MLB Roundtable: Are there any good teams in the AL West? Are the Giants legit?

Fox Sports

01-05-2025

The National League is the center of the baseball universe currently, with just four games separating the 21-10 Los Angeles Dodgers and the 17-14 Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL West.
The American League? Not so much.
In this week's roundtable, FOX Sports' MLB reporters Rowan Kavner and Deesha Thosar look at the state of the AL and touch on some other topics across the league.
The Angels have fallen off after a strong start. Three of their five division mates have negative run differentials, including the second-place Rangers. The Mariners sit in first as of this writing, and it's a tenuous lead: does the AL West have a genuinely good team in it in 2025?
Kavner: We might end up with only two or three genuinely good teams in the entire American League. I'm not convinced the AL West will have a 90-win team, but I think it will end up with three teams that finish with somewhere between 84-89 wins. I thought before the season the Rangers were the best team in the division, and I'll reluctantly stick with that because I still just can't fathom that the offense will be this bad all season, but it's a real problem right now. They've now lost four straight series, including two to the Athletics. I don't think the Mariners will maintain the offensive level they've been playing at, so hopefully George Kirby comes back soon and the Logan Gilbert injury doesn't keep him out long term. The Astros are interesting, mostly because of their pitching, but the lineup no longer instills fear the way it did with Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman. I think the Mariners, Rangers and Astros will all still be fighting for the division title come the final week of the season.
Thosar: Since 2017, the Astros have won the AL West in seven out of eight years. That level of total domination had a sense of inevitability to it, so it's actually very refreshing that the division is wide open at the moment — even if that means we're now discussing if any of those teams are any good. Maybe, just maybe, this is finally the year the Mariners will capitalize on the opportunity. So far, Seattle has the second-highest wRC+ (124) in baseball, signifying that their bats are 24 points better than league average. They've hit the third-most home runs (44) in the big leagues, trailing the Yankees and Dodgers. The injury bug is going around Seattle, which won't help matters. But something about this 2025 team tells me it's competitive enough to overcome those challenges and play, well, genuinely good baseball.
Hunter Brown's scoreless streak ended in his most recent start after 28 innings, but his season numbers are still eye-popping. Has he made the leap to ace in your eyes, or is more of this level of performance needed?
Kavner: It's wild to think that just last April he was fighting to hold onto a spot in the rotation, but in my opinion he has reached ace level. He's been a different guy since adding the two-seamer last May, giving him a weapon that can get in on the hands of right-handed hitters. To be clear, the pitch is not better than his four-seamer, but the soft contact it induces has helped dramatically lower his overall hard-hit rate. Since the start of June 2024 until now, Brown has a 2.05 ERA. The next closest qualified American League starting pitcher is Tarik Skubal at 2.54. This year, Brown is producing career bests in strikeout rate and walk rate to go with his miniscule 1.22 ERA. His four-seamer has produced just three hits and 18 strikeouts. I have full confidence that what we're seeing is real and can stick.
Thosar: I definitely need to see Brown sustain this level of excellence over a full season (or two) before we leap into ace status. But it's encouraging that he's following in the footsteps of a former Houston ace. Brown's 1.22 ERA is the lowest number recorded by an Astros pitcher through his first six starts of a season since… Dallas Keuchel in 2015 (0.80 ERA). There's no doubt that Brown is blossoming into one of the sport's best pitchers, and the Astros should be doing everything they can to sign him to a contract extension before he becomes unaffordable — by Houston owner Jim Crane's standards, that is.
We're nearly a month into the season, and there have already been quite a few rookies thriving right out of the gate. Who from 2025's rookie crop has impressed you the most so far?
Kavner: While the best teams are in the National League, all of the top rookie standouts are in the American League, from Kristian Campbell to Jackson Jobe to Kameron Misner to Jacob Wilson, who looks like the A's version of Luis Arraez. But the answer has to be Campbell. He was the most recent member of Boston's "Big Three" prospects to get drafted but the first to debut. As questions swirled about whether or not Alex Bregman would bump over to second base in Boston, the Red Sox felt confident enough about Campbell to make him the everyday answer at the spot. Since then, he has demonstrated why. Among rookies with at least 50 plate appearances, Campbell ranks first in doubles, walks, runs and on-base percentage and second in hits, slugging and OPS. It's an incredible start for a 22-year-old who was playing at Georgia Tech just two years ago.
Thosar: I've had Campbell on my radar ever since the Red Sox made the not-so-easy decision to make him their primary second baseman right out of camp, rather than have Alex Bregman slide over to second and let Rafael Devers keep his job at the hot corner. Campbell has rewarded Boston's trust by recording the highest fWAR (1.3), OPS (.935) and walks drawn (19) among all AL rookies. Plus, Fenway Park is a pressure cooker, so he's naturally hitting better on the road, but Campbell is drawing more walks in Boston to offset that home/road split. After the Red Sox demanded so much of the 22-year-old in a major, media-frenzied jump to the big leagues, it sure seems like there's not much more Campbell could've done to put up a better start.
The Rockies are 4-24 entering play on Tuesday night, already 20 games under .500, which puts them on pace for an unfathomable 139 losses. It's not like they were expected to challenge for the NL West crown or anything, but this season has been something else. Where do they even go from here? How does this get fixed?
Kavner: It doesn't for a while. Finding some direction would be a start. At least we know the White Sox and Marlins are actively trying to rebuild. The Rockies are just sort of…stuck there, marching to the beat of their own drum. They hold onto their guys only to languish every year as the cellar dwellers of the West. What is there to build around? They've finished fourth or fifth every year since making the playoffs in 2018. That trend will continue this season. Maybe recent first-round picks Chase Dollander and Charlie Condon can turn into something. But neither the offense nor the pitching staff is close to actually competing, and yet the Rockies regularly spend on the margins while passing on opportunities to trade the veteran players who could actually bring back impact prospects. This team isn't close to being competitive, and yet general manager Bill Schmidt has been there since the end of 2021 and manager Bud Black has been there since 2017. At the very least, there should probably be another shake-up beyond making Clint Hurdle the hitting coach.
Thosar: Well, the Rockies don't lose that many games without everything about their play being mediocre. As is the case with any failing organization, it starts at the top. And at the top, the Rockies are content with mediocrity. Baseball moves much faster now than it used to — whether that's due to an abundance of information on opposing players, or a major advancement in technology — and the Rockies have not bothered to get up to speed. Their analytics department is nonexistent. From their baseball operations to the high-altitude ballpark itself, the Colorado Rockies are just not an appealing place to spend a career. Even putting finances aside, baseball's best players want nothing to do with playing for the Rockies. It starts at the top, and ownership must start spending on critical resources (like an actual analytics department, to start) to even attempt to catch up with the rest of the league.
The Giants were outscored in each of the last two years and finished in fourth in the NL West both times, but now they're right in the mix at the top, with the best run differential in the division. And all of this without big free agent acquisition Willy Adames hitting like the player they hoped they had signed. Are you a believer or a disbeliever in this early-season turnaround?
Kavner: They're definitely better than I expected, and I think what they've done is legit. I'm a believer in Jung Hoo Lee, Logan Webb, and the Giants' bullpen, and there's something to teams who always seem to find a way to win in tight situations, as the Giants (7-3 in one-run games, 2-0 in extra innings) have. And yet, I still think this will end up the fourth-best team in the most formidable division in baseball. I don't think this offense has the star power to match the offenses of the Dodgers, Padres or Diamondbacks, and the rotation feels reliant on Webb. So, if that's disbelieving, then I guess I lean that way.
Thosar: Even though the Giants' start to the season has been better than most expected back in the offseason, I'm still not sold that they'll be able to sustain this higher level of performance from the supporting cast. Already, they're starting to come back down to earth, going 5-5 in their last 10 games. As an offense, their .685 OPS as of this writing is ranked 20th in the big leagues (.708 OPS is league average so far this season). As a pitching staff, the numbers are slightly more encouraging, but it's the bullpen that's carrying the load, whereas Giants starters are also ranked 20th in ERA. They're just not playing like a complete team yet for me to buy into the possibility that their early-season performance is the real deal.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar .
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner .
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