Former Trump Trade Official: Not Optimistic About US-EU Deal
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Trump tariffs live updates: China truce extension reported, Lutnick discusses EU deal potential
The South China Morning Post reported on Sunday that "Beijing and Washington are expected to extend their tariff truce by another three months at trade talks in Stockholm beginning on Monday." Also on Sunday, with President Trump in Scotland for negotiations with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that the EU has to open its markets for US exports if it wants to convince Trump to reduce the 30% tariff he's threatened to put in place August 1. "The question is, do they offer President Trump a good enough deal that is worth it for him to step off of the 30% tariffs that he set," Lutnick told Fox News, adding that Trump was looking to increase access for U.S. firms. On Friday, Trump put the odds of a trade deal with the European Union at "50-50," even as negotiators from both sides have expressed optimism about reaching a deal before the Aug. 1 deadline. Trump also said that letters dictating tariff rates for over 200 countries would go out soon while his administration works to clinch deals with larger trade partners, including the EU, India, and Canada. Trump said the US hasn't had a "lot of luck" with Canada and suggested he may impose threatened 35% levies on goods not covered by the US-Canada-Mexico trade agreement. President Trump last week touted a $550 billion investment in the US that Japan made as part of trade negotiations that set a 15% tariff on goods imported into the US from Japan. On Saturday, Japanese trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa suggested the money could be used to help finance a Taiwanese chipmaker building plants in the US. Akazawa did not name a specific Taiwanese company, but in March, Taiwan's TSMC announced a $100 billion investment in the US, on top of plans to build three plants in Arizona, one of which is already operating. "For example, if a Taiwanese chipmaker builds a plant in the U.S. and uses Japanese components or tailors its products to meet Japanese needs, that's fine too," he said. In any case, the Japan trade deal may have set a precedent for Trump's new baseline tariff rate. As the US finalized the deal with Japan and advanced talks with the EU, Trump said tariffs would range from 15% to 50%, with tougher partners facing higher rates. Trump's April "Liberation Day" tariffs had set a baseline rate of 10% on all US trading partners. Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet Here are the latest updates as the policy reverberates around the world. Lutnick: EU has to offer Trump 'a good enough deal' to avoid 30% tariffs As President Trump prepares for a planned meeting about tariffs with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that the European Union has to open its markets for US exports if it wants to convince Trump to reduce the 30% tariff he's threatened to put in place August 1. Reuters reports Lutnick said the EU appeared to want to make a deal: On Friday, Trump said the odds of a trade deal with the EU were about "50-50," even as negotiators from both sides expressed optimism. Read more here. LG says consumers rushed to buy appliances ahead of tariffs Tariffs remain a key concern for South Korean appliance maker LG Electronics ( The company said that if President Trump's blanket tariffs take effect on Aug. 1, it will adjust prices and move some production to its plants in Mexico and the US. LG produces its products worldwide, particularly in South Korea, China, and Vietnam. On Aug. 1, imports from South Korea face a 25% tariff, while those from Vietnam face a 20% tariff. Imports from China are estimated to face tariffs of roughly 50%, though that could change after US and Chinese officials meet in Sweden for the next round of trade talks. According to LG, consumers rushed to purchase items in the first half of the year to avoid tariffs. Still, the company's net profit fell 3.1% in Q2 as operating costs increased. "Some consumers have been rushing to make purchases before the tariffs take effect," an executive said on the earnings call. "In the first half of 2025, we achieved approximately 3% growth year over year, higher than the market demand with new product launches and efficient sales operations, continuing to strengthen our market presence." But that pull-forward in demand could signal weakness ahead in the months to come if trade tensions escalate again. "A rise in product costs driven by the 50% tariff on steel and reciprocal tariffs that are set to be applied in the latter half of the year could translate into greater uncertainties for the market price," the executive said. "Additionally, shifts in the US government's trade policies and weakening consumer sentiment cast doubt on the demand outlook for home appliances." This isn't the first time LG has grappled with US protectionist policies. In 2018, during Trump's first term, washing machine prices rose when Trump targeted the industry with tariffs. Japan says $550 billion investment could finance Taiwanese chipmaker in US The $550 billion President Trump said Japan gave to the US "to lower their tariffs a little bit," could be used to help finance a Taiwanese chipmaker building plants in the US, the Associated Press reported Saturday. Trump on Thursday called the $550 billion "seed money" and that 90% of profits from the money invested would go to the US. "It's not a loan or anything, it's a signing bonus," Trump said. Read more here. More cracks form in the US-Japan trade agreement We detailed earlier (keep scrolling) some initial, if gentle, pushback from the Japanese side on the US portrayal of the countries' trade deal. The Financial Times has a good, detailed look at some of the "cracks" forming: Read more here (subscription required). EU head to meet with Trump this weekend in bid to clinch deal Bloomberg reports that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with President Trump this weekend as he travels to his golf club in Scotland in a bid to secure a trade deal. The meeting will come as the two sides race to secure a deal ahead of next Friday — Trump's self-imposed deadline for 30% tariffs on EU goods to kick in. On Friday, Trump put the odds of a deal at "50-50." From the report: Trump: 'We haven't really had a lot of luck with Canada' President Trump on Friday expressed pessimism on US trade negotiations with Canada, suggesting he may simply impose threatened 35% tariffs on Canadian goods not covered by the existing US-Canada-Mexico trade agreement. "We haven't really had a lot of luck with Canada. I think Canada could be one where there's just a tariff, not really a negotiation," he said. More from Reuters: Boston Beer Company says strong profits helped brewer absorb tariff costs The Boston Beer Company (SAM) continues to feel the effects of President Trump's tariffs, but a strong quarter of sales and profit is helping the Samuel Adams brewer absorb some of those cost increases. Boston Beer expects tariffs to add about $15 million to $20 million in costs for the full year. Previously, it modeled tariff costs of $20 million to $30 million. Expect the company to raise prices by 1% to 2% to offset some of the costs as well, executives said. Boston Beer did see tariffs negatively affect its gross margin toward the end of the second quarter, but it benefited from improved brewery efficiencies. For the second quarter, the company reported profits of $5.45 per share on revenue of $625 million, versus estimates for earnings of $4.00 per share on $588 million, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. "Right now, I think we're very happy with the performance," Boston Beer CEO Michael Spillane said on the earnings call. "Not only that, but that's allowed us to offset some of the tariffs that we've seen so far." Some headlines from Trump on tariffs this morning Via Bloomberg: Trump: US will sell 'so much' beef to Australia President Trump said on Thursday that the US will sell "so much" beef to Australia, following Canberra relaxing import restrictions. Trump added that other countries who had refused US beef products were on notice. Reuters reports: Read more here. World's No. 3 automaker Kia takes $570M tariff hit in Q2 Reuters reports: Read more here. Puma shares dive after warning of full-year loss, US tariff impact Puma ( shares fell 17% on Friday after the sportswear brand said that it now expects an annual loss due to a decline in sales and US tariffs denting profit. Reuters reports: Read more here. LG Energy Solution warns of slowing EV battery demand due to U.S. tariffs, policy headwinds Reuters reports: South Korean battery firm LG Energy ( Solution warned on Friday of a further slowdown in demand by early next year due to U.S. tariffs and policy uncertainties after it posted a quarterly profit jump. Its major customers Tesla (TSLA) and General Motors (GM) warned of fallout from U.S. tariffs and legislation that will end federal subsidies for EV purchases on September 30. "US tariffs and an early end to EV subsidies will put a burden on automakers, potentially leading to vehicle price increases and a slowdown in EV growth in North America," CFO Lee Chang-sil said during a conference call. Read more here. Japan, US differ on how trade-deal profits will be split Japan said Friday that profits from the $550 billion investment deal with the US will be shared based on how much each side contributes. A government official suggested the US will also put in significant funds, but details of the scheme remain unclear. The White House had announced earlier in the week that the US would retain 90% of the profits from the $550 billion US-bound investment and loans that Japan would exchange in return for reduced tariffs on auto and other exports to the US. This would mean that returns would be split 10% for Japan and 90% for the US, according to the White House official, and that it would be "based on the respective levels of contribution and risk borne by each side." Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. US business activity rises; tariffs fuel inflation concerns US business activity rose in July, but companies increased the prices for goods and services, supporting the view from economists that inflation will accelerate in the second half of 2025 and it will mainly be due to tariffs on imports. Reuters reports: Read more here. It sounds like Trump now has a new minimum tariff rate: 15% President Trump set a new rhetorical floor for tariffs on Wednesday night in comments in a shift that raises the president's baseline rate from 10%. Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul writes: Read more here. Keurig Dr. Pepper brewer sales volume drops 22%, CEO says tariff impacts 'will become prominent' Keurig Dr. Pepper CEO Tim Cofer said that tariffs are putting additional pressure on the company in an earnings call Thursday, especially when it comes to its coffee business, which KDP expects to be "subdued" for the remainder of the year. "Commodity inflation will build as we roll into the back half and we roll into our higher cost hedges on green coffee," Cofer said. "The tariff impacts will become prominent. And we all know that tariff situation is a bit fluid." Keurig is one of the biggest coffee importers in the US, along with Starbucks (SBUX) and Nestle (NSRGY). The US sources most of its coffee from Brazil, which is set to face 50% tariffs on its products on Aug. 1, and Colombia, which faces a tariff rate of 10%. In Keurig's coffee business, appliance volume decreased 22.6% during the quarter, reflecting impacts of retailer inventory management, and K-Cup pod volume decreased 3.7%, reflecting category elasticity in response to price increases, the company reported. "Our retail partners will likely continue to manage their inventory levels tightly, in particular on brewers," Cofer commented. "And then finally, you know we did a round of pricing at the beginning of the year. We've announced another round of pricing that will take effect next month, and we'll need to closely monitor how that elasticity evolves." Read more about Keurig earnings here. The EU's Trump insurance As my colleague detailed below, EU member states voted to impose tariffs on over $100 billion of US goods from Aug. 7. The Financial Times reported that this move that allows the bloc to impose the levies quickly at any point in the future should its trade relationship with the US take a turn for the worse. From the report: Read more here (subscription required). Europe approves $100B-plus tariff backup plan A report in the Wall Street Journal on Thursday said that the European Union has now approved its retaliatory tariff package on US goods that could start in August if no trade agreement is reached. The EU announced on Wednesday that it will hit the US with 30% tariffs on over $100 billion worth of goods in the event that no deal is made and if President Trump decides to follow through with his threat to impose that rate on most of the bloc's exports after Aug. 1. The US exports, which would include goods such as Boeing (BA) aircraft, US-made cars and bourbon whiskey would all face heavy tariffs that match Trump's 30% threat. The approval of the package comes despite the growing optimism that the US and EU will reach a deal that would put baseline tariffs on the bloc at 15%, matching the level the US applied to Japan. The EU is keen to reach a deal with the US but as a cautionary measure has approved 30% tariffs if a deal is not made. Trump tariffs wreaking havoc in Brazil's citrus belt Reuters reports: Read more here. South Korea weighs US investment pledge to trim auto tariff Trade discussions between the US and South Korea have led both sides to investigate the idea of creating a fund to invest in American projects. A report said this possible deal would be similar to the agreement Japan struck Tuesday with President Trump. The details of the plan are still not clear, but the US has been seeking pledges totaling hundreds of billions of dollars. However, further talks on a deal between the two sides may have to wait as a trade meeting between the US and South Korea has been postponed after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent became unavailable due to a scheduling conflict, South Korea's Finance Ministry said Thursday. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Lutnick: EU has to offer Trump 'a good enough deal' to avoid 30% tariffs As President Trump prepares for a planned meeting about tariffs with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that the European Union has to open its markets for US exports if it wants to convince Trump to reduce the 30% tariff he's threatened to put in place August 1. Reuters reports Lutnick said the EU appeared to want to make a deal: On Friday, Trump said the odds of a trade deal with the EU were about "50-50," even as negotiators from both sides expressed optimism. Read more here. As President Trump prepares for a planned meeting about tariffs with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that the European Union has to open its markets for US exports if it wants to convince Trump to reduce the 30% tariff he's threatened to put in place August 1. Reuters reports Lutnick said the EU appeared to want to make a deal: On Friday, Trump said the odds of a trade deal with the EU were about "50-50," even as negotiators from both sides expressed optimism. Read more here. LG says consumers rushed to buy appliances ahead of tariffs Tariffs remain a key concern for South Korean appliance maker LG Electronics ( The company said that if President Trump's blanket tariffs take effect on Aug. 1, it will adjust prices and move some production to its plants in Mexico and the US. LG produces its products worldwide, particularly in South Korea, China, and Vietnam. On Aug. 1, imports from South Korea face a 25% tariff, while those from Vietnam face a 20% tariff. Imports from China are estimated to face tariffs of roughly 50%, though that could change after US and Chinese officials meet in Sweden for the next round of trade talks. According to LG, consumers rushed to purchase items in the first half of the year to avoid tariffs. Still, the company's net profit fell 3.1% in Q2 as operating costs increased. "Some consumers have been rushing to make purchases before the tariffs take effect," an executive said on the earnings call. "In the first half of 2025, we achieved approximately 3% growth year over year, higher than the market demand with new product launches and efficient sales operations, continuing to strengthen our market presence." But that pull-forward in demand could signal weakness ahead in the months to come if trade tensions escalate again. "A rise in product costs driven by the 50% tariff on steel and reciprocal tariffs that are set to be applied in the latter half of the year could translate into greater uncertainties for the market price," the executive said. "Additionally, shifts in the US government's trade policies and weakening consumer sentiment cast doubt on the demand outlook for home appliances." This isn't the first time LG has grappled with US protectionist policies. In 2018, during Trump's first term, washing machine prices rose when Trump targeted the industry with tariffs. Tariffs remain a key concern for South Korean appliance maker LG Electronics ( The company said that if President Trump's blanket tariffs take effect on Aug. 1, it will adjust prices and move some production to its plants in Mexico and the US. LG produces its products worldwide, particularly in South Korea, China, and Vietnam. On Aug. 1, imports from South Korea face a 25% tariff, while those from Vietnam face a 20% tariff. Imports from China are estimated to face tariffs of roughly 50%, though that could change after US and Chinese officials meet in Sweden for the next round of trade talks. According to LG, consumers rushed to purchase items in the first half of the year to avoid tariffs. Still, the company's net profit fell 3.1% in Q2 as operating costs increased. "Some consumers have been rushing to make purchases before the tariffs take effect," an executive said on the earnings call. "In the first half of 2025, we achieved approximately 3% growth year over year, higher than the market demand with new product launches and efficient sales operations, continuing to strengthen our market presence." But that pull-forward in demand could signal weakness ahead in the months to come if trade tensions escalate again. "A rise in product costs driven by the 50% tariff on steel and reciprocal tariffs that are set to be applied in the latter half of the year could translate into greater uncertainties for the market price," the executive said. "Additionally, shifts in the US government's trade policies and weakening consumer sentiment cast doubt on the demand outlook for home appliances." This isn't the first time LG has grappled with US protectionist policies. In 2018, during Trump's first term, washing machine prices rose when Trump targeted the industry with tariffs. Japan says $550 billion investment could finance Taiwanese chipmaker in US The $550 billion President Trump said Japan gave to the US "to lower their tariffs a little bit," could be used to help finance a Taiwanese chipmaker building plants in the US, the Associated Press reported Saturday. Trump on Thursday called the $550 billion "seed money" and that 90% of profits from the money invested would go to the US. "It's not a loan or anything, it's a signing bonus," Trump said. Read more here. The $550 billion President Trump said Japan gave to the US "to lower their tariffs a little bit," could be used to help finance a Taiwanese chipmaker building plants in the US, the Associated Press reported Saturday. Trump on Thursday called the $550 billion "seed money" and that 90% of profits from the money invested would go to the US. "It's not a loan or anything, it's a signing bonus," Trump said. Read more here. More cracks form in the US-Japan trade agreement We detailed earlier (keep scrolling) some initial, if gentle, pushback from the Japanese side on the US portrayal of the countries' trade deal. The Financial Times has a good, detailed look at some of the "cracks" forming: Read more here (subscription required). We detailed earlier (keep scrolling) some initial, if gentle, pushback from the Japanese side on the US portrayal of the countries' trade deal. The Financial Times has a good, detailed look at some of the "cracks" forming: Read more here (subscription required). EU head to meet with Trump this weekend in bid to clinch deal Bloomberg reports that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with President Trump this weekend as he travels to his golf club in Scotland in a bid to secure a trade deal. The meeting will come as the two sides race to secure a deal ahead of next Friday — Trump's self-imposed deadline for 30% tariffs on EU goods to kick in. On Friday, Trump put the odds of a deal at "50-50." From the report: Bloomberg reports that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with President Trump this weekend as he travels to his golf club in Scotland in a bid to secure a trade deal. The meeting will come as the two sides race to secure a deal ahead of next Friday — Trump's self-imposed deadline for 30% tariffs on EU goods to kick in. On Friday, Trump put the odds of a deal at "50-50." From the report: Trump: 'We haven't really had a lot of luck with Canada' President Trump on Friday expressed pessimism on US trade negotiations with Canada, suggesting he may simply impose threatened 35% tariffs on Canadian goods not covered by the existing US-Canada-Mexico trade agreement. "We haven't really had a lot of luck with Canada. I think Canada could be one where there's just a tariff, not really a negotiation," he said. More from Reuters: President Trump on Friday expressed pessimism on US trade negotiations with Canada, suggesting he may simply impose threatened 35% tariffs on Canadian goods not covered by the existing US-Canada-Mexico trade agreement. "We haven't really had a lot of luck with Canada. I think Canada could be one where there's just a tariff, not really a negotiation," he said. More from Reuters: Boston Beer Company says strong profits helped brewer absorb tariff costs The Boston Beer Company (SAM) continues to feel the effects of President Trump's tariffs, but a strong quarter of sales and profit is helping the Samuel Adams brewer absorb some of those cost increases. Boston Beer expects tariffs to add about $15 million to $20 million in costs for the full year. Previously, it modeled tariff costs of $20 million to $30 million. Expect the company to raise prices by 1% to 2% to offset some of the costs as well, executives said. Boston Beer did see tariffs negatively affect its gross margin toward the end of the second quarter, but it benefited from improved brewery efficiencies. For the second quarter, the company reported profits of $5.45 per share on revenue of $625 million, versus estimates for earnings of $4.00 per share on $588 million, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. "Right now, I think we're very happy with the performance," Boston Beer CEO Michael Spillane said on the earnings call. "Not only that, but that's allowed us to offset some of the tariffs that we've seen so far." The Boston Beer Company (SAM) continues to feel the effects of President Trump's tariffs, but a strong quarter of sales and profit is helping the Samuel Adams brewer absorb some of those cost increases. Boston Beer expects tariffs to add about $15 million to $20 million in costs for the full year. Previously, it modeled tariff costs of $20 million to $30 million. Expect the company to raise prices by 1% to 2% to offset some of the costs as well, executives said. Boston Beer did see tariffs negatively affect its gross margin toward the end of the second quarter, but it benefited from improved brewery efficiencies. For the second quarter, the company reported profits of $5.45 per share on revenue of $625 million, versus estimates for earnings of $4.00 per share on $588 million, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. "Right now, I think we're very happy with the performance," Boston Beer CEO Michael Spillane said on the earnings call. "Not only that, but that's allowed us to offset some of the tariffs that we've seen so far." Some headlines from Trump on tariffs this morning Via Bloomberg: Via Bloomberg: Trump: US will sell 'so much' beef to Australia President Trump said on Thursday that the US will sell "so much" beef to Australia, following Canberra relaxing import restrictions. Trump added that other countries who had refused US beef products were on notice. Reuters reports: Read more here. President Trump said on Thursday that the US will sell "so much" beef to Australia, following Canberra relaxing import restrictions. Trump added that other countries who had refused US beef products were on notice. Reuters reports: Read more here. World's No. 3 automaker Kia takes $570M tariff hit in Q2 Reuters reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here. Puma shares dive after warning of full-year loss, US tariff impact Puma ( shares fell 17% on Friday after the sportswear brand said that it now expects an annual loss due to a decline in sales and US tariffs denting profit. Reuters reports: Read more here. Puma ( shares fell 17% on Friday after the sportswear brand said that it now expects an annual loss due to a decline in sales and US tariffs denting profit. Reuters reports: Read more here. LG Energy Solution warns of slowing EV battery demand due to U.S. tariffs, policy headwinds Reuters reports: South Korean battery firm LG Energy ( Solution warned on Friday of a further slowdown in demand by early next year due to U.S. tariffs and policy uncertainties after it posted a quarterly profit jump. Its major customers Tesla (TSLA) and General Motors (GM) warned of fallout from U.S. tariffs and legislation that will end federal subsidies for EV purchases on September 30. "US tariffs and an early end to EV subsidies will put a burden on automakers, potentially leading to vehicle price increases and a slowdown in EV growth in North America," CFO Lee Chang-sil said during a conference call. Read more here. Reuters reports: South Korean battery firm LG Energy ( Solution warned on Friday of a further slowdown in demand by early next year due to U.S. tariffs and policy uncertainties after it posted a quarterly profit jump. Its major customers Tesla (TSLA) and General Motors (GM) warned of fallout from U.S. tariffs and legislation that will end federal subsidies for EV purchases on September 30. "US tariffs and an early end to EV subsidies will put a burden on automakers, potentially leading to vehicle price increases and a slowdown in EV growth in North America," CFO Lee Chang-sil said during a conference call. Read more here. Japan, US differ on how trade-deal profits will be split Japan said Friday that profits from the $550 billion investment deal with the US will be shared based on how much each side contributes. A government official suggested the US will also put in significant funds, but details of the scheme remain unclear. The White House had announced earlier in the week that the US would retain 90% of the profits from the $550 billion US-bound investment and loans that Japan would exchange in return for reduced tariffs on auto and other exports to the US. This would mean that returns would be split 10% for Japan and 90% for the US, according to the White House official, and that it would be "based on the respective levels of contribution and risk borne by each side." Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Japan said Friday that profits from the $550 billion investment deal with the US will be shared based on how much each side contributes. A government official suggested the US will also put in significant funds, but details of the scheme remain unclear. The White House had announced earlier in the week that the US would retain 90% of the profits from the $550 billion US-bound investment and loans that Japan would exchange in return for reduced tariffs on auto and other exports to the US. This would mean that returns would be split 10% for Japan and 90% for the US, according to the White House official, and that it would be "based on the respective levels of contribution and risk borne by each side." Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. US business activity rises; tariffs fuel inflation concerns US business activity rose in July, but companies increased the prices for goods and services, supporting the view from economists that inflation will accelerate in the second half of 2025 and it will mainly be due to tariffs on imports. Reuters reports: Read more here. US business activity rose in July, but companies increased the prices for goods and services, supporting the view from economists that inflation will accelerate in the second half of 2025 and it will mainly be due to tariffs on imports. Reuters reports: Read more here. It sounds like Trump now has a new minimum tariff rate: 15% President Trump set a new rhetorical floor for tariffs on Wednesday night in comments in a shift that raises the president's baseline rate from 10%. Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul writes: Read more here. President Trump set a new rhetorical floor for tariffs on Wednesday night in comments in a shift that raises the president's baseline rate from 10%. Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul writes: Read more here. Keurig Dr. Pepper brewer sales volume drops 22%, CEO says tariff impacts 'will become prominent' Keurig Dr. Pepper CEO Tim Cofer said that tariffs are putting additional pressure on the company in an earnings call Thursday, especially when it comes to its coffee business, which KDP expects to be "subdued" for the remainder of the year. "Commodity inflation will build as we roll into the back half and we roll into our higher cost hedges on green coffee," Cofer said. "The tariff impacts will become prominent. And we all know that tariff situation is a bit fluid." Keurig is one of the biggest coffee importers in the US, along with Starbucks (SBUX) and Nestle (NSRGY). The US sources most of its coffee from Brazil, which is set to face 50% tariffs on its products on Aug. 1, and Colombia, which faces a tariff rate of 10%. In Keurig's coffee business, appliance volume decreased 22.6% during the quarter, reflecting impacts of retailer inventory management, and K-Cup pod volume decreased 3.7%, reflecting category elasticity in response to price increases, the company reported. "Our retail partners will likely continue to manage their inventory levels tightly, in particular on brewers," Cofer commented. "And then finally, you know we did a round of pricing at the beginning of the year. We've announced another round of pricing that will take effect next month, and we'll need to closely monitor how that elasticity evolves." Read more about Keurig earnings here. Keurig Dr. Pepper CEO Tim Cofer said that tariffs are putting additional pressure on the company in an earnings call Thursday, especially when it comes to its coffee business, which KDP expects to be "subdued" for the remainder of the year. "Commodity inflation will build as we roll into the back half and we roll into our higher cost hedges on green coffee," Cofer said. "The tariff impacts will become prominent. And we all know that tariff situation is a bit fluid." Keurig is one of the biggest coffee importers in the US, along with Starbucks (SBUX) and Nestle (NSRGY). The US sources most of its coffee from Brazil, which is set to face 50% tariffs on its products on Aug. 1, and Colombia, which faces a tariff rate of 10%. In Keurig's coffee business, appliance volume decreased 22.6% during the quarter, reflecting impacts of retailer inventory management, and K-Cup pod volume decreased 3.7%, reflecting category elasticity in response to price increases, the company reported. "Our retail partners will likely continue to manage their inventory levels tightly, in particular on brewers," Cofer commented. "And then finally, you know we did a round of pricing at the beginning of the year. We've announced another round of pricing that will take effect next month, and we'll need to closely monitor how that elasticity evolves." Read more about Keurig earnings here. The EU's Trump insurance As my colleague detailed below, EU member states voted to impose tariffs on over $100 billion of US goods from Aug. 7. The Financial Times reported that this move that allows the bloc to impose the levies quickly at any point in the future should its trade relationship with the US take a turn for the worse. From the report: Read more here (subscription required). As my colleague detailed below, EU member states voted to impose tariffs on over $100 billion of US goods from Aug. 7. The Financial Times reported that this move that allows the bloc to impose the levies quickly at any point in the future should its trade relationship with the US take a turn for the worse. From the report: Read more here (subscription required). Europe approves $100B-plus tariff backup plan A report in the Wall Street Journal on Thursday said that the European Union has now approved its retaliatory tariff package on US goods that could start in August if no trade agreement is reached. The EU announced on Wednesday that it will hit the US with 30% tariffs on over $100 billion worth of goods in the event that no deal is made and if President Trump decides to follow through with his threat to impose that rate on most of the bloc's exports after Aug. 1. The US exports, which would include goods such as Boeing (BA) aircraft, US-made cars and bourbon whiskey would all face heavy tariffs that match Trump's 30% threat. The approval of the package comes despite the growing optimism that the US and EU will reach a deal that would put baseline tariffs on the bloc at 15%, matching the level the US applied to Japan. The EU is keen to reach a deal with the US but as a cautionary measure has approved 30% tariffs if a deal is not made. A report in the Wall Street Journal on Thursday said that the European Union has now approved its retaliatory tariff package on US goods that could start in August if no trade agreement is reached. The EU announced on Wednesday that it will hit the US with 30% tariffs on over $100 billion worth of goods in the event that no deal is made and if President Trump decides to follow through with his threat to impose that rate on most of the bloc's exports after Aug. 1. The US exports, which would include goods such as Boeing (BA) aircraft, US-made cars and bourbon whiskey would all face heavy tariffs that match Trump's 30% threat. The approval of the package comes despite the growing optimism that the US and EU will reach a deal that would put baseline tariffs on the bloc at 15%, matching the level the US applied to Japan. The EU is keen to reach a deal with the US but as a cautionary measure has approved 30% tariffs if a deal is not made. Trump tariffs wreaking havoc in Brazil's citrus belt Reuters reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Read more here. South Korea weighs US investment pledge to trim auto tariff Trade discussions between the US and South Korea have led both sides to investigate the idea of creating a fund to invest in American projects. A report said this possible deal would be similar to the agreement Japan struck Tuesday with President Trump. The details of the plan are still not clear, but the US has been seeking pledges totaling hundreds of billions of dollars. However, further talks on a deal between the two sides may have to wait as a trade meeting between the US and South Korea has been postponed after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent became unavailable due to a scheduling conflict, South Korea's Finance Ministry said Thursday. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Trade discussions between the US and South Korea have led both sides to investigate the idea of creating a fund to invest in American projects. A report said this possible deal would be similar to the agreement Japan struck Tuesday with President Trump. The details of the plan are still not clear, but the US has been seeking pledges totaling hundreds of billions of dollars. However, further talks on a deal between the two sides may have to wait as a trade meeting between the US and South Korea has been postponed after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent became unavailable due to a scheduling conflict, South Korea's Finance Ministry said Thursday. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. 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Miami Herald
26 minutes ago
- Miami Herald
Legendary Wall Street forecaster Bob Doll is having his best year
Stock market prognosticators are wrong so frequently that observers can rightly wonder if they're making forecasts using the oldest soothsaying methods, drawing pebbles from a pile, dropping hot wax into water, using random dots on paper or, of course, trying to find something magical in numbers. Yet at the start of every year – and again at the midpoint – countless market watchers take their crack at divining the future, mixing educated conjecture, informed hunches and the occasional WAG (wild-ass guess). Related: Veteran analyst drops updated stock market forecast Measured just about any way possible, most of those projections are wrong. CXO Advisory Group analyzed more than 6,500 forecasts-using methodologies ranging from fundamental to technical analysis-made by 68 experts on the U.S. stock market from 2005 through 2012. The investigation found that the accuracy of the forecasts was below 47% on average. That loses to a coin flip. Bloomberg/Getty Images Bad calls tend to be forgotten quickly, as soon as a forecast is updated based on new information. Winning picks are lionized and celebrated, even though the expert may have less staying power than a bull market rally. Wall Streeters sometimes call the tendency to place too much trust in a guru who made the most recent good call the "Elaine Garzarelli Effect." Garzarelli made her reputation as a Lehman Brothers investment strategist by urging clients to get out of the stock market the week before the Black Monday crash in 1987. That call made her one of the most widely quoted strategists on the Street, but it was also the pinnacle of her success. Whether it was brilliant prescience or dumb luck may be argued forever, but she never really duplicated that success. Garzarelli failed to generate much interest when she tried running mutual funds and a call on stocks being 25% undervalued late in 2007 as the global financial crisis was looming, further dimmed her star. While old-timers remember her name – she runs Garzarelli Research and her newsletter suggests that she is currently bullish on small- and mid-caps plus transportation stocks – she is like many one-time stars, known more for one right call than for being right consistently over years or decades. One Wall Street analyst who hasn't shied away from forecasts -- and has a stellar track record -- is Bob Doll, chief executive and investment officer at Crossmark Global Investors. In a 40-plus-year career, Doll has also been the top equity strategist at Blackrock, Nuveen, Merrill Lynch, and Oppenheimer Funds; at each of those stops, Doll-a regular guest on CNBC, Fox Business, and seemingly all financial media outlets-has started each year with 10 forecasts for the coming 12 months. Related: Top analyst sends message on pending ugly earnings miss (plus one big beat) Doll holds his picks up to a grader each year and historically has been right 72% of the time. That's roughly where he stood with his 2024 prognostications. He has said that his best years ever put him at just above 80%. Entering 2025, Doll was expecting "fewer tailwinds, but more tail risks." His picks reflected that, calling for "some bumps in the road, but some good news and probably more volatility," in an interview on Money Life with Chuck Jaffe that aired in January. Now, seven months later, Doll is getting the results he expected. Eight of Doll's 10 picks tend to be tied to the economy and stock market, with one tied to politics and a wildcard. This is what Doll was calling for entering 2025, and how it's turning out: Slower economic growth as unemployment rises past 4.5%. The jury is out on this one, but if unemployment hits Doll's target – it's currently just north of 4% -- mark this as a inflation that stays above Fed's 2% target, causing the central bank to cut rates less than expected. Barring a Fed surprise, this one's on track.10-year Treasury yields primarily between 4% and 5% with wider credit spreads. The 10-year Treasury has spent the year in that range; credit spreads were up around the tariff tantrum but have narrowed since. But if there's an economic slowdown, they will widen and this one will be a fail to achieve the market's consensus 14% expectation entering the year, and yet every sector has up earnings. This forecast is virtually a lock at this point, even with Doll expecting a second-half slowdown that could hurt some volatility rises, with the VIX average approaching 20. The VIX averaged 18.5 in the first quarter and 24.4 in the second, so this call –and the VIX has only been this high in two of the last 13 calendar years – might have seemed like a longshot but now looks like a sure experience a 10% correction and price/earnings ratios contract. The correction went on the books in April, and P/E ratios are down and appear likely to stay that way. This can be marked in the win portfolios beat cap-weighted portfolios and value beats growth. Both of these conditions are true at the moment; the question is whether that will hold up through energy and consumer staples outperform healthcare, technology and industrials. This looked like a sure thing into June, when the margin of outperformance shrank. If financials weaken, it could put this one in jeopardy; barring that, it looks like another win."Congress passes the Trump tax cut extension, reduces regulation, but tariffs and deportation are less than expected." The tariff forecast here is the one thing where Doll looks like he's wrong and won't recover; by year's end, this one is likely to look half-right, making it the one clear blemish that's efforts make progress but fall far short of $2 trillion in annualized savings. Even Doll acknowledges that this was a softball. In a July 22 interview on Money Life with Chuck Jaffe, Doll acknowledged that he now expects to be right at least 70 percent of the time, "but I wish coming into the year we knew which seven we were going to get right. We could make a lot of money. The problem is you don't know which ones you're going to get right and wrong." As for the rest of 2025, Doll gave three quick assessments for where things stand now: "One, the economy is slowing. We just don't know how much it's going to slow. Two, we're beginning to see tariffs show up in the inflation numbers. We don't know how much. And number three we have this tailwind called [artificial intelligence] which is real and is keeping things moving." Further, Doll said he expects the AI play to broaden out. The tailwind called AI has also been particularly strong at the high end of the market. We all were expecting some measure of breadth this year. Are we going to see the breadth show up at some point? Yeah. Well, it obviously occurred in the first quarter, and then it went away in the second quarter. While Doll noted that tariffs seem to be showing up in slight increases in the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, he did not think they would cause a spike in inflation over the rest of the year. "I don't think [the impact of tariffs on inflation] it's going to be horrible," he said. "It's just going to be there. Remember, only 15% approximately of our GDP is from outside the United States. The other 85 is pretty domestic. So it's limited by how much of the economy it really affects. "Now, having said that, remember the Fed saying 'We've got to get inflation down to 2% and they're struggling at 3% and we're not going to get to 2%. And that means all these people who want the Fed to lower rates are going to have to wait a little bit longer." Related: Top analysts say investors are suckers for bad dividend stocks The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
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