What we're hearing about the Phillies' trade deadline plans: Will they take a bigger swing?

New York Times

3 days ago

SAN FRANCISCO — The Phillies have acquired five major-league players over the past two trade deadlines, and three of them were rentals. They were the biggest July targets for Dave Dombrowski. The president of baseball operations added Michael Lorenzen, Carlos Estévez and Austin Hays as temporary boosts. The Phillies explored deals for meaningful players with more club control but weren't willing to meet the price — or offer a compelling enough package to pry them loose.
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This July, they find themselves in a familiar spot. They need bullpen help. Again. They could use another right-handed bat. Again. They have used mid-tier prospects to patch holes in previous deadlines.
But they have taken a different tone this time, according to officials from rival clubs who have spoken to the Phillies as the trade landscape crystallizes.
The Phillies, for now, sound more willing to trade bigger prospect chips for controllable big leaguers, especially a shutdown, late-inning reliever. The Phillies have a top-heavy farm system; major-league sources said initial indications are the Phillies want to shop this July in a more expensive aisle than the rental one. They have the prospects to do it.
Whether that comes to fruition through a larger acquisition remains to be seen. The Phillies talked last winter about being creative and engaged various clubs in trade discussions. But they were unwilling to sacrifice top prospects. They settled for three one-year free-agent contracts with Max Kepler, Jordan Romano and Joe Ross.
Now, Dombrowski is attempting to undo his offseason mistakes. That means sacrificing good prospects for 'win-now' moves.
The Phillies have a specific interest in the American League Central; they began scouting the Minnesota Twins more heavily this week in anticipation of them being sellers, league sources said. Griffin Jax and Jhoan Durán will be prized targets if Minnesota makes them available. They're expected to listen. There is a potential match with the Cleveland Guardians, who boast a deep bullpen headlined by Emmanuel Clase. Teams expect Cleveland to take offers on Clase, who is signed through 2026 with $10 million club options for 2027 and 2028.
Any of those relievers would cost the Phillies multiple top prospects. If the Phillies landed one, it would fill an immediate hole and also provide future bullpen stability. It could, in essence, prevent the Phillies from being in the same spot next July.
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Within the front office, a fascinating debate will ensue. The Phillies know their current roster is aging; it's imperative they backfill with younger players beginning in 2026 if they are to build a sustainable winner. But flags fly forever, and it's impossible to assume they will have as robust a starting rotation in future seasons as they do in 2025. The 'Wheeler Window' lasts through 2027 — and with the collective bargaining agreement expiring the prior December, there is no guarantee there will even be Major League Baseball in 2027.
It might be time to take a bigger swing.
When the Phillies progressed in trade talks with the Chicago White Sox for Garrett Crochet last summer, they were steadfast in deeming Andrew Painter untouchable. They have held firm on that stance this July. But everyone else in the organization, according to league sources, might be available to varying degrees.
That would include Aidan Miller, who has improved at shortstop and become a better base-stealing threat with Double-A Reading in 2025. But he has not hit for average or power. He is still young; Miller just turned 21. If the Phillies are trying to build a competitive prospect package to acquire Clase or one of the Twins relievers, they might have to begin with Miller.
They might be more willing to part with infielder Aroon Escobar, who was promoted to High-A Jersey Shore this week. Rival evaluators are high on Escobar, who hits the ball hard, but are uncertain about his positional future.
Same with 18-year-old catcher Eduardo Tait, who will head to Atlanta this weekend for the Futures Game showcase. Tait is raw behind the plate. He is still at Low-A Clearwater and doesn't turn 19 until August. He may earn a promotion to High A following the All-Star break.
The Phillies are reluctant to move any of their better prospects for rentals; that includes Mick Abel.
It's the time of year when just about everything is on the table; that, according to major-league sources, includes the Phillies dealing from their current outfield. The idea would be to open a spot for Justin Crawford, one of the club's top prospects, who has hit .339 at Triple A while wielding his game-changing speed.
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Whether Crawford is ready to be an everyday player on a contending team remains to be seen. There are indications the Phillies want to see at some point this summer.
That would mean moving either Brandon Marsh or Kepler. Both have underperformed in 2025. They might not have much value on the trade market. Teams have poked around, though, because the state of offense across the sport is dismal.
Marsh, in particular, could interest someone. He has two years of club control after 2025. He's probably a better fit in left field. He has chipped away after a nightmarish start to his season. Marsh is hitting .315/.379/.441 since May 1. The Phillies could use him to secure a better fit for their roster — either a right-handed bat, a swing-and-miss setup man, or a prospect to help backfill whatever the Phillies ship out this month.
But the Phillies would be selling low on Marsh. Kepler, on the other hand, is owed less than $5 million over the remainder of the season. It would be easier to cut ties with him.
Whatever path the Phillies take, their quest is rather simple: They'd love to have one outfielder who can both hit and field his position.
As the Phillies make bids this month, the secondary pieces in a prospect package matter. Rival evaluators see a massive drop from the Phillies' best four or five prospects to the next tier. That could make it tougher for them to make a competitive offer.
A few of those middle-tier prospects have fetched more attention from rival evaluators. One of them, Hendry Mendez, is a 21-year-old outfielder at Double-A Reading who has hit for a high average with excellent plate discipline. Some clubs view Mendez as a good candidate for a swing change to help him lift the ball more.
Alex McFarlane, a 24-year-old righty at High-A Jersey Shore, is in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. He's had ups and downs but throws hard with a feel for spin. He profiles as a future reliever and must be added to a 40-man roster this offseason or he will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft.
Jean Cabrera, who is on the 40-man roster, has displayed improved command over the last six weeks. Cabrera, 23, fits the mold of pitching prospects the Phillies have flipped at previous trade deadlines.
The club's focus, according to sources, is firmly on bullpen additions. There is a greater supply of high-end relievers as opposed to difference-making bats. This could change in the coming weeks, but the bullpen need is overwhelming.
Consider this: Phillies relievers have thrown a higher percentage of pitches in the strike zone than any other bullpen. But they have the 19th highest whiff rate on those in-zone pitches.
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Since May 20, the first day of José Alvarado's suspension, Phillies relievers have the lowest whiff rate in MLB on two-strike pitches.
They need more swing-and-miss stuff. Badly.
There might not be a bigger right field in baseball than Oracle Park, which prompted a natural question this week: Would manager Rob Thomson lift Nick Castellanos for defense with a late lead?
'Probably not,' Thomson said. 'I think he's played pretty well.'
The manager has reversed course from last month when he removed Castellanos for defense in Miami. The two had an encounter that resulted in Castellanos' benching for a day. Every defensive measurement — including the eye test — suggests that Castellanos is a well-below-average defender. Even if someone were to quibble with that assessment, there is no disputing that Castellanos, at best, is the club's fourth-best outfield defender. The optimal defensive lineup has three of his teammates out there.
But, much to the confusion of some Phillies personnel, Thomson will keep Castellanos in games. For now.
'Even if you're going to defend for a guy, it all depends on where his spot is in the lineup, too,' Thomson said. 'Especially in a close game, you still want to keep that bat in. And I don't think the defensive replacement comes into play all that much.'
Thomson applied different logic in Tuesday's game against the Giants; he removed Otto Kemp in the eighth inning with a lead so Kepler could play left field. Kemp, who made a diving catch earlier in the game, is inexperienced in the outfield.
Why do it in left field and not right field?
'Just because Kemp doesn't have that many reps, that's all,' Thomson said. 'I mean, I'm comfortable with him. But Kepler's a little better outfielder at this point.'
The Phillies have interest in Pirates reliever David Bednar, as reported by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. But Bednar is merely one name on their list as the deadline inches closer.
In the meantime, the Phillies will buy as many lottery tickets as they can. The latest: They signed veteran righty Phil Bickford to a minor-league contract.
Bickford, who turns 30 on Thursday, had asked the Chicago Cubs for his release. He was pitching well at Triple-A Iowa with a 2.60 ERA in 27 2/3 innings. He struck out 36 and walked six. Bickford's fastball averaged 92.2 mph in the minors this season, down from his 93.7 mph average two years ago in the majors.
(Top photo of Dave Dombrowski: David Zalubowski / Associated Press)