US Senate version of Trump tax-cut bill would add $3.3 trillion to debt, CBO says
WASHINGTON, June 29 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump's sweeping tax-cut and spending bill would add $3.3 trillion to the nation's debt over a decade, the nonpartisan U.S. Congressional Budget Office said on Sunday.
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The Independent
19 minutes ago
- The Independent
No state is safe: Trans people are planning to move overseas rather than live in Trump's America
Isabella remembers the moment she knew she needed to leave the U.S. It was March 2023, when Daily Wire host Michael Knowles gave a chilling speech to one of the most influential conservative gatherings in the country. "There can be no middle way in dealing with transgenderism. It is all or nothing," Knowles told the Conservative Political Action Conference. "For the good of society, and especially for the good of the poor people who have fallen victim to this confusion, transgenderism must be eradicated from public life entirely: the whole preposterous ideology, at every level." To Isabella, who is trans, this declaration was a clear sign of the Republican Party's increasing embrace of hardcore anti-trans politics — and a potential harbinger of "genocidal action." This spring, after years of preparation, she moved to Chile. She is not alone. In the wake of the Supreme Court's recent decision in US v Skrmetti, which upheld Tennessee and other red states' rights to ban transition healthcare for minors, four trans people told The Independent that the case had solidified their plans to escape the USA. Like every single person interviewed for this story, Isabella would only speak under a pseudonym out for fear of reprisals from far-right extremist groups, or perhaps even government officials. And while the Skrmetti decision only concerned trans children, those who spoke to The Independent feared that the Court's reasoning could make it easier to restrict trans healthcare for adults too — as Republicans are already trying to do nationally. "Before the 2024 election, my timeline for relocating abroad was more like five to ten years out, if at all. Before today, I was considering sometime within the next year or two. But now, I am thinking of moving by the end of the summer," said Wayne, a trans man in his late forties in Washington state, on the day the Skrmetti ruling came down. Though he also has personal reasons to leave the country, he said the Skrmetti ruling was "another falling domino." "I don't want to leave my country, but things have been on a downward trajectory for trans rights for the past several years," he said. "We have transitioned from a system of democracy into an electoral autocracy... no one is coming to save us." 'I won't accept second class status' In the past few years, 25 U.S. states have passed laws restricting banning transition healthcare for minors, according to the pro-LGBT+ Movement Advancement Project — covering an estimated 37 percent of all trans under-18s. Some states have also enacted restrictions on adult care, and Republicans in Congress have made repeated attempts to defund or limit access at the federal level. Meanwhile, conservative rhetoric about trans people has become ever more venomous. Knowles likened them to "demons." One Republican candidate claimed pro-trans teachers should be "executed." Multiple serving GOP legislators have falsely claimed that random mass shooting suspects are trans, while Donald Trump Jr has alleged — contrary to all available evidence — that trans people are "the most violent domestic terror threat" in the country. Then came Donald Trump's second inauguration, and his blitzkrieg effort to centralize federal power under the office of the president. Since then migration has become a regular topic among trans people both online and in person, along with acidic social media debates about the ethics and class politics of fleeing one's country. "My plans for emigration have been in a holding pattern,' said one trans lawyer in her forties, who began transitioning roughly 25 years ago and is now considering leaving the country. "Getting all the documents and background checks and apostilles to be able to move, and contacting contractors... but not making any decisions yet in the increasingly vain hope that abandoning my family and home country won't become a necessity,' she said. "This [Skrmetti] decision definitely made me get back into planning mode. I had begun to build up some steely resolve about fighting for my country... but days like this really suck out all the air. "When you find yourself crying at random songs, no matter how limited their emotional appeal would be in any other situation, it's hard not to look at your hands and then up and the sky and say 'where do I go now?' "I won't accept being a pariah, or being denied hormones despite being post-[surgery]. I won't accept second or third class status." The lawyer also argues that the SCOTUS ruling may be widened, since there is "nothing in the decision that indicates it will remain confined to pediatric care questions." Stacy Davis, a 42-year-old Nashville realtor who has a trans child, told The Independent that her family will stay in Tennessee as long as they possibly can, even if it means traveling regularly for medical care at great expense. But if they are forced to move, it would probably be abroad. 'I think it would have been easier to move from Tennessee to a blue state if [Kamala Harris] would have won, because at least then we would have had some reassurances that on a federal level we would be more protected,' she said. But now, 'it almost feels like a blue state can't save us.' Multiple groups have sprung up to help trans people migrate, either within the U.S. or internationally. Some are open and legally incorporated, such as the Denver-based non-profit Trans Continental Pipeline. "At the heart of it, we're glorified movers, trying to help people get where they want to go and out of traumatic situations," founder Keira Richards told Mother Jones last year. Other groups are more secretive and ad-hoc, fearful of attacks and harassment by anti-trans extremists. "We've had a few people today contact us and/or announce their desire to emigrate faster from the USA, considering the broader implications of this ruling," a member of one such group told The Independent. "People of course are stockpiling hormones and getting passports in order if they can... I can tell you our top destinations are Canada, Germany, Portugal, Spain, Thailand, and the Netherlands in particular." The group includes trans people in countries across the world, this person said, including some lawyers who help people understand the implications of new U.S. anti-trans policies. In some places, they have contacts who can help trans immigrants get settled in and find community. Group members gather and share information on immigration pathways, visa requirements, and the level of freedom and protection available to trans people in various countries. 'We've read our history books. We know where this goes' The story of one trans woman we'll call Rachel illustrates how individual areas and then the entire USA have become progressively more hostile to trans people. Back in 2023, having already moved from the Tennessee countryside where she grew up to the big city of Nashville, she felt forced to flee her home state entirely. "At that time I was highly skeptical that it would ever get to the point where I had to emigrate," Rachel told The Independent. "I have to say that I completely stand corrected." Initially, Nashville had felt safe enough for her to finally transition. But beginning in around 2020, when conservative news site The Daily Wire moved its headquarters to Nashville, she felt a major "tonal shift." Relatives who'd once been supportive began to turn against her. Nazi flyers were stuffed into her mailbox. She received "direct threats" from people she believes were probably her neighbors, and suffered repeated housing discrimination despite having a steady income. Daily Wire host Matt Walsh, a prominent anti-trans activist, held a "rally to end child mutilation" at the state capitol. In March 2023, on the same day Tennessee's Republican governor Bill Lee signed the healthcare ban at the heart of the Skrmetti case, someone draped a huge swastika-emblazoned banner from a Nashville bridge thanking him for "tirelessly working to fight trannies and fags." At another point, Rachel recalls, someone projected the words "TRANS-FREE TENNESSEE" on a local building. Rachel even had a brush with Skrmetti himself: that is, Tennessee's attorney general Jonathan Skrmetti, against whom the Supreme Court lawsuit was filed. In 2022 he demanded detailed patient records from Rachel's trans healthcare provider Vanderbilt University, leading to accusations that he was trying to compile a "list" of trans people. "Skrmetti seems like the ghost that will hound me for the rest of my life," complained Rachel. "It's always Tennessee! It's a state out of which the current manifestation of conservative politics has grown. And I was there to witness it.' Now those politics have taken root in the White House, and Rachel is applying for citizenship in the foreign country where one of her parents was born — something she's always been eligible for, but only recently started seriously working on. For her, the new Supreme Court decision changed nothing. But listening to the oral arguments before Trump's inauguration, and anticipating which way the case would go, was part of what made her plan to leave in the first place. Even though she isn't totally sure whether she'll go, Rachel wants to be ready at short notice. She keeps many of her belongings in storage, and has abandoned some of her hobbies for fear that the equipment would weigh her down. "I think that everything is on the table at this point," she said. "The same rhetorical patterns, in some cases precisely the same accusations, that are being levied at trans people were being levied at the Jewish population [in Nazi Germany]. "We've read our history books. We know the outcome of that is... I think it's naive to think that it's impossible in the United States." (Knowles, for his part, has insisted that his 2023 CPAC speech was not a call for cultural genocide against trans people because they are not a group with shared genetics, and also because they are "not a legitimate category of being.") To Isabella, living in Chile has been both a challenge and a relief. She's still figuring out her medical care, still learning Spanish, still trying to meet new friends. "Winter and summer are flipped, which is so weird to me," she said. Not everyone could have made the move, she notes. She was lucky enough to have some local contacts and a job that she could keep doing from her new country, as well as the financial resources necessary to uproot her life. But she no longer has to deal with the daily drumbeat of assaults on her rights and unashamed demonization of her identity. "You feel like you can breathe better, and you're not worried that you're gonna be the victim of some terrible attack," she said. Even so, she can't completely stop worrying. Conservative politicians across the world have found trans people a tempting punchbag, including in nearby Argentina. The feminist philosopher Judith Butler has argued that transphobia is a central element of modern fascism, from to Hungary to Brazil to the USA and beyond. "You never know, these days, because transphobia is global," said Isabella. "The question is, is it going to come to Chile? That's always a fear. So I'm always keeping my eyes open."
The Guardian
25 minutes ago
- The Guardian
Jonn Oliver on Trump's ‘big beautiful bill': ‘Death by a thousand cuts'
John Oliver has expressed deep concerns about Donald Trump's 'big beautiful bill' calling it dangerous and potentially deadly for many Americans. On Last Week Tonight, the host joked that it sounded like a 'lumberjack with an OnlyFans page' as it moves through Congress with only the 'narrowest of margins'. It passed by just a single vote and is now being rushed through the next round by Republicans eager to see it pass even though many have admitted that they haven't even read all of it. He said while it was lengthy and its contents unknown by many, the 'broad contours are clear', saying it demanded a 'massive redistribution of wealth' which requires 'cutting critical programs for the most vulnerable'. The bill will lead to 60% of tax cuts going to the top 20% of households and will add trillions to the national debt. One major area affected is healthcare, with estimates suggesting 4.2 million people will become uninsured by the changes. Trump has claimed that Medicaid will be safe, saying 'none of that stuff is gonna be touched' in an interview. Oliver noted that 'following through on the promise not to touch something has never exactly been of one of Trump's strong suits'. He said 'the math just doesn't support those claims', with new work requirements making it harder for many of those who would use it. Nearly two in three people who already have it do work and most of the rest have a disability or they are attending school or caring for family members. The TV host turned Trump loyalist Dr Oz has said that you need to 'prove that you matter' by proving you work. 'So a person only means something if they work?' Oliver said. 'That is not true at all.' He added that people not on Medicaid will be affected too given that this is also a major source of funding for hospitals and studies have projected that there will be 16 million more uninsured people in 2034 than would otherwise be the case. 'It's not like people haven't tried to warn Republicans of the consequences here,' he added. Another key concern is food stamps (Snap) which right now provide assistance to 41 million people. There will be a significant expansion of work requirements, insisted, again, Dr Oz, 'a real piece of shit' who will help oversee a plan that would put 5 million people at risk of losing at least some of their food assistance. Studies show work requirements do not increase work and merely add to the administrative burdens for people who are then deterred by paperwork involved, including time-consuming applications. 'Basically this bill is taking all that bureaucratic bullshit and somehow making it worse,' he said. A program in Georgia has been used as the model, often quoted by Republicans, but there have been significant administration problems, with steep qualifications and technical issues, enough to make you want to 'throw your fucking computer out of the window'. The issues led to it costing $86m with just 6,500 participants. 'If that's what's coming on a national scale then that is fucking terrifying,' he said, saying it was 'death by a thousand cuts' for many. Oliver said Republicans are more alarmed by paperwork and red tape for business but 'this is medicine for the sick and food for the hungry'. He added that 'if it becomes law, we're gonna be looking back on it decades from now' and that 'everyone who votes for this should be held accountable'.
Daily Mail
27 minutes ago
- Daily Mail
How Trump's new searchable 'national citizenship system' could change U.S. elections forever
The Trump administration has quietly assembled a new searchable database of U.S. citizens that is designed to let state election officials cross-check voter registrants. The administration constructed the system in a matter of months. One indication came in a March 25 executive order directing Homeland Security Sec. Kristi Noem to provide access to state officials 'access to appropriate systems for verifying the citizenship or immigration status of individuals registering to vote or who are already registered.' It states that they should gain access without having to pay a fee. The system follows the Department of Governmental Efficiency (DOGE) formerly headed by Elon Musk 's efforts to gain access to Social Security Administration and other agency data. A detailed report on the new system by National Public Radio calls it a 'sea change' in existing policy to provide a roster of U.S. citizens, and a previously 'third rail' policy move that the nation has eschewed in the past. Experts questioned the accuracy of a system assembled so quickly with little public notice, and warn about the impact on voter registration depending on how it is used and maintained. One, University of Virginia School of Law professor Danielle Citron, called the effort to aggregate the massive trove of data a 'hair on fire' moment. The move comes as President Donald Trump has made repeated references to illegal immigrants voting, although detailed looks at the issue have found it to be exceedingly rare. An audit of Georgia's 8.2 million voter roles found 20 noncitizens registered to vote, with 9 actually casting a ballot. A look at Iowa's 2.3 million rolls found 87 times when individuals cast a ballot and then later self-reported they were non-citizens. Trump has long described a deliberate Democratic conspiracy to try to get illegal immigrants to vote, as he did in the ABC presidential debate. 'And a lot of these illegal immigrants coming in, they're trying to get them to vote. They can't even speak English, they don't know even know what country they're in practically, and these people are trying to get them to vote, and that's why they're allowing them to come into our country,' Trump said. It was not immediately clear which states planned to use the new database. Details of the database come after the Supreme Court issued a bombshell ruling on Trump's executive order on birthright citizenship, provoking angry arguments from dueling justices. DOGE's moves to gain access to sensitive data drew litigation, but the Supreme Court in June ruled it could have access to agency data. Trump has repeatedly called the 2020 election rigged despite losing by more than 7 million votes to Joe Biden. He did so again Friday in the Oval Office in response to a softball question when he said: 'That election was rigged and stolen, and we can't allow that to happen.' The new effort expands on the existing Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements to check on the status of legal residents. But election officials who also sometimes used it complained it was unwieldy. A May announcement by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services stated that the system had been updated 'to ensure a single, reliable source for verifying immigration status and U.S. citizenship nationwide. State and local authorities can input Social Security numbers to help verify U.S. citizenship and prevent aliens from voting in American elections. The 1993 National Voter Registration Act, known as the motor voter law, prohibited states from requiring proof of citizenship, amid fears that it would disenfranchise voters who couldn't locate a passport or Social Security card. Instead, voter registration applications allow voters to attest to their citizenship, although states can comb rolls to try to ferret out people who shouldn't be on them. There have since been legislative efforts to try to add such a requirement prior to Trump's order on 'Preserving and Protecting the Integrity of American Elections.'
