CAP proposals to hit the most productive farms hardest
For example, aid would be reduced for half of the farmers, and three quarters of the farmland in France, which is the EU's top food producing member state.
The analysis was carried out by Farm Europe, a group of experts on agriculture and rural economies, many of whom previously held high positions in the EU Commission and Parliament.
They looked at public data on the distribution of aid in 2022 to farmers in the EU, France, Italy and the Czech Republic, and how this aid would be affected by the commission's new post-2028 plan to significantly reduce the budget for the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), while capping aid at €100,000 per farm, and radically redistributing the aid from farmers paid more than €20,000 to lower paid farmers.
Farm Europe found that in France, more than 50% of farmers now receiving more than €5,000 a year would have their aid reduced. These farmers have about 73% of the total agricultural area in France.
Farm Europe said: "Such a formula would further increase the economic pressure on farms, which currently account for the bulk of EU production. There is no doubt that this approach would accelerate the process of agricultural restructuring across Europe, encouraging expansion and making it particularly difficult for young farmers to set up traditional family farms.
It could also encourage EU farmers to focus their efforts on reducing costs rather than optimising production, which would seriously undermine the objective of agricultural sovereignty.
Farm Europe found that in the Czech Republic, aid would be reduced for 85% of the productive sector.
In Italy, the owners of 57% of hectares would be adversely affected by redistributing aid from farmers paid more than €20,000 to lower paid farmers.
Farm Europe said: "On various scales, all member states would be severely affected by this proposal, which seems to be dictated more by a desire to save money than by a genuine desire for fairness or a vision for the future of the sector."
Across the EU, more than half of the utilised agricultural area would be affected by the reduction in aid, rising to two-thirds when the smallest farms are excluded (those receiving less than €5,000 in aid).
At EU level, one third of farmers with more than 12 hectares would see their subsidies reduced by redistributing aid from farmers paid more than €20,000 to lower paid farmers, according to the analysis by Farm Europe.
If farmers respond negatively to the new CAP, annual production could fall from the 2024 level of €532.4bn, of which half is crops, and about two-fifths is animals and animal products.
FoodDrinkEurope, which represents Europe's food and drink manufacturers, the buyers of 70% of EU agricultural output, said the European Commission's proposal to fold the CAP into a new cross-sectoral fund risks weakening one of the EU's most important strategic policies.
FoodDrinkEurope said a proposed ring-fenced €302bn envelope for farmers marks a significant decrease from the current CAP budget of €386.6bn. "Member states are expected to provide additional national contributions, which risks creating unequal levels of support across the EU".
The new CAP plan is part of the commission's proposal for the seven-year EU budget starting in 2028, of almost €2trn.
The proposal will be negotiated with the European Parliament, and the Council of the EU, representing EU countries, before final adoption.
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