2025 MLB Home Run Derby participants ranked by most likely to win
The 2025 Home Run Derby is set to take place Monday at 8 p.m. ET at Truist Park in Atlanta, and with no past champions in the field of eight, we're guaranteed to have a new winner for the fourth year in a row.
In fact, only one of the participants has even been in a past derby, and that's Matt Olson of the home-town Braves, was last participated in 2021. So, there's perhaps even more unpredictability than usual with this field, which should make for an exciting finish.
Here's a ranking of the field along with odds on a winner from BetMGM.
8. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+1400)
If Chisholm gets in a groove, he can be dangerous. It's just hard to project a strong finish in a field of superior power hitters.
7. Junior Caminero (+1000)
If nothing else, Caminero will be a ton of fun to watch in this competition. I'm just not sure the 22-year-old's swing is ready to go the distance.
6. Matt Olson (+550)
There have been other years I would have picked Olson to win the derby. This just doesn't feel like one of those years as Olson steps in as a replacement for injured teammate Ronald Acuña Jr.
5. Byron Buxton (+900)
With the second-longest home run hit in 2025, I'm confident saying Buxton will hit a ball to the stars in this competition. But will he get a hold of enough balls to keep up?
BYRON BUXTON HOMERS TO COMPLETE THE CYCLEON HIS BOBBLEHEAD DAY 🤯 pic.twitter.com/fCbjgzRUzd
4. Brent Rooker (+900)
Rooker consistently hits the ball hard. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him walk away a winner as he trends towards a third-straight 30-homer season.
3. James Wood (+475)
With his opposite-field power, Wood easily has the lowest pull percentage of any player in this field. I have questions about how well that will bode in this kind of competition.
2. Oneil Cruz (+310)
Cruz has the best barrel and hard hit percentages of any player in the field, and leads the majors in average exit velocity. In a contest where he only has to worry about pitches up the middle, he's the betting favorite to win.
115.6 MPH458 FEETYou think Oneil Cruz is excited for the #HRDerby?! pic.twitter.com/9AWDyL3iBH
1. Cal Raleigh (+360)
Raleigh has five hits this month, and they've all been home runs. In other words, if he makes contact, there's a good chance the ball is leaving the park, which bodes well for MLB's home-run leader (38) in a derby.
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