Falcons 2025 preview: Can this offense produce enough to carry the load?

New York Times

09-07-2025

The Atlanta Falcons haven't made the playoffs since 2017, so as a preview to the 2025 season, we're going to look at the most likely statistical path for a return. We'll be relying on a bunch of statistics but leaning most heavily on DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), which measures the efficiency of every play run by every team and is widely considered a reliable indicator of team strength.
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In the last decade, playoff teams have finished an average of ninth in overall DVOA, 10th in offensive DVOA and 11th in defensive DVOA. The Falcons, as currently constructed — $174.7 million of cap commitments on offense versus $123.3 million on defense — likely will have to lean more heavily on their offense than most.
So, what are the realistic statistical landing spaces that could get Atlanta back into the postseason? We asked DVOA's creator, Aaron Schatz of FTNFantasy, and he believes that a Falcons team with a top-10 offense could make the playoffs with a defense in the top 20.
That leads to two more questions: What are the paths this team could take to reach the top 10 in offensive DVOA and top 20 in defensive DVOA?
Today, we'll address the offensive question.
The Falcons finished 13th in offensive DVOA last season but are confident that number will improve with more than 99 percent of their offensive production returning and a developing quarterback in second-year starter Michael Penix Jr.
time to enjoy some @themikepenix dots 😮‍💨🎯 pic.twitter.com/Ohie1ls09c
— NFL (@NFL) July 7, 2025
The only significant offensive contributor from last season who isn't on the roster heading into training camp is center Drew Dalman, who signed with the Bears as a free agent in the offseason.
Most of last year's offensive weight was carried by the running game. The Falcons finished fifth in rushing DVOA last season behind Baltimore, Detroit, Buffalo and Green Bay. They were sixth in expected points added per rush (.06), according to TruMedia.
Third-year running back Bijan Robinson believes those numbers should improve.
'Sixth is not good enough,' he said. 'There were five other teams that were better than us. What do we need to do to be the offense that everybody talks about? That everybody mimics?'
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Robinson finished third in the NFL in rushing last season with 1,456 yards on 304 carries, and he's one of only four running backs with more than 2,400 rushing yards in the last two seasons (joining Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley and Kyren Williams). Robinson's 1,887 yards from scrimmage ranked fourth in the league and were 30 percent of the Falcons offense. Only Saquon Barkley (34.8 percent) had a higher share of his team's offensive output.
'If he touched the ball every play and the defense knew, we'd still make big-time plays. He's that guy,' Penix said. 'He's the guy that when you go to a Little League game, and there's that one kid that never gets tackled, that scores every time, that's him but in the NFL. As many times as we can get the ball in his hands, we're going to do it.'
Tyler Allgeier — who Schatz said 'might be the best backup running back in the league' — was 32nd in the league last season with 644 yards on 137 carries, and the Falcons were 12th in yards per carry as a group (4.5).
The team has what Robinson referred to as 'outlandish goals' for the rushing totals this season, even after losing 20 percent of its starting offensive line. Ryan Neuzil, a former UDFA out of Appalachian State who is in his fourth year in the league, takes over Dalman's spot in the starting lineup.
'We're excited about Neuz being in charge of the offensive line,' offensive coordinator Zac Robinson said. 'You're seeing a little bit more comfort with him now that he is the guy, and he'll just continue to take those steps.'
Neuzil started eight games last season after Dalman suffered an ankle injury. Although Pro Football Focus graded Dalman much higher as a run blocker (79.8 grade for Dalman versus 60.5 for Neuzil), the Falcons' rushing numbers were better across the board with Neuzil in the lineup. Atlanta had a higher rushing success rate (47.7 percent versus 43.2 percent), more yards per carry (4.5 versus 4.2) and a higher EPA per rush (.00 versus minus-.05) in Neuzil's games, according to TruMedia.
Outside of Neuzil, every other Falcons offensive lineman was graded 73 or higher in the run game by PFF, paced by Chris Lindstrom, who received the best run-blocking grade in the league (94.6).
Bijan Robinson's belief that Atlanta's run game could improve doesn't appear far-fetched considering all that, but it's the passing game where the most dramatic improvement is needed to bring up the overall DVOA number, Schatz said.
Atlanta was 15th in passing DVOA last season, with Kirk Cousins starting the first 14 games and Penix starting the final three. With Penix in the lineup, the Falcons were slightly worse in the passing game — 16th in the league in passing EPA (.08 per dropback) behind Cousins and 18th behind Penix (.06) — but they were a top-10 scoring team (27.8 ppg).
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Atlanta's coaching staff is optimistic Penix will make big strides in his second season as a starter, and much of the Falcons' overall success hinges on whether or not they are right.
'The style of play he plays matches our skill guys, and the skill guys love playing football with him,' Zac Robinson said. 'Just looking for all those guys to keep coming together. The guys on the team love him. He walks around with a swagger.'
However, the quarterback's small sample size makes his progress difficult to predict statistically, Schatz said.
'We don't know who Michael Penix is,' Schatz said. 'He was kind of good last year. You know who was kind of good in three games last year? Anthony Richardson.'
The easiest way for Penix and the passing game to improve is completion percentage. The University of Washington product hit 58 percent of his passes in his three games, which ranked 30th from Week 15 through Week 18. The only starter in the league who was worse than that for the season was the Colts' Richardson (47.7 percent), and Penix's number would have ranked 315th among regular starters in the last 10 years.
The Falcons' coaches believe Penix's completion percentage will improve because a full offseason as the starter will allow him to build connections with his receivers. They also acknowledge that he needs to improve his touch on shorter throws.
'He's an aggressive player with an aggressive arm, but sometimes you have to be able to dial it back a little bit,' quarterbacks coach T.J. Yates said. 'It's the process of learning a quarterback and learning how to coach him.'
The coaching staff won't ask Penix to curtail his aggressiveness. In fact, it's the trait they are most excited about. Penix led the league in air yards per attempt (10.2) in his three starts. For the season, that number would have ranked second (again, behind only Richardson) last season, and it would be the 15th-most aggressive season in the last 10 years, according to TruMedia.
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'Mike opens up a different avenue within the offense,' Zac Robinson said.
In Penix's three starts, Atlanta was ninth in explosive pass play percentage (14.6 percent) but only 24th in offensive pass success rate (41.4 percent), according to TruMedia, meaning the passing game hit big plays when it hit them but didn't hit them often enough.
Penix returns the same starting wide receiver rotation this season, led by fourth-year pro Drake London, whom many in Atlanta expect to have a breakout season. Penix believes London is overlooked among NFL pass catchers.
'He won't be after this year,' the quarterback said. 'I'm not going to talk too much. It'll show.'
London was fourth in the league last season with 1,271 receiving yards and 12th in yards per game at 74.8. Darnell Mooney finished 25th in the league with 992 yards.
Neuzil's permanent place in the lineup likely won't detract much from Atlanta's pass blocking. The Falcons allowed a 30.8 pressure percentage with Dalman in the lineup and a 33.1 pressure percentage with Neuzil last season, according to TruMedia.
Atlanta was 22nd in the league in scoring (22.8 ppg) in its first season, with former Rams assistant Zac Robinson calling the plays. If he and Penix can improve on that number and Penix takes the steps his coaches and teammates believe he can, the top-10 offense that these Falcons likely need seems within their reach.
(Photo of Bijan Robinson: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)