going to pose any problem." 3D printers can also create proteins, fats and carbohydrates and these space experiments could also solve food production challenges on Earth. "We are looking into how to reduce food waste and try to increase the usability of 100 per cent of the resources we have," Prof Fuentes says. "In really harsh environments like the desert, Antarctica, war-torn countries as well underground, using vertical farming, all those problems are ... being solved from our way of thinking on how to produce food in space." AI is also being used to predict the outcome of crossbreeding plants, says British molecular biologist and SynBioBeta chief executive John Cumbers. Large-language models can be used to find patterns and relationships within foods, he says, allowing researchers to develop proteins and enzymes that can reduce food pollutants. "Let's say a farmer is trying to cross a tomato that has a large body of fruit with a tomato that has a rich-red colour," Mr Cumbers explains. "They take the male plant and the female flowers ... and they're doing the cross pollination of the plants. "Instead of guessing what the tomato is going to produce, at a molecular level you can now look at the sequence of DNA of the tomato. "You can make a new tomato that might have a red colour through genetic engineering, rather than through a random process of selection which is what traditional farming does." The CSIRO is also investigating ways to expand AI's role in the food production industry but but is strictly bound by safety and policy outcomes. The removal of cells and proteins is a complex task, as it is hard to identify and isolate the safe characteristics of plants. Bananas, cotton, canola, Indian mustard and safflower are the only genetically modified foods allowed in Australia, while in the US, potatoes, corn, apples and sugar beets can be modified. "As more datasets become available and tools mature, we expect broader uptake across the sector," a CSIRO spokesperson tells AAP. "Farmers, breeders and researchers use AI to model climate impacts, optimise fertiliser use, predict crop yields, accelerate traditional crop breeding and develop new food products based on nutritional or functional properties." Elsewhere, Australia's food production sector is variously using AI to identify wine berries affected by smoke and eradicate weeds from native crops. At Delungra in northern NSW, farmer Martin Murray expects AI will be increasingly adopted as more advanced solutions arise. "Genome sequencing is a bit like when you go to buy a car," he says. "You're not involved in the design and testing of the HiLux, you just go to Toyota. "At the end of the day, it's just another tool that plant breeders are using to help them breed better varieties that help us grow more grain and make us more profitable." Although genome edited or genetically modified food may become a future reality for farmers and scientists, one question persists: will people eat it? Mr Cumbers says research proves there are health benefits but it will be up to governments to regulate the safety of products. "There's a lot of other things that can cause negative harm to your health from food, like eating too much sugar, drinking alcohol, eating food high in sodium," he says. "I don't really think there's any evidence there's any negative effects from genetically modified food .. as it has been around for a number of decades now."
The Age
a day ago
- The Age
Ozempic in a pill? The next generation of weight-loss drugs emerges
'The development of GLP-1 and incretin-based drugs has revolutionised the space. It has carved out the biggest class of drugs ever. And it has the power to truly revolutionise our health-span,' said Associate Professor Garron Dodd, head of the Metabolic Neuroscience Research Laboratory at the University of Melbourne and founder of Gallant Bio, which is developing its own obesity drugs. 'It's a glorious dawn, but it's just the start.' Weight loss in a pill Much as our eyes and ears sense the world and send data to our brains, our digestive tracts need ways of sending back data on what they are eating, and how much. They do this, in part, by secreting various chemical signals – hormones. Glucagon-like peptide-1 is secreted by the intestines and triggers the pancreas to produce insulin. The first GLP-1 drugs took advantage of this to become powerful treatments for diabetes. But GLP-1 has much wider effects beyond blood-sugar control. Receptors for the hormone spread throughout the body, even in the brain, where they trigger a feeling of fullness and decrease appetite. A once-weekly dose of semaglutide, plus lifestyle changes, led volunteers in a phase 3 trial to lose 14.9 per cent of their body weight over 15 months. GLP-1 drugs like Wegovy essentially copy that human hormone. That makes them fragile. They need to be kept refrigerated, and injected subcutaneously rather than taken by mouth – as the stomach's acid would quickly break them down. An oral version of semaglutide has been developed, but only 1 per cent of the drug actually makes its way to the target receptors, and it appears less effective than the injectable version for weight loss. Loading Researchers at Japan's Chugai Pharmaceutical Co figured out a way around this problem. They designed a small molecule that can bind to the same receptor as GLP-1 and trigger it. It mimics the effect without mimicking the structure. 'It's a development I never would have thought feasible,' said Professor Michael Horowitz, a University of Adelaide researcher who authored a commentary on the drug in the Lancet. Chugai licensed the molecule to US-based Eli Lilly in 2018. Last week, the company reported participants on the highest dose in a clinical trial lost 7.9 per cent of their body weight over 40 weeks. The full details of the trial have not yet been reported, and whether the weight loss is maintained over the longer term is unclear. More than a quarter of patients reported diarrhoea, 16 per cent nausea and 14 per cent vomiting. The preliminary results are 'close enough to broadly call it similar' to semaglutide, said Professor Jonathan Shaw, who led the Australian arm of Lilly's trial at the Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute in Melbourne. 'I don't think we can confidently say it's better or worse. It's definitely in the same ballpark.' It's also not known if the drug will offer the range of other benefits that GLP-1 inhibitors provide in addition to weight loss, like reductions in cardiovascular disease and Alzheimer's risk (and maybe even addictive behaviours). Horowitz said the efficacy data was promising, but he wanted to see more information about adverse effects, which he said were understated generally across semaglutide trials because they relied on patients to report their own side effects. 'It hasn't served the interests of pharma to quantify how well this is tolerated.' Pfizer was developing a similar once-daily GLP-1 pill but cancelled the program in April after a patient in a clinical trial suffered liver damage. A pill should, theoretically, be cheaper and easier to make than an injector – Novo Nordisk, maker of Wegovy and its diabetes drug antecedent Ozempic, has struggled to keep up with demand for semaglutide – and dramatically easier to transport. At present, the drug must be kept refrigerated right from European factories to a patient's home. 'That all adds to the cost,' said Shaw. There could also be cost benefits from increased competition as more drugs are approved – possibly pushing the price down far enough for governments to consider subsidising it. Lilly expects to apply for regulatory approval for the drug later this year. While orforglipron has attracted the most excitement – Eli Lilly's shares have surged since they announced the trial results – it is just one of several new drugs in late-stage development. These drugs might be of particular value to 15 per cent or so of people whose bodies do not seem to respond to semaglutide. And people don't seem to stay on the injectable drugs – less than half are still using them a year later, per a study 2024 study – despite the fact weight rebound is likely if you stop using them. 'Is it the injection? Is it the cost? Or is it due to adverse effects? We don't know,' said Horowitz. The new drugs might also offer weight-loss benefits. Mounjaro, for example, mimics both GLP-1 and the gastric inhibitory polypeptide, which increases metabolism and appears to lead to better weight-loss results. The new drugs, like Lilly's retatrutide, target even more receptors, with the hope of even greater effects. It's all good news for Rochelle McDonald. She does not mind taking a weekly injection – 'the stabby-stab' – now she's found ways of coping with the side effects. But paying $240 a month for her current dose of the medicine is 'a commitment in itself'. 'I think a daily pill would be good,' she said. 'If it comes in at a good price point.'
Sydney Morning Herald
a day ago
- Sydney Morning Herald
Ozempic in a pill? The next generation of weight-loss drugs emerges
'The development of GLP-1 and incretin-based drugs has revolutionised the space. It has carved out the biggest class of drugs ever. And it has the power to truly revolutionise our health-span,' said Associate Professor Garron Dodd, head of the Metabolic Neuroscience Research Laboratory at the University of Melbourne and founder of Gallant Bio, which is developing its own obesity drugs. 'It's a glorious dawn, but it's just the start.' Weight loss in a pill Much as our eyes and ears sense the world and send data to our brains, our digestive tracts need ways of sending back data on what they are eating, and how much. They do this, in part, by secreting various chemical signals – hormones. Glucagon-like peptide-1 is secreted by the intestines and triggers the pancreas to produce insulin. The first GLP-1 drugs took advantage of this to become powerful treatments for diabetes. But GLP-1 has much wider effects beyond blood-sugar control. Receptors for the hormone spread throughout the body, even in the brain, where they trigger a feeling of fullness and decrease appetite. A once-weekly dose of semaglutide, plus lifestyle changes, led volunteers in a phase 3 trial to lose 14.9 per cent of their body weight over 15 months. GLP-1 drugs like Wegovy essentially copy that human hormone. That makes them fragile. They need to be kept refrigerated, and injected subcutaneously rather than taken by mouth – as the stomach's acid would quickly break them down. An oral version of semaglutide has been developed, but only 1 per cent of the drug actually makes its way to the target receptors, and it appears less effective than the injectable version for weight loss. Loading Researchers at Japan's Chugai Pharmaceutical Co figured out a way around this problem. They designed a small molecule that can bind to the same receptor as GLP-1 and trigger it. It mimics the effect without mimicking the structure. 'It's a development I never would have thought feasible,' said Professor Michael Horowitz, a University of Adelaide researcher who authored a commentary on the drug in the Lancet. Chugai licensed the molecule to US-based Eli Lilly in 2018. Last week, the company reported participants on the highest dose in a clinical trial lost 7.9 per cent of their body weight over 40 weeks. The full details of the trial have not yet been reported, and whether the weight loss is maintained over the longer term is unclear. More than a quarter of patients reported diarrhoea, 16 per cent nausea and 14 per cent vomiting. The preliminary results are 'close enough to broadly call it similar' to semaglutide, said Professor Jonathan Shaw, who led the Australian arm of Lilly's trial at the Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute in Melbourne. 'I don't think we can confidently say it's better or worse. It's definitely in the same ballpark.' It's also not known if the drug will offer the range of other benefits that GLP-1 inhibitors provide in addition to weight loss, like reductions in cardiovascular disease and Alzheimer's risk (and maybe even addictive behaviours). Horowitz said the efficacy data was promising, but he wanted to see more information about adverse effects, which he said were understated generally across semaglutide trials because they relied on patients to report their own side effects. 'It hasn't served the interests of pharma to quantify how well this is tolerated.' Pfizer was developing a similar once-daily GLP-1 pill but cancelled the program in April after a patient in a clinical trial suffered liver damage. A pill should, theoretically, be cheaper and easier to make than an injector – Novo Nordisk, maker of Wegovy and its diabetes drug antecedent Ozempic, has struggled to keep up with demand for semaglutide – and dramatically easier to transport. At present, the drug must be kept refrigerated right from European factories to a patient's home. 'That all adds to the cost,' said Shaw. There could also be cost benefits from increased competition as more drugs are approved – possibly pushing the price down far enough for governments to consider subsidising it. Lilly expects to apply for regulatory approval for the drug later this year. While orforglipron has attracted the most excitement – Eli Lilly's shares have surged since they announced the trial results – it is just one of several new drugs in late-stage development. These drugs might be of particular value to 15 per cent or so of people whose bodies do not seem to respond to semaglutide. And people don't seem to stay on the injectable drugs – less than half are still using them a year later, per a study 2024 study – despite the fact weight rebound is likely if you stop using them. 'Is it the injection? Is it the cost? Or is it due to adverse effects? We don't know,' said Horowitz. The new drugs might also offer weight-loss benefits. Mounjaro, for example, mimics both GLP-1 and the gastric inhibitory polypeptide, which increases metabolism and appears to lead to better weight-loss results. The new drugs, like Lilly's retatrutide, target even more receptors, with the hope of even greater effects. It's all good news for Rochelle McDonald. She does not mind taking a weekly injection – 'the stabby-stab' – now she's found ways of coping with the side effects. But paying $240 a month for her current dose of the medicine is 'a commitment in itself'. 'I think a daily pill would be good,' she said. 'If it comes in at a good price point.'
