Fact-checking three key claims about Trump's mega-bill
It has been subject to tense negotiations amid questions about how much it could cost and its proposed cuts to some US welfare schemes.
Elon Musk has also weighed in, repeating threats to form a new political party if the "insane spending bill passes".
BBC Verify has looked at claims made about the bill's possible impact in three key areas - the US national finances, medical cover, and taxes.
The White House has said the bill "reduces deficits by over $2 trillion" - but senior Democrats have insisted it would actually add trillions.
BBC Verify has examined various independent studies about the bill's impact and interviewed six tax experts who all agreed that it would increase the national deficit.
The deficit is what happens when the US government spends more than it collects through taxes and other forms of revenue.
Musk criticised lawmakers who "voted for the biggest debt increase in history" when it was being passed in the US Senate.
The debt is the overall sum of money owed by the government - essentially the accumulation of past budget deficits - which means it has to borrow money and pay interest on this.
Trump's mega-bill heads for final vote in overnight US House session
A look at the key items in Trump's sprawling budget bill
'Our food doesn't even last the month' - Americans brace for Trump's welfare cuts
The US national debt is currently about $36tn (£26tn) - of which about $29tn is money owed by the government to investors around the world.
Larger deficits and a bigger debt can theoretically result in higher interest rates - the idea being that investors worry more about a country's capacity to pay its debts as those rise and they therefore demand higher interest payments.
That can feed into higher interest rates for consumers which make things like housing and cars less affordable, and restrict business investment and therefore productivity and jobs.
The current version of the bill is estimated to add about $3.3tn (£2.4tn) to the US deficit over the next 10 years, despite an initial economic boost, according to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) - the government agency which provides independent analysis of spending.
The CBO said the spending cuts proposed in the bill would be outweighed by the tax cuts.
An analysis from the Tax Foundation think tank concluded that the bill "would increase economic output but worsen deficits". It projects that the bill would increase the level of US GDP by around 1% after 10 years relative to where it would otherwise be, but that it would also add $3.6tn (£2.6tn) to the deficit over the same period.
Some banks have said they are in favour of the bill - with the American Bankers Association writing an open letter to lawmakers saying it provides "much needed tax relief" which would boost the economy.
The experts BBC Verify spoke to said although the bill may provide some economic growth, its cost would be significantly more than this boost.
"Most analysis finds that the bill will produce a small, temporary, short-lived boost – but that over time the bill will actually be a drag on the economy," says Bobby Kogan, a federal budget expert at the Center for American Progress, a nonpartisan policy institute.
And Mark Zandi, an economist at the financial consultancy Moody's Analytics, says: "It will result in continued massive budget deficits, and a high and rising debt load."
"We're cutting $1.7 trillion in this bill and you're not gonna feel any of it. Your Medicaid is left alone. It's left the same," Trump claimed at an event about the bill last week.
However, various studies show there will be significant reductions to Medicaid under the bill.
Medicaid is the government-run scheme which provides healthcare insurance for about 71 million low-income adults, children, pregnant women, elderly adults and people with disabilities.
Analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) - an independent health policy research group - found that the bill would cut $1tn (£729bn) from future Medicaid spending over the next 10 years.
The White House has said the bill "removes illegal aliens, enforces work requirements, and protects Medicaid for the truly vulnerable".
The CBO estimates that nearly 12 million Americans would lose health insurance by 2034 under the terms of the Senate bill - with just 1.4 million of these being people "without verified citizenship, nationality, or satisfactory immigration status".
"The largest Medicaid cut in American history came in President Reagan's first year in office… These Medicaid cuts would be at least four times the size," said Mr Kogan.
Trump has repeatedly said that not passing the bill would lead to massive tax rises on Americans - in part because the tax cuts passed during his first-term in office are due to expire at the end of this year.
"If it's not approved, your taxes will go up by 68%," the president said last week.
We asked the White House for the calculations behind Trump's claim - they responded saying the bill "prevents the largest tax hike in history" but didn't answer our question on where the specific figure comes from.
The Tax Policy Center estimates that not extending tax cuts introduced under Trump in 2017 would lead to a hike of 7.5% on average.
The body also says roughly 60% of tax payers would have to contribute more if they expire.
"The 68% figure is incorrect… It could be roughly drawn from a count of taxpayers that would see an increase in taxes, as opposed to an estimate of the actual tax increase," says Elena Patel, a tax policy expert and assistant professor at the University of Utah's business school.
Overall, the tax changes in the bill would benefit wealthier Americans more than those on lower incomes, according to the Tax Policy Center analysis. About 60% of the benefits would go to those making above $217,000 (£158,000), it found.
"There is no question that this bill will result in a massive redistribution from the poorest to the richest," says Ms Patel.
What do you want BBC Verify to investigate?
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
18 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump claims he's made a ‘massive' trade deal with Japan
President Donald Trump boasted Tuesday that he had made a 'massive' deal with Japan that would generate 'thousands of jobs' and billions of dollars for the U.S. The president announced the trade framework – 'perhaps the largest Deal ever made' – in a Truth Social post Tuesday, revealing that a 15 percent tax on goods imported from Japan had been agreed. In the post Trump said Japan would invest 'at my direction' $550 billion into the U.S. and would 'open' its economy to American-made vehicles as well as 'rice' and 'other things.' But further details remained scant. The 15 percent tax on imported Japanese goods is a significant drop from the 25 percent rate that Trump, in a recent letter to Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, said would be levied starting on August 1. 'This Deal will create Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs — There has never been anything like it,' the president posted on Truth Social, adding that the United States 'will continue to always have a great relationship with the Country of Japan.' 'This is a very exciting time for the United States of America, and especially for the fact that we will continue to always have a great relationship with the Country of Japan. Thank you for your attention to this matter!' Early Wednesday in Tokyo, Japanese Prime Minister Shigera Ishiba confirmed the new trade agreement, saying it would benefit both sides and help them work together. 'The government was determined to protect national interests,' Ishiba told reporters, per the Wall Street Journal. Trump's announcement appeared to excite investors, with the benchmark Nikkei – the Tokyo stock market – climbing 2.6 percent to its highest in a year, with shares of automakers also surging. Toyota grew by more than 11 percent, with Honda and Nissan both up more than 8 percent. But American automakers were less buoyed with the deal, with concerns raised over low import levies from Japan, compared to tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico remaining at 25 percent. Matt Blunt, head of the American Automotive Policy Council, said, "Any deal that charges a lower tariff for Japanese imports with virtually no U.S. content than the tariff imposed on North American-built vehicles with high U.S. content is a bad deal for U.S. industry and U.S. auto workers.' Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
18 minutes ago
- Yahoo
These are the 3 manufacturing sectors set to be the big winners of Trump's Made in America push
Trump wants to increase manufacturing in the United States. His economic agenda has centered on measures meant to compel companies to build on US soil. These three industries are the likely big winners of the Made In America push, Oxford Economics says. President Donald Trump wants more stuff to be made in America. Upon taking office in January, he implemented tariffs against prominent US trade partners in an effort to bring more manufacturing back to American shores, brushing off warnings of potential pain for companies and consumers. But some industries are likely to see a boost in US manufacturing over others, Oxford Economics said on Tuesday. The firm is predicting that high-tech goods, pharmaceuticals, and aerospace technology will have an advantage. Nico Palesch, a senior economist at the forecasting firm, said these industries are well-positioned to benefit from Trump's policies because they already have a foothold in the US market. "A sector that has significant domestic capacity in the US is much more likely to be able to expand capacity and accrue benefits from changes in tariffs or reductions in taxation because the business case for operating in the US is already strong, as opposed to a sector that would essentially need to be built from the ground up," he stated. Despite high economic uncertainty, Palesch added that Trump's policies are likely to help spur growth for US manufacturing. He also credited the CHIPS and Inflation Reduction Acts of 2022 with helping revitalize US manufacturing in areas such as semiconductors and green technology production. In his view, they will be responsible "for a majority of reindustrialization" in the coming years. Palesch highlighted the advantage that companies with a strong US presence will have, noting that he did not believe Trump's policies would bring back an abundance of manufacturing jobs to the US. "A car maker in the US is more likely to decide to expand an existing production line or set up a new factory to try and capture more market share at the expense of tariffed competition than a firm operating in a sector that has little or no presence in the US," he added. The economist said he sees Boeing as a top pick among aerospace stocks, adding that while the company has experienced some negative publicity of late, "it remains one of the two major international aerospace manufacturers capable of producing the types of aircraft typically used in air travel at scale." Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
18 minutes ago
- Yahoo
The president trotted out a bizarre superlative to crown his new favorite in his inner circle.
President Donald Trump had an eyebrow-raising superlative to offer Tuesday, calling Director of Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard the 'hottest in the room.' While speaking at a reception with Republican lawmakers at the White House, Trump singled out Gabbard—a former Democrat—declaring, 'She's like, hotter than everybody. She's the hottest one in the room right now.' Turning towards House Speaker Mike Johnson, who was also in the crowd, the 79-year-old president added, 'Speaker, she's hotter than you right now, speaker. She's the hottest person in the room right now, speaker,' eliciting roaring laughter from attendees.