Is Recovery in Big-Ticket Demand the Key to HD's Next Growth Leg?
Big-ticket sales, often a barometer of remodeling demand, grew just 0.3% in first-quarter fiscal 2025. Backed by this slowdown, the company's overall comparable sales (comps) declined 0.3%, with U.S. comps up just 0.2%. Given that big-ticket categories like kitchen, bath and major exterior remodels can represent 10-15% of total ticket sales, even a modest rebound can translate into hundreds of millions in incremental revenues.
With no major improvement expected in interest rates or housing turnover in 2025, the company anticipates continued pressure on big-ticket renovations, such as kitchen and bath remodels. While Pro sales have been strong, the shift in consumer spending toward smaller-scale repairs and maintenance projects suggests that larger project demand may not rebound meaningfully in the near term, limiting growth potential in high-margin categories.
However, Home Depot has been hard at work, positioning itself to capture this spending surge. Through its SRS acquisition and trade-credit rollout, the company offers financing options to thousands of pros, while streamlined digital and in-store lending tools make qualifying for consumer project loans easier. With in-stock rates for building materials and fixtures at record highs, Home Depot is ensuring that when rates soften, it can fulfill large orders without delay.
Ultimately, the degree to which big-ticket demand recovers will set the pace for Home Depot's next growth leg. Investors should monitor interest-rate trends, especially any drop below the current 7% mortgage norms, and early signs of increased financed project activity. Sustained acceleration in large-scale remodels can unlock a significant multiplier effect, driving both comp transactions and average ticket size well above the recent levels.
Home Depot's Key Competitiors
D's primary competitors, Lowe's Companies Inc. LOW and Walmart Inc. WMT, are also grappling with headwinds from muted demand in big-ticket categories. Like Home Depot, both retailers are seeing cautious consumer behavior, particularly in discretionary, high-value purchases such as appliances and home upgrades.
Lowe's big-ticket sales, those above $500, also remained soft in first-quarter fiscal 2025, particularly in appliances and outdoor living, reflecting continued consumer caution on large discretionary purchases. These high-value transactions are significant drivers of Lowe's overall revenues, especially in project-based categories like kitchens, flooring and bathroom remodels. Like Home Depot, Lowe's big-ticket business is closely tied to broader housing trends and interest rate movements. Both retailers rely on a mix of DIY and Pro customers, and are positioned to benefit from a rebound in financed renovation activity. A recovery in big-ticket demand would be a critical tailwind for Lowe's, potentially reigniting comps and supporting its Total Home strategy.
Walmart's big-ticket discretionary sales have been soft, particularly in electronics, appliances and home goods, as inflation-sensitive consumers prioritize essentials over discretionary spending. Unlike Home Depot, Walmart's overall business is less dependent on big-ticket items, with a larger portion of its revenues driven by groceries and everyday essentials. However, both companies face similar challenges in the big-ticket space, including cautious consumer sentiment and deferred purchases due to high interest rates. Walmart has responded by sharpening price points and emphasizing value, a strategy that mirrors Home Depot's efforts to maintain competitiveness in large-scale project categories. While big-ticket items make up a smaller share of Walmart's total sales, a rebound in this segment can still provide meaningful upside, particularly for its general merchandise division.
The Zacks Rundown for Home Depot
HD shares have lost 10.8% year to date compared with the industry 's decline of 13.9%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Home Depot trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22.31X, significantly higher than the industry's 19.68X. It has a VGM Score of B.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HD's fiscal 2025 earnings implies a year-over-year decline of 1.3%, whereas its fiscal 2026 earnings estimates indicate year-over-year growth of 9.2%. The estimate for fiscal 2025 has been northbound in the past 30 days, while that for fiscal 2026 EPS has moved south in the same period.
Home Depot currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Zacks Names #1 Semiconductor Stock
It's only 1/9,000th the size of NVIDIA which skyrocketed more than +800% since we recommended it. NVIDIA is still strong, but our new top chip stock has much more room to boom.
With strong earnings growth and an expanding customer base, it's positioned to feed the rampant demand for Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Internet of Things. Global semiconductor manufacturing is projected to explode from $452 billion in 2021 to $803 billion by 2028.
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