Race against extinction: Predation, noise pollution the next big threats to African penguins

Daily Maverick

11-06-2025

The African penguin could become extinct in 10 years but environmental groups are trying everything they can to save them.
The African penguins we know and love may not be around for much longer. Organisations like BirdLife South Africa, the Southern African Foundation for the Conservation of Coastal Birds (Sanccob), WWF and Cape Nature, however, are doing everything they can to arrest the decline.
Their recent World Environment Day celebration at Stony Point Nature Reserve in Kogelberg — the site of one of the Cape's key penguin colonies — highlighted the continued efforts needed to prevent the extinction of the critically endangered African penguin and the benefits African penguins bring to local communities.
African penguins are set to become extinct in 10 years, according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature. In 2024, the number of breeding pairs at Stony Point Nature Reserve dropped by half — leaving only 676 pairs.
While the decrease in breeding pairs cannot necessarily be explained by death, Craig Smith, a senior marine specialist at the WWF, said: 'Penguins are an indicator species.'
Penguins' decision not to breed — or to abandon their eggs — means we should have 'grave concern' for ecosystem health.
Earlier this year, a landmark settlement agreement between conservation NGOs and the commercial fishing industry created 'no fishing zones' around five key African penguin colonies, including Stony Point, in an effort to protect penguins' food sources.
Thus far, food resource competition between penguins and small pelagic fisheries for anchovies and sardines has been the greatest threat to African penguins. But even with the creation of no-fishing zones, the struggle is not over.
According to Smith, the West Coast sardine stock is depleted. Anchovies are at their lowest on record. And it's hard to get these species to rebound. A Namibian small pelagic fishery with sardine and anchovy paused its operations to allow the species to recover, Smith said. But seven years had passed and the species had not recovered.
If the prey conditions of these key small fish can improve, as long as commercial fisheries maintain reasonable exploitation rates, then it might be enough to mitigate resource competition, according to Alistair MacInnes, the Seabird Conservation Programme Manager at Birdlife SA.
But even then, two key threats to penguins remain: noise pollution and predation.
Noise pollution
'Since ship-to-ship bunkering… started in 2016, the closest (penguin) colony, St Croix, has suffered a dramatic decline. They've lost 85 to 90% of their population,' said Nicky Stander, the head of conservation at Sanccob.
Ship-to-ship bunkering, also known as ship-to-ship fuel banking, is the process of transfer of petrol from one ship to another while at sea. It is a highly risky activity that can result in oil spills.
This practice results in an enormous amount of noise because of the increased vessel traffic required for this practice, which can have a significant impact on penguin breeding.
Currently, ship-to-ship bunkering is allowed at Agoa Bay.
Predation
Furthermore, land-based penguin colonies like those at Stony Point and Simon's Town face an added challenge, with threats from inland and from the ocean. Penguins are prey to sharks, seals, mongoose, and even wild dogs.
'If you remove one predator, it can simply get replaced by another,' said Alana Duffell-Canham from CapeNature on the difficulty of contending with predation as a threat. Further, conservationists must consider how 'predators are also important for maintaining ecosystem balances'.
Even so, CapeNature had started to install camera traps and was looking for more funding to implement more predation monitoring at Stony Point, Duffell-Canham said.
'We are throwing everything we can at the species,' Sanccob's Stander said. This included blood transfusions, fracture repairs, and chick rescuing programmes. 'Because their status is so critical, we have to try everything possible to save each individual.'
Following the court outcome, conservation groups will continue monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of their efforts. Alistar MacInnes from Birdlife SA emphasized the need for every location to collect the same data.
There would be formal evaluations — one in six years, and another in 10 years. The six-year evaluation was associated with when most young birds would breed for the first time since the first year of fishing closure. The 10-year evaluation was associated with the previously predicted extinction date for African penguins. If researchers saw improved foraging efficiency by that time, it would indicate a positive turn for the survival of African penguins.
Change came slowly and 'the data needed for advocacy and policy change can only come in six years, given the natural cycle of penguins', said McInnes.
Penguin conservation efforts had also created opportunities for young people in the nearby Mooiuitsig community. Young people served as WWF's Marine and Coastal Community Monitors, recording data, checking for pollution, and collecting and recording plastic waste.
In the end, Smith from WWF asked: 'Penguins are a charismatic species. If we can't protect this species, then what can we protect?' DM