MLB AL Comeback Player of the Year Predictions: Odds, expert picks, including Jacob deGrom and Byron Buxton
deGrom is in the drivers seat with a 7-2 record 2.24 ERA, and 87 strikeouts to 18 walks over 15 starts. His only metrics that sit around league average, per baseball savant, are the ground ball rate and exit velocity, everything else is considered elite. He's been downright dominant, but will he hold up is the question?
deGrom baseball savant metrics as of June 25, 2025
After deGrom's next outing, the 37-year-old will have pitched his most games in a single season since 2019. Only four times in his career has he cracked the 30 start mark and 2019 was the last time that happened.
Advertisement
It's hard to trust that stat, but for most of the players on this list — their bodies betraying them once or twice is the reason why they are in this category as I'd like to say.
One player, that seems to be always injured, but is coming off his second-highest year of games played is Minnesota's Byron Buxton (+430).
That's who I think is the best bet in this field to take down deGrom, not the Tigers' duo of Spencer Torkelson (+900) or Javier Baez (+1000), and certainly not the Angels' Mike Trout (+9000) who I leaned heavily as the frontrunner for this award in the first month of this season.
Last year, Buxton dealt with right knee inflammation in May and right hip inflammation later in the year, yet he still played 102 games, which ranks only behind 140 played in 2017. So the start to this season has been a terrific sign for Buxton, much like deGrom.
Advertisement
Let's travel back in time some more. Buxton set a career-high 28 homers over 92 games in 2022 and appears ready to shatter that this year with 17 dingers through 62 games, which is one less homer through 40 fewer games from last season — in another words, the man is cooking the baseball this season.
Not to mention, he's batting .280, has 47 RBIs with a 2.8 WAR and having his best month of the season in June (.313 BA, 7 HR, 17 RBI). It's hard to ignore Buxton's power, but we also can't ignore the fact that he's been one of the most efficient baserunners with 13 stolen bags to 0 caught stealing, elite batting run value and one of the best hard-hit percentages in baseball.
While Buxton has a habit of chasing and striking out too much (73 Ks to 23 BB), that may be one of the only major negatives to his game so far. He has 46 runs scored and 69 is his career-high, plus he's only gone over 100 hits once in his career (currently at 66 hits in 62 games). He's taking his swings and not worrying about the misses, which speaks to his confidence this season.
Byron Buxton baseball savant hitting chart as of June 25, 2025
There is a lot to like about Buxton at the +430 price and while I see and hear why deGrom should and could win, I will ride with the value on Buxton as he is set to have a career-year as a hitter and could go toe-to-toe at the end of the season versus deGrom for this award.
Advertisement
Pick: Byron Buxton to win AL Comeback Player of the Year (1u)
Vaughn Dalzell's MLB Futures Card
2 units: Aaron Judge to lead MLB in home runs (+130)
2 units: Jacob Misiorowski to win NL Rookie of the Year (-110)
1 unit: Shohei Ohtani to win NL MVP (-110)
1 unit: Bobby Witt to win AL MVP (+450)
1 unit: Elly De La Cruz to win NL MVP (+2000)
1 unit: Garrett Crochet to win AL CY Young (+450)
1 unit: Paul Skenes to win NL CY Young (+300)
1 unit: Byron Buxton to win AL Comeback Player of the Year (+430)
0.5 unit: Dodgers to win 117-plus games (+650)
0.5 unit: Paul Skenes to lead MLB in wins (+1400)
0.5 unit: Garrett Crochet to lead MLB in wins (+2200)
Advertisement
0.5 unit: Juan Soto to lead the MLB in homers (+2800)
0.5 unit: Yordan Alvarez to lead the MLB in homers (+2000)
0.5 unit: Roman Anthony to win. AL Rookie of the Year (+1200)
0.5 unit: Jacob Misiorowski to win NL Rookie of the Year (+1100)
0.25 unit: Aaron Judge to bat .400 by the All-Star break (+800)
0.25 unit: Aaron Judge to bat .400 for the season (+5500)
0.25 unit: Oneil Cruz to lead MLB in stolen bases (+15000)
Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
11 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Giants catcher Patrick Bailey's stats show he's the best defender in all of MLB
Aside from his recent walk-off inside-the-park home run, Patrick Bailey doesn't always deliver with his bat for the San Francisco Giants. But he more than makes up for it when he puts on his catching gear. Advertisement So far this season, Bailey has a case as the best defensive player in all of Major League Baseball. Not just catcher, mind you, but any position. Catcher defense can still be a bit tough to evaluate. How much value do you put statistically on framing and blocking and throwing relative to the more overlapping skills at the rest of the positions in the field? But the analysis on catcher contributions has gotten better in recent years, so it's fair to take those statistics from Fangraphs as legitimate. MORE: Cal Raleigh puts up stats never before seen in MLB history Bailey is on top of that list right ahead of Blue Jays catcher Alejandro Kirk before the next two players on the defensive leaderboard there are shortstops Nick Allen and Bobby Witt Jr. Advertisement His value behind the plate far outweighs any struggles Bailey might have at the plate. And there are few things more important on a baseball diamond than a truly high-end defensive catcher. MORE MLB NEWS:
Yahoo
12 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Will Lionel Messi Play Tonight For Inter Miami Vs Nashville?
Will Lionel Messi Play Tonight For Inter Miami Vs Nashville? originally appeared on Athlon Sports. Lionel Messi Set to Start as Inter Miami Faces Nashville SC Lionel Messi has been at the heart of Inter Miami's recent run of form, scoring in four consecutive matches and leading Major League Soccer in goal contributions. As Miami prepares to take on Nashville SC tonight at Chase Stadium, the biggest question was whether their star forward would be fit to play — and all signs now point to a resounding yes. Advertisement Messi was initially listed as doubtful after Inter Miami's Club World Cup loss to Paris Saint-Germain, but following a few days of rest, he made a strong return to MLS action. In the comeback win against CF Montréal, Messi scored twice. He followed that up with another two-goal performance against the New England Revolution — both goals coming in the first half. Now, with momentum on their side, Inter Miami is not only preparing for tonight's game but also reportedly working on an offer for Messi's Argentina teammate, Rodrigo De Paul, currently at Atlético Madrid. The potential signing would further solidify Miami's ambitions to build a dominant squad around their captain. Heading into the matchup against Nashville SC, Messi is fully fit and expected to start. Based on his recent performances, he's likely to make an impact early — with a goal or assist in the first 25 minutes not out of the question. Kickoff is set for tonight in Nashville, Tennessee, and with Messi on the pitch, Miami will once again be the team to watch. Advertisement Lionel Messi's updated stats for the 2025 MLS regular season Lionel Messi is having one of the best seasons with Inter Miami since it joined the club two years ago on a free transfer. According to Footystats, Messi averages one goal every 4.6 shots. Here are more stats from Lionel Messi in the 2025 MLS season. Appearances : 15 (14 starts, 1 as a substitute) Goals : 14 Assists : 8 Shots : 75 total, with roughly 65% on target Goals + assists (G+A) : 22 Expected Assists (xA) : Approximately 0.43 per 90 minutes Shots per 90 : Around 3.7 Goal conversion rate: About one goal every 4.6 shots This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jul 12, 2025, where it first appeared.
Yahoo
12 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Steelers' T.J. Watt trade appears closer after this update
T.J. Watt is the face of the Pittsburgh Steelers. But the chances of him getting traded appear to be rising a bit based on the latest report. Mark Kaboly, who is the Steelers correspondent for The Pat McAfee Show, has said Pittsburgh is calling around the league to assess Watt's trade value. Advertisement Kaboly said it is just Pittsburgh doing "due diligence." In many ways, that's a fair thing for the Steelers to be doing. It's good to understand the value of players on your team to other teams. On the other hand, if there was no chance of trading Watt, would Pittsburgh be making any calls at all? He's seeking a jumbo contract extension, and coming off his worst sack number in a full season since his rookie year, Watt may not quite feel worth $40 million or more per year to the Steelers. MORE: How good was LeBron at football? NBA legend would have been 'one of the best' in NFL Advertisement It'd be tough to judge what another team would have to give up to get Watt, because there'd be the assumption that the acquiring team would also be prepared to shell out a huge contract for Watt, too. It's something to keep an eye on as the season gets closer, though. Watt would surely like to get a deal done before Week 1, if possible. It could come down to what kind of deal the Steelers really want to make, be it a new contract or some kind of trade. MORE NFL NEWS:
