Tariff Fears To Power Amazon Prime Day And Walmart, Target Competing Sales Events

Forbes

14 hours ago

CANADA - 2025/05/03: In this photo illustration, the Amazon Prime Day logo is seen displayed on a ... More smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
Amazon is pulling out all the stops and capitalizing on consumers' tariff fears to make this year's July Prime Day event a smashing success. For the first time, Prime Day is being extended from two days to four – Tuesday, July 8, through Friday, July 11. It is also being held one week earlier than last year to coincide with President Trump's across-the-board tariffs that take effect on July 9. And Amazon is priming the pump with a slew of pre-Prime day deals.
Not to be outdone, Walmart will hold competing Walmart Deals events starting on July 7 for Walmart+ members, then for everyone else on July 8 and extending through July 13. Target's Circle Week will run from July 6 through July 12 and Target Circle 360 members will get early access on July 5. And both retailers will offer the same savings to in-store and online customers, unlike Amazon, which is restricted to shopping online by Prime members who pay $139 per year for the privilege.
While so-called 'Christmas in July' sales events are a retail tradition to spark sales during the dog days of summer from the Fourth of July through Labor Day, Amazon Prime Day, which was introduced on July 15, 2015 as a one-day event, has virtually replaced it and retailers far and wide have followed Amazon's lead.
Economic Worries Provide Tailwinds
This year, with consumer confidence falling – The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped 5.4 points in June after rising in May – and worries rising about the impact of tariffs on prices and product availability later in the year, retailers' July promotional events should unleash a wave of spending for back-to-school, college and even early fall and winter holiday spending.
That will be good news for retailers, which saw back-to-school spending drop 5% last year – from $41 billion in 2023 to $39 billion in 2024 – and back-to-college off 7% – from $94 billion to $87 billion – according to the National Retail Federation.
The NRF has yet to release BTS projections for 2025, though the trend in recent years is toward shopping earlier in the season for the best deals. By early July last year, some 55% of shoppers had begun BTS and BTC shopping.
'Consumers will be looking to economize as much as possible this BTS season and will be very budget conscious when making purchasing decisions,' shared Revionics' global pricing expert Matt Pavich.
'As with all holidays, promotions play a major role in whether or not a retailer will be successful. This is even more true at a time when consumers are increasingly worried about their own personal finances and the direction of the economy,' he continued.
Amazon Pitches For Young Adult Members
Besides doubling the time Amazon Prime members can take advantage of this year's deals, Amazon is making a push to bring young adults aged 18 to 24 years onto the platform. Capital One estimates there are about 180.1 million U.S. Prime members, reaching some 53% of adult Americans. However, Prime membership penetration is lowest (only 5%) among shoppers born after 1997.
These are the shoppers Amazon is targeting with a new Prime for Young Adults program. Young adults ages 18 to 24 can sign up for a free six-month trial membership that converts to a 50% discount off the regular Prime membership fee. Young adults will pay $7.49 per month or $69 per year. And for a limited time young adult members earn a 5% cash back bonus.
Also new this year is a 'Today's Big Deals' feature spotlighting the day's top discounts and new deals will drop as often as every five minutes during prime-time periods over the four-day sales event.
In addition, Amazon Prime members will get real-world fuel savings through participating BP, Amoco and ampm dealers. Prime members save $1 per gallon on a fuel purchase up to 35 gallons during the Fourth of July weekend (July 3 to 6), and throughout the rest of the year, they get a $0.10 cents per gallon discount on purchases.
Amazon third-party sellers, which account for more than 60% of Amazon retail sales, may be caught in the crosshairs as Amazon stretches Prime Day to four days. 'Small to midsized third-party sellers, already the hardest hit by tariffs, are having to make the tough choice of either reducing participation or raising rates,' observed Brett Rose, CEO of United National Consumer Supplies.
Rose believes Amazon owned and private-label brands will take center stage as independent sellers pull back. 'Expect to see Amazon products like Echo, Fire, Amazon Basics and Amazon Essentials pushed aggressively throughout the event, where it already enjoys margin advantages and can better absorb cost pressures.'
Walmart Deal Days Open In Store
Like Amazon, Walmart is extending its July Deal Days from four to six days this year, but last year's and this year's start date is the same, July 8, unlike Amazon's which was moved up from July 16 last year.
However, the big unlock for Walmart this year is opening Deal Days to both in-store and online shoppers, unlike last year when Deal Days were restricted to Walmart+ members, only a tiny fraction of the 255 million weekly Walmart shoppers.
Anticipating a strong showing during the quarter, Walmart now expects second quarter revenues to be at the high-end or even exceed its previous 3.5% to 4.5% growth guidance.
Target Holding The Line On Price
Target Circle Week is happening about the same time as last year's and will extend over the same five days. And while the sale prices will be available to both in-store and online customers, they must be members of the free Target Circle loyalty program, which differs from its paid Target Circle 360 membership. Target Circle 360 members get additional benefits, like free two-day deliveries and opportunities for same-day delivery from local stores, for a $99 annual fee.
Target's Circle Week event is leaning into back-to-school shopping heavily, offering college students and teachers a one-time 20% off storewide discount, as well as a 50% discount off one-year Target Circle 360 membership.
Touting that 20 'must-have' supplies can be had for less than $20, it is offering these items for the same price as last year. It also is promoting over 1,000 essential back-to-school supplies priced under $5.
Target is hoping that this year's Circle Week can help reverse the company's sales slump. It ended fiscal 2024 down nearly 1% and first quarter 2025 revenues were off 2.8%. However, both Walmart and Amazon have wind at their back, while Target's reputation is suffering.
Biggest July Sales Event Ever
Last year, American retailers across the board enjoyed a $14.2 billion uplift coinciding with Amazon's two-day Prime Day event. Emarketer estimated that Amazon.com brought in approximately 60% of total spending, spreading the remaining 40% across other retailers, like Walmart and Target. With Amazon Prime Day now extended to four days, it isn't inconceivable that this year's take could double that from last year.
Amazon Prime Day continues to provide an across-the-board lift to retail. Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, gasoline stations and food services, grew a healthy 3.6% in 2024; however, in only four months out of the 12 did it experience an over 5% year-over-year increase – October (+5.9%), February (+5.6%), December (+5.2%) and July (+5.3%).
With retail sales already exceeding last year's annual 3.6% uptick through May, a strong July bodes well for the remainder of the year, even as tariff's impact on retail prices and performance threatens.
However, Axios' Madison Mills reports that Wall Street is already operating with a post-tariff outlook. 'The market is a forward-looking machine, and it's already priced in better-than-expected trade deals before they're signed.'
She cites Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's economic agenda centered on tax, trade and deregulation policies and the passage of Trump's Big, Beautiful Bill as a catalyst for renewed economic confidence.
'If uncertainty wanes, maybe spending roars right back,' she wrote and quoted RSM US chief economist Joe Brusuelas saying 'It's summer silly season,' with fear-of-missing-out driving positive investor sentiment.
The same FOMO motivation can be expected to drive consumers in droves to this July's sales events. Amazon, Walmart, Target and many others say 'Bring it on.'