Climate's out — but chaos is in — as a clean energy driver

Axios

26-06-2025

Global upheavals — from supply chain woes to wars — may increasingly spur countries to replace some fossil-fuel imports with homegrown electrons, a new report finds.
Why it matters: "2024 may well become seen as a beginning of a paradigm shift," the latest Statistical Review of World Energy finds.
The energy transition is becoming "increasingly associated with a need to deliver energy security through energy independence to protect countries from the types of shocks and uncertainty that such events bring."
The intrigue: It goes through 2024, but the idea is consistent with an emerging — if contrarian — school of thought about the Trump 2.0 era.
While President Trump isn't interested in global warming and renewables, his foreign and trade policies could make him an accidental climate hawk, the thinking goes.
Bloomberg columnist Liam Denning had a recent piece: "Trump Is Cementing the Green Energy Transition He Loathes."
The big picture: "Investment in renewables in particular is increasingly being seen as a cornerstone of energy security, enabling countries to disconnect their energy systems from global fuel markets and geopolitical tensions," the World Energy report says.
It cites Russia's war on Ukraine, Mideast tensions, COVID, extreme weather and more.
That take is part of the huge annual data review from The Energy Institute, Kearney and KPMG.
The report tells a wider story about what the global renewables surge is and isn't achieving.
Solar and wind together grew nine times faster than fossil fuels, rising 18% last year.
But the whole energy pie is still growing too, including fossil fuels, so global energy-related CO2 emissions ticked up 1% to set another record.
As fast as renewables are rising, global energy thirst is still growing even more, notes the annual report that for decades was produced by BP until 2023.
Zoom in: Low-carbon energy — renewables, nuclear and more — is avoiding lots of CO2 emissions that would otherwise occur.
But it's still an addition — not a transition that's lowering total emissions yet.
"This pattern, marked by simultaneous growth in clean and conventional energy, illustrates the structural, economic, and geopolitical barriers to achieving a truly coordinated global energy transition," a summary states.
Reality check: Displacement of imported fossil fuels with renewable power is concentrated in select markets and a "largely untapped opportunity" elsewhere.
Major energy importers — including Japan and South Korea — have made much less progress, it finds.
And overall global demand for coal, oil and gas is still rising.
Friction point: Trump's pullback from traditional alliances, trade wars, and use of fossil fuels as trade chips will help push countries toward domestic electricity sources, Denning writes.
And don't forget veteran Carlyle analyst Jeff Currie's paper declaring the "New Joule Order."
It similarly argues that risk and trade concerns — not climate policy — are driving countries to seek domestic sources instead of global commodities.
My thought bubble: A related trend is low-carbon sectors like renewables and hydrogen adapting their domestic messaging to the Trump era.
You hear much less about climate and much more about how they can help the U.S. become "energy dominant."
For instance, check out the American Clean Power Association's statement on the Senate's version of the budget reconciliation bill.
The bottom line: Sure, there's a case for Trump 2.0 — and the wider geopolitical landscape — creating momentum abroad for renewables and nuclear on security grounds.