Cooper entering N.C. Senate race gives Democrats hope. But to flip the Senate majority they will need lots of prayer.
Democrats still face a brutal uphill climb. Cooper's entry improves their odds in North Carolina, but only marginally. And more broadly, the
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Let's start with the math. Republicans currently hold a 53–47 majority in the Senate. Because Vice President JD Vance can cast tie-breaking votes, Democrats need to net four seats to take control. That's hard enough. But it gets worse: of the 35 seats up for election next year, only nine are considered competitive,
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What does that mean in practical terms? To flip the chamber, Democrats would need to win eight of the nine competitive races. That's an extraordinarily high bar, especially considering the terrain.
Of the five Republican-held seats in play, only one (Maine) is in a state that Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris won in 2024. The others are deep-red territory: Ohio, Iowa, Texas, and Florida. Each went for Trump by over 10 points. The idea that Democrats can mount serious challenges in those states depends on a level of political momentum they simply don't have right now.
And that's just the offense. On defense, Democrats must hold every one of their own vulnerable seats — including open races in
Now add in the unpredictable. A
Which brings us back to North Carolina. Cooper is a
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Cooper's presence ensures Democrats will have a serious contender, but this was always going to be a marquee race. Whoever emerged as the Republican or Democratic nominee was going to be well-known and well-financed. Cooper's candidacy may slightly improve Democratic odds, but this will still be a razor-thin contest decided at the margins.
The bottom line: Cooper's announcement is a good day for Democrats. It adds credibility to their map. It gives them a decent chance in one more state. But anyone suggesting this fundamentally reshapes the battle for the Senate is kidding themselves. The road to a Democratic majority remains steep, and even with Cooper on the ballot, it may well be out of reach.
James Pindell is a Globe political reporter who reports and analyzes American politics, especially in New England.
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