Canadiens expectations, Logan Mailloux as a trade chip, Stanley Cup checklist: Mailbag

New York Times

2 days ago

We had Part 1 of the Montreal Canadiens mailbag earlier this week, and here is Part 2, featuring some of the questions we didn't get to. Of course, there were 226 comments on the question submission form, so we are not getting to the vast majority of them. But this is a democratic process, and we take the questions that got the most likes on the form.
This is the best of the rest.
Fans' expectations for the team are much higher for this season than for last season. The goal last season was to be 'in the mix' last year and make the playoffs this year. Now since they made the playoffs, certain fans seem to be expecting the team to compete to win rounds this year. Have HuGo changed their goals for the Habs, or are they still just looking at making the playoffs this year as the goal? Do you expect them to start to put messaging out there to reduce expectations for fans for this season?
I think missing the playoffs would be a normal part of the rebuild but that fans might react as if it's a disaster. – Nick L.
Missing the playoffs would not necessarily be a normal part of the rebuild, Nick. Most rebuilding teams, once they reach the playoffs, tend to grow on that achievement. But in the Canadiens' case, it could easily be argued they reached the playoffs a bit sooner than expected by management, so within that context, missing them next season would not – or at least should not – be seen as a setback.
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The Canadiens will be consistently competitive when – and only when – their young core has reached its peak. And right now, that young core is nowhere near its peak. Nick Suzuki is definitely approaching it, and it will be interesting to see if he can build on his 89-point season, if that is the new normal, or if it turns out to be an outlier. I could see Suzuki building on it, but I think it's most likely to be the new normal for him.
We have not yet seen Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovský play to their ceiling, and there is no way we have seen the best out of Lane Hutson, Ivan Demidov and David Reinbacher, the latter two still awaiting their NHL rookie seasons. Jacob Fowler is years away from being a factor in Montreal. Same for Michael Hage. There are so many complementary pieces in the Canadiens prospect pool that will emerge to fill important roles on the big club, from Logan Mailloux to Oliver Kapanen to Owen Beck and others.
In other words, the Canadiens remain relatively far from their peak potential, the time when the young core is mature enough to truly drive the bus. In the interim, the Canadiens undoubtedly want to remain competitive. But the real window they are managing is the one where Demidov is, say, 23 and Suzuki is 29, with all those other core elements falling in between that age range. That is still three or four years away.
This is not to say the Canadiens will miss the playoffs next season. But it is to say that Canadiens management's eyes remain transfixed on that contention window that remains an abstract point on the horizon right now. They have set a good path to get there, but they are not yet close to arriving.
How high (or low) is the front office on Logan Mailloux?
In the past few weeks, a lot of people include him in potential trades and therefore seem to be ready to let him go. While I understand that he could be the asset that ultimately gets us a significant player like a 2C/RHD, he still is a great RHD prospect who's only 22 and is going through normal growing pains (decision making at the pro level) if you can even call it that. I get that HuGo didn't draft him, so maybe they would be less hesitant to trade him, but I still wonder about how much they value him (or what return value would be enough for them to trade him). I know that they can't keep everyone forever and that his value is really high right now with the actual market, but I also think we shouldn't trade this kind of asset just because he hasn't made the team yet.
Big, mobile RHD with a cannon like his don't really grow on trees. – Olivier G.
What are your thoughts on one of David Reinbacher or Logan Mailloux breaking camp with the Habs? I noticed you had a RHD as your ideal UFA target, so was wondering if that meant you thought neither were quite ready for the show? – Chris N.
No, they don't grow on trees. But that's exactly why Mailloux would have value on the trade market. The trade late Wednesday night — the Buffalo Sabres sent JJ Peterka to the Utah Mammoth for right-shot defenceman Michael Kesselring and forward Josh Doan — is one example of how much value a good right-shot defenceman can have. Kesselring was a total find for Utah, acquired from the Edmonton Oilers in a deadline deal for Nick Bjugstad and Cam Dineen, and they've now converted him into a legitimate top-six forward with upside.
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The difference between Kesselring and Mailloux, however, is NHL experience. Kesselring wasn't given time to accrue it in Edmonton, but once he did with Arizona/Utah, he became an extremely valuable trade chip. Teams love big, mobile right-shot defencemen with a cannon, but they want to know they can actually play in the NHL before giving up difference-making assets for them.
So, the long play here would be for the Canadiens to allow Mailloux to accrue some of that NHL experience before monetizing that heightened trade value. Until that happens, they might wind up being the Oilers in this Kesselring scenario, as opposed to the Mammoth, who now have a legitimate top-six forward signed through his prime thanks to demonstrating how valuable Kesselring can be at the NHL level.
This, however, goes back to that expectation of making the playoffs next season, because to allow Mailloux to get that NHL experience and to allow Reinbacher to take the necessary steps to reach his potential, the Canadiens would need to have both of them on the NHL roster next season. And I'm not sure how willing they would be to do that.
How well do you think the Canadiens have managed to fill out the 'Cup checklist' (by Dom Luszczyszyn) considering where the current core and blue-chip prospects could find themselves a few years down the line?
Suzuki / Demidov / Hutson should provide the elite production with Cole, Slaf, Guhle and Reinbacher spearheading an exciting support group. – Veeti L.
For reference of Dom's Stanley Cup checklist, here is the latest version, and it is an interesting exercise to go through for the Canadiens. It demonstrates just how much remains unknown on the ultimate journey.
The checklist elements we are looking to identify for the Canadiens are a franchise forward, a star forward, franchise offensive and defensive defencemen, shutdown offensive and defensive forwards, a star goalie, a support core and a depth core.
There's a lot of projection here, but here's how I would project the eventual Cup checklist for Montreal.
(Orange denotes support core. Blue denotes depth core.)
There are a lot of Canadiens prospects not mentioned here, and there are a lot of slashes. That means a lot of question marks remain for filling this out.
But what's important for the Canadiens is they have legitimate candidates to fill out each of these roles, and if a certain candidate doesn't quite fit the specific role needed, he becomes a trade chip to try and better fill that role.
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Some eyebrows might be raised at how Suzuki is slotted here, but to me, finding a shutdown forward who can provide offence is rarer than finding a star forward, and Suzuki has the potential to be among the best in this category.
Do you think a Mike Matheson for Rasmus Andersson trade could work conceptually (perhaps with some sweeteners from Montreal)? Similar contract status (with Andersson seeming unlikely to stay in Calgary beyond this year). Montreal has an overload of LHD and Calgary has the opposite problem. Andersson would also fit the profile of the type of defenceman Montreal is looking for. – Jordan S.
Conceptually, this could work. It would highly depend on how the Calgary Flames view Matheson and what else is available on the market for them, with Andersson being one of the most prized trade targets in the league. But it honestly could make a lot of sense from both sides of it. There would need to be some sweeteners from Montreal, but they have tons of sweeteners to offer, so that wouldn't be an issue.
(Photo of Logan Mailloux: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)