Fantasy bullpen report featuring rising relievers Ronny Henriquez, Bryan Abreu and more

New York Times

2 days ago

With the trade deadline looming at the end of the month, it's dealmaking season for teams in contention, while those on the postseason bubble will use the next three weeks to determine their course of action. Relievers represent a potentially robust market, contingent upon who becomes available. I will update the trade deadline notes at the All-Star break.
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Although there has not been any indication of a role change, the closers for San Diego and San Francisco should be monitored closely through next weekend. After a strong start, Robert Suarez has struggled with his change-up and allowed at least a run in five of eight appearances since June 14. Here is a comparison of his first 18 games versus his past 20:
For a visual on the regression that includes his change-up results, here are his splits by pitch for the same timeframe:
He has tried incorporating more sinkers, but as shown, it's reliant on contact. He has an opt-out clause at the end of the season, but he must improve if he hopes to cash in as a free agent. If these trends continue, he may not close games in the second half of the season.
Camilo Doval did well as a set-up reliever at the beginning of the season, then was named the closer before his save on May 30. Like Suarez, he has produced glaring splits when comparing his first 25 games to his past 14 games:
Doval has struggled with traffic on the bases since becoming the closer and has given up multiple runs in three of his previous four outings through July 2. His struggles are encapsulated in his rolling game chart:
Last, but not least, fantasy managers were excited about Orion Kerkering potentially becoming the primary save option for Philadelphia, but this has not transpired. Since the start of June:
With this in mind, our leverage pathways have been updated. Here are our high-leverage pathway identifiers. Each team will receive one of the following labels:
Access The Athletic's guide for abbreviations used in fantasy baseball.
Aroldis Chapman (BOS): This may be misleading since his recent hot stretch may be more valuable for the Red Sox than fantasy managers, but Chapman has found the 'fountain of youth,' hitting triple digits on the radar and racking up strikeouts. Since June 1, he has allowed one unearned run while converting all seven save opportunities, posting a minuscule 0.33 WHIP with 20 strikeouts against two walks (45 K-BB%) through 12 innings. Chapman is a pending free agent at the end of the season, and he could be worth something for a team with eyes in 2026 if Boston retools at the deadline. If Chapman is traded, Jordan Hicks could get a look at the closer role from August through the end of the season.
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Bryan Abreu (HOU): He extended his scoreless streak to seven games on July 1 and has posted multiple strikeouts in his past three and six of seven since June 19. Since the beginning of June, he ranks first among all relievers in strikeouts (29) and strikeout percentage (51.2%).
Braydon Fisher (TOR): For those in SOLDS leagues, the rookie has secured two holds in his past 6.2 innings with 10 strikeouts versus two walks (33.3 K-BB percentage) while posting a 0.60 WHIP and a 14.4 swinging strike percentage. There are pathways for Fisher to receive a larger leverage share in the second half.
Ronny Henriquez (MIA): He's been here before, but has converted a save in his past two appearances and hasn't allowed a run in eight of nine since June 14, posting a 1.03 WHIP with 13 strikeouts against two walks (33.3 SwStr%) across 8.2 innings. He can be a valuable asset for fantasy managers if he retains the primary save share.
Randy Rodríguez (SF): If a change occurs with the Giants, their most valuable reliever this year should get a chance at saves. Through 37 appearances, Rodríguez has posted a 0.77 WHIP with a 32.1 K-BB percentage and a 15% swinging strike rate. His underlying data shows an enticing baseline for his ERA with a 1.81 SIERA and a 2.22 xERA.
*Multi-inning or bridge relievers who can vulture wins and help protect ratios.
Statistical Credits: Fangraphs.com, Baseball-Reference.com, BaseballSavant.com and BrooksBaseball.net. Check out my work at Reliever Recon and Closer Monkey for daily updates.
(Photo of Bryan Abreu: Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)