Russia and Ukraine start first peace talks in seven weeks as clock ticks on Trump ultimatum
Opening the meeting, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said he hoped the parties would make progress based on documents they exchanged at their last encounter in June in order to "end this bloody war as soon as possible".
"The ultimate goal here is, of course, a ceasefire that will pave the way for peace," Fidan said.
Ukraine wants the meeting to lay the ground for a summit between presidents Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Vladimir Putin that it sees as the key to any potential breakthrough.
"Ukraine has consistently advocated for a leaders' meeting. We were ready for it yesterday. We are ready today. And we will be ready tomorrow," Ukrainian delegation chief Rustem Umerov wrote on Telegram.
"Such a meeting could unlock real political progress. Russia must demonstrate its readiness."
But the Kremlin played down expectations of any breakthrough in Istanbul.
"Naturally, no one expects an easy road. Naturally, this will be a very difficult conversation. The projects (of the two sides) are diametrically opposed," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
Previous talks on May 16 and June 2 led to the exchange of thousands of prisoners of war and the remains of dead soldiers. But those meetings lasted less than three hours in total and made no breakthrough towards ending the war that started with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Trump has patched up relations with Zelenskiy after a public row with him at the White House in February, and has lately expressed growing frustration with Putin.
Last week he threatened heavy new sanctions on Russia and countries that buy its exports unless a peace deal was reached within 50 days, though reaction on financial markets suggested investors were sceptical that he would follow through.
Three sources close to the Kremlin told Reuters last week that Putin, unfazed by Trump's ultimatum, would keep on fighting in Ukraine until the West engaged on his terms for peace, and that his territorial demands may widen as Russian forces advance.
On Wednesday, Russia said its forces had captured the settlement of Varachyne in Ukraine's Sumy region, where Putin has ordered his troops to create a buffer zone after Ukraine mounted a shock incursion into Russia last year and held onto a chunk of its territory for months. Reuters could not independently confirm the battlefield report.
In recent weeks, Russian forces have launched some of their heaviest air attacks of the war, focusing especially on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv.
Ukraine has hit back with attacks of its own, and last month inflicted serious damage on Russia's nuclear-capable strategic bomber fleet by smuggling drones close to air bases deep inside the country.
Zelenskiy said earlier this week that the agenda for talks was clear: the return of prisoners of war and of children abducted by Russia, and the preparation of a meeting between himself and Putin.
Putin turned down a previous challenge from Zelenskiy to meet him in person and has said he does not see him as a legitimate leader because Ukraine, which is under martial law, did not hold new elections when Zelenskiy's five-year mandate expired last year. Russia also denies abducting children.
The Kremlin said this week it was unrealistic to expect "miracles" from the talks.
At the last meeting, Russia handed Ukraine a memorandum setting out its key demands, including: full withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from four regions of the country that Russia has claimed as its own; limits on the size of Ukraine's military; enhanced rights for Russian-speakers in Ukraine; and acceptance by Kyiv of neutral status, outside NATO or any other alliance.
Ukraine sees those terms as tantamount to surrender, and Zelenskiy described the Russian stance as an ultimatum.
Ukraine wants an immediate ceasefire, reparations, international security guarantees and no restrictions on its military strength.
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Moscow is also developing a new satellite meant to carry a nuclear weapon as an anti-satellite capability. 2. Harden critical infrastructure against cyber attacks Russia has one of the world's most destructive arsenals of cyber weapons, a sophisticated doctrine, and advanced expertise. The 2025 Annual Threat Assessment warned about Russia's repeated success in compromising sensitive targets for intelligence collection. Moscow is likely to already have access to critical infrastructure in the US and Europe. Moscow has a particular strength and practical experience in integrating cyber attacks with military operations in wartime. 3. Establish stronger protocols to guard undersea communications cables Russia's General Staff Main Directorate has a highly secretive deep sea research programme, known as GUGI. Moscow is highly likely to have put this expertise into practice, with several suspected sabotage operations of undersea cables in the Baltic Sea since the war in Ukraine began. A similar risk applies to energy pipelines. In October 2022, the UK Ministry of Defence acknowledged that a Royal Navy frigate was deployed to the North Sea to assist Norwegian forces in protecting gas pipelines, after the rupture of Nord Stream in the Baltic. 4. Bullet-proof against Russian espionage It hardly needs saying that Russia routinely infiltrates spies all across Europe and recruits locals to steal military, political, and economic secrets. But Moscow has also been able to insert intelligence operatives to conduct destabilisation operations, targeting critical infrastructure. Some estimates suggest that such sabotage operations almost quadrupled in number between 2023-24. Multiple arrests have taken place, including in Germany, Poland, and the UK. But the alliance must take a more pro-active approach, neutralising and disrupting Russia's espionage operations before they are able to do damage. 5. Establish advantage in total combat potential Having moved onto a war footing several years prior to the invasion of Ukraine, Russia now produces more ammunition in three months than Europe does in one year. Scaling up production of air defence systems, tanks, drones, and ammunition is imperative for Nato to catch up to Russia and restock its depleted arsenals. Weapons don't shoot themselves, however. The alliance must recruit, train, and equip a fighting force sufficient to change Putin's decision calculus. Moscow has been mobilising overtly and covertly throughout its three and a half year war in Ukraine. And on Tuesday, a bill was submitted to the State Duma introducing year-round conscription for military service. If approved and signed by Putin, the law will come into effect on Jan 1, 2026. In Europe, only a few countries have mandatory military service, and so far most of the others are not considering it. But in a war of attrition, such as the one Russia is fighting in Ukraine, the side that has more manpower is better positioned to win. The good news is that the alliance has time to get its act together to prevent another invasion. It would be tragic if the alliance fails to step up to the plate now, especially given the colossal price Ukraine is paying to defend itself against the Russians. Nato owes it to all those dead Ukrainians and their families to develop a viable counter-strategy to Putin's playbook. Rebekah Koffler is a strategic military intelligence analyst, formerly with the US Defense Intelligence Agency. She is the author of 'Putin's Playbook', Regnery 2021. Her next book 'Trump's Playbook' will be published later this year. Rebekah's podcast Trump's Playbook is running on her channel Censored But Not Silenced and is available on most social media platforms @Rebekah0132.
