Labour's surrender to Reform's narrative means Farage has already won

Middle East Eye

14 hours ago

Last week, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour government won the vote on its controversial welfare reform bill, but not without major concessions.
The government agreed to soften proposed disability benefit cuts and delay harsher assessments under pressure from its own MPs.
The bill, set to return to the House of Commons on Wednesday for further scrutiny, reflects an ideological shift so sharp it would have been unthinkable for a centre-left party just five years ago.
But this is not just a welfare reform bill - it is a symptom of something far deeper.
Labour is no longer simply fending off challenges from the populist right. It is actively absorbing its talking points and even adopting its policies.
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'Dickensian cuts'
Labour MP Rachael Maskell, who led the backbench revolt over the bill, voiced her opposition in stark terms: "These Dickensian cuts belong to a different era and a different party - they are far from what this Labour Party is for."
Yet the language used to sell the welfare bill - about cracking down on benefit fraud, getting people "back to work", and tackling a system "ripe for abuse" - mirrors Reform UK's own narrative.
Reform leader Nigel Farage recently declared the disability system "nonsense", claiming people are "taking the mickey" and exploiting short virtual consultations to gain financial support.
That a Labour government is not just echoing but keen to enforce Reform UK's ideas tells us more about the country's political direction than any opinion poll could
That a Labour government is not just echoing but keen to enforce these ideas tells us more about the country's political direction than any opinion poll could.
It should set off alarm bells for what it signals about the future of British politics.
Even with just five MPs and no time in government, Reform UK is already shaping policy.
The far right does not need to win seats if it can normalise the narrative it has been peddling - othering and demonising those living on the margins of society.
And right now, it seems to be succeeding.
A June 2025 poll from UK survey firm Ipsos' relaunched Political Monitor found that Reform UK is now leading in national voting intention with 34 percent - a full nine points ahead of Labour.
That is the highest figure Ipsos has ever recorded for them, and the lowest for Labour since October 2019. The Conservatives, once Labour's chief rival, have slumped to a record low of 15 percent.
This is not just a blip - it signals a tectonic shift.
Shifting the centre
For now, Farage does not need to win a majority to influence national policy. Just as pressure from his earlier outfit, Ukip, led to Brexit, Reform UK's current momentum is shifting the political centre of gravity rightward - especially on welfare and immigration.
That is why Labour is now pushing reforms that disproportionately affect the very people who have traditionally formed its base: the working class, ethnic minorities, the disabled. In a bid to appeal to potential Reform voters, Starmer's Labour is reshaping its image.
Starmer's fear is not unfounded.
Reform UK hit the ruling Labour Party hard as recently as May this year, sweeping local councils from Kent to County Durham.
According to the Ipsos data, Labour has retained only 54 percent of its 2024 voters, losing a notable 12 percent directly to Reform UK. The Conservatives have fared even worse, retaining just 48 percent - with a massive 37 percent defecting to Reform. Even more telling is that nearly one in four non-voters in 2024 now say they would back Reform UK.
The populist right is becoming the political home for Britain's alienated - and Labour is chasing them. Instead of neutralising Reform, it is legitimising it.
Take Starmer's decision to abandon Labour's flagship £28bn ($38.2bn) green investment pledge. The party now plans to spend just £23.7bn ($32.4bn) over five years - a move that brings it closer in line with Reform UK's climate rollback agenda.
And while Labour MPs are rebelling, with dozens voicing concern over the welfare bill alone, their warnings are unlikely to reverse the broader trend: a party drifting rightward, willing to trade its identity to keep Reform UK's support base from growing.
Now Labour's immigration rhetoric has taken a populist turn.
In May, Starmer warned that Britain "risked becoming an island of strangers" unless immigration was curtailed.
His statement sparked comparisons to Enoch Powell's infamous "rivers of blood" speech, with London Mayor Sadiq Khan warning that Starmer was treading dangerously close to the far-right framing of the conversation.
Once again, Reform UK has not needed to win power to win the argument because Labour seems to be doing its bidding.
Capitulation
This is how populism wins: not through ballots alone, but through capitulation - by overhauling the political narrative, setting the tone of the debate and making previously radical views feel like common sense.
The implications are enormous. Labour appears willing to sacrifice its core principles to appease swing voters leaning toward Reform. The party leadership has made its direction clear: it is better to risk betraying its values than to risk bleeding votes to the right.
How Starmer careened from honourable left to racist right Read More »
Meanwhile, Britain faces urgent challenges, including housing shortages, a crisis-stricken NHS, record levels of inequality, and record-high food bank use.
Yet the national conversation is focused on cutting benefits, stopping the migrants, and scaling back green targets - all at the heart of Reform UK's agenda.
Labour is no longer leading the national conversation. It is reacting to the noise that Reform is creating.
It will be a tragedy if Britain continues to sleepwalk into this ideological convergence.
The question now is whether the public - and Labour itself - will realise this before it is too late. If the country's only alternative to right-wing populism is a party busy enacting it, then the far right has already won.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.