Will a hurricane impact your state in 2025? Odds get an update.
Top experts from Colorado State University released an updated forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season on July 9, and there is a morsel of good news: "We have decreased our forecast slightly," said meteorologist Phil Klotzbach about the updated prediction.
Instead of 9 hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin in 2025, the new forecast calls for 8. An average season sees 7.
"The primary reason for the slight decrease in the outlook is both observed and predicted high levels of Caribbean shear," the forecast said. In this context, forecasters are referring to wind shear, upper level winds that act to tear developing storms apart.
"High levels of Caribbean shear in June/July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons," the forecast said.
But don't let your guard down: Overall, the team still says a total of 16 named tropical storms will form in 2025 (this includes the three that have already formed: Andrea, Barry and Chantal.) Additionally, forecasters wrote, "we anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline."
Hurricane risk by state
The forecast includes a state-by-state look at hurricane risk. Those calculations predict the chances of a storm passing within 50 miles of the state.
Per usual, the highest risk is in Florida, which faces a 90% chance of being impacted by a tropical storm, and a 62% chance of being impacted by a hurricane.
Will your state be impacted by a hurricane? Here's what to know about the risk in 2025, according to the new outlook:
Will a hurricane impact Alabama in 2025?
In Alabama, there's a 64% storm chance and 32% hurricane chance. There is also a 10% chance of a major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of Alabama, according to CSU experts.
Will a hurricane impact Connecticut in 2025?
There is a 25% storm chance and 9% hurricane chance in Connecticut.
More: Tropical Storm Chantal weakens to a depression as it moves across Carolinas
Will a hurricane impact Delaware in 2025?
There is a 26% storm chance and 7% hurricane chance in Delaware.
Will a hurricane impact Florida in 2025?
In Florida, there is a 90% storm chance and 62% hurricane chance. There is also a 33% chance of a major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of the state.
Will a hurricane impact Georgia in 2025?
There is a 69% storm chance and 35% hurricane chance in Georgia.
Will a hurricane impact Louisiana in 2025?
In Louisiana, there is a 72% storm chance and 43% hurricane chance. There is also a 17% chance of a major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of Louisiana.
Will a hurricane impact Maine in 2025?
In Maine, there is a 25% storm chance and 8% hurricane chance.
Will a hurricane impact Maryland in 2025?
In Maryland, there is a 35% storm chance and 13% hurricane chance.
Will a hurricane impact Massachusetts in 2025?
There is a 37% storm chance and 17% hurricane chance in Massachusetts.
Will a hurricane impact Mississippi in 2025?
There is a 59% storm chance and 32% hurricane chance in Mississippi.
Will a hurricane impact New Hampshire in 2025?
In New Hampshire, there is a 21% storm chance and 6% hurricane chance.
Will a hurricane impact New Jersey in 2025?
In New Jersey, there is a 26% storm chance and 8% hurricane chance.
Will a hurricane impact New York in 2025?
There is a 30% storm chance and 11% hurricane chance in New York.
Will a hurricane impact North Carolina in 2025?
There is a 74% storm chance and 43% hurricane chance in North Carolina.
Will a hurricane impact Rhode Island in 2025?
There is a 23% storm chance and 9% hurricane chance in Rhode Island.
Will a hurricane impact South Carolina in 2025?
In South Carolina, there is a 63% storm chance and 33% hurricane chance.
Will a hurricane impact Texas in 2025?
In Texas, there is a 67% storm chance and 41% hurricane chance, as well as an 18% chance of a major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of the state.
Will a hurricane impact Virginia in 2025?
There is a 51% storm chance and 23% hurricane chance in Virginia.
When is the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?
Hurricane season officially began June 1. The six-month season lasts until November 30.
Will a major hurricane make landfall in the US in 2025?
Colorado State researchers said there's a 48% chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline. The average, based on records from 1880 to 2020, is 43%.
A major hurricane has wind speeds of at least 111 mph.
The chances for a landfall are greater along the Gulf Coast (31%) than they are along the East Coast (25%).
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USA Today
15 hours ago
- USA Today
See how the Texas floods unfolded and why Camp Mystic was in a hazardous location
More than 120 people have died and at least 160 others are still missing after horrific floods struck central Texas over the July Fourth weekend. Heavy rainfall, rocky terrain, and the nearby Gulf climate combined to quickly turn the Guadalupe River into a destructive torrent across Kerr County and the Texas Hill Country. The swath of land through which the Guadalupe passes – including Camp Mystic, where at least 27 children and counselors were killed – has earned the nickname "flash flood alley," and hundreds have died there over the years. As the search for victims goes on, the question people are asking is: How could this happen? It began with moisture from Tropical Storm Barry that drifted over Texas in the first few days of July, said Bob Fogarty, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio office. There, it collided with an upper-level low pressure system, which parked it in place. A weather balloon launched by the weather service showed near-record moisture in the upper atmosphere, said Victor Murphy, a recently retired National Weather Service meteorologist in Texas. With enormous amount of moisture providing fuel, the winds served as the match that caused the storms to explode. Alan Gerard, a recently retired storm specialist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told USA TODAY several factors converged in one of the worst possible flood locations to create a 'horrific' scenario that dropped up to 16 inches of rain over the larger region from July 3 to July 5. Data from Floodbase, a flood tracking company shows how the deluge pulsed through the watershed for days, bringing death and destruction in its wake. Can't see our graphics? Click here to reload the page. Early on July 4, the Guadalupe River at Kerrville was flowing at 3 cubic feet per second. At that rate, it would fill an Olympic-size pool in eight hours. But soon after sunrise, 7:30 a.m., it was gushing at 134,000 cubic feet per second, a rate would fill the same pool in under a second. The river height surged from less than 12 inches to more than 34 feet, the greatest recorded there since recordkeeping began in 1997. That discharge was the second-highest ever recorded by the stream monitor, with data going back to mid-1986. But data between 6:15 a.m. and 7:30 a.m, around the time of the peak, hasn't been released − the event was so extreme that hydrologists from the U.S. Geological Survey are still reviewing it. Kerrville is on a list of sites where crews will be conducting what are called indirect measurements based on high-water marks, according to the USGS. Terrain and timing were the biggest factors in the storms, according to Gerard and Murphy. "The whole area is very prone to slow-moving thunderstorms, especially in the summer months,' says Dan DePodwin, vice president of forecast operations at AccuWeather. "The reason for that is the jet stream, a fast-moving river of air at about the level that planes fly, that moves northward in the summer," said DePodwin. And because of its proximity to the Gulf, the region gets "very high rainfall rates," most often during summer, adds Gerard. Geology is another key factor that has earned flash flood alley its nickname. The Balcones Escarpment, running roughly parallel to Interstate 35, is a line of cliffs and steep hills created by a geologic fault, says Hatim Sharif, a hydrologist and civil engineer at the University of Texas, San Antonio. Hill Country is a 'semi-arid area with soils that don't soak up much water, so the water sheets off quickly and the shallow creeks can rise fast,' Sharif says. Texas Public Radio reports that limestone in the area prevents rainwater from soaking into the ground. Instead, the water rushes into valleys. All of these factors and more were present at Camp Mystic. "The terrain is complex or varied," DePodwin says. "So you get water channeling really quickly into narrow areas − in this case the river and river basin. That then obviously flows somewhere, in this case downhill and toward the camp." Camp Mystic is a 700-acre private Christian summer camp for girls about 6 miles south of the town of Hunt in Kerr County. That's in Texas Hill Country, an 11-million-acre region of central-west Texas. Situated between the banks of the Guadalupe River and its Cypress Creek tributary, the camp had just begun its monthlong term for hundreds of girls. The original camp sits alongside the Guadalupe River, and a second camp nearby opened near Cypress Lake in 2020. The camps are bisected by Cypress Creek. Among the 160 missing in the floods are five campers and a counselor from Camp Mystic, which counted at least 27 children and staff among the dead. Many of the camp's structures exist within flood hazard areas defined by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and new buildings have been built within those boundaries over the years. Over the course both of 30 years, these areas would have a 26% cumulative chance of flooding. Some are in an area known as a regulatory floodway, which must be kept unobstructed for water to move freely during a flood. The camp lost electricity in the early hours of July 4 as heavy rainfall knocked out power. At least 27 campers, some as young as 8, were swept away in the raging waters. According to The Washington Post, many of the girls from a cabin known as the Bubble Inn were lost. The Post reported water came in from two directions, the south fork of the Guadalupe River and from a creek nearby, which created a swirl around the Bubble and Twins cabins. The camp has a storied history in the state, and it has hosted girls from some of Texas' most famous political families. About 700 children were at the camp when the floods struck, said Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. U.S. Coast Guard Petty Officer Scott Ruskan, an aviation survival technician 3rd class stationed in Corpus Christi, saved 165 people from rising floodwaters in Kerr County, USA TODAY reported. An MH-65 Dolphin helicopter crew and an HC-144 Ocean Sentry Aircraft crew were launched from Air Station Corpus Christi, along with an Air Station Houston MH-65 Dolphin helicopter crew to aid in rescue operations, the Coast Guard said. The Coast Guard conducted 12 flights to the area and rescued 15 campers from Camp Mystic, the Guard said. The Texas Army and Air National Guard rescued at least 525 people from flooded areas, the Texas National Guard reported. More than 360 people were evacuated by UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters, the Guard said. Another 159 people were rescued by land. A similar tragedy known as the Guadalupe River Flood struck Camp Mystic in July 1987. Ten teens died and 33 were injured when a bus and van carrying evacuees were stranded in floodwaters. Flash flooding, 'a rapid rise of water along a stream or in a low-lying urban area,' is the leading storm-related killer in the United States, according to the National Weather Service. Why? 'Most people fail to realize the power of water,' the weather service says. Six inches of rapidly moving water can knock you off your feet. According to water flowing at just 6 mph exerts the same force per unit area as air blowing at EF-5 tornado wind speeds. Water moving at 25 mph has the pressure equivalent of wind blowing at 790 mph, faster than the speed of sound. One-fifth of all direct deaths in flash floods in the full years of 1996-2024 in the United States have been in Texas, a USA TODAY data analysis shows. These are the states with the highest number of fatalities among the 1,923 total deaths: Texas reported 68 direct deaths from flash floods in 2017, which makes 2025 the deadliest year for flash flood deaths for the state in recent decades. Of the 120 deaths in the July 4 storms, 96 were in Kerr County, where the toll includes at least 36 children, USA TODAY reported. Counties with reported fatalities: Ten states, from Massachusetts to California, have sent specially trained teams – including swift-water rescue crews and trained FEMA personnel – to help with recovery, and two other states have crews on the way, USA TODAY reported. Hopes of finding survivors have diminished with each passing day, county officials said July 10. Authorities say they haven't made a "live rescue" since the day of the flood. Gov. Greg Abbott has declared a disaster in 15 Texas counties. Since the flood, many have wondered what could have been done to mitigate the loss of life. The timing of alerts and lack of sirens has been scrutinized. Reporting has shown that the the state's Division of Emergency Management denied Kerr County's requests a decade ago for a $1 million grant to improve its flood warning system. But sirens and alerts are only part of a layered approach to flood warning and mitigation, DePodwin told USA TODAY: "The questions that will have to be answered are: How can we ensure people receive warnings? What type of actions were taken or not taken by local emergency managers, by local officials, by organizers of events? What plans were in place ahead of time? What thought had been given to flood risks in different parts of Hill Country? A perfect weather forecast is only good if it inspires action." CONTRIBUTING: Janet Loehrke, Suhail Bhat, Doyle Rice, Dinah Voyles Pulver, Rick Jervis, Eduardo Cuevas and Kathryn Palmer. SOURCES: USA TODAY Network reporting and research; Reuters; National Weather Service; AccuWeather; Nearmap; FEMA; First Street. Read more: These Texas 'flash flood alley' towns have suffered most in horrific flooding What Texas cities flooded? Here's where the most rain fell over the weekend Warnings for deadly Texas flash flooding came with little time to act Terrain and timing conspired to cause 'horrifying' Texas rainfall With just word-of-mouth warning, a man raced 25 miles to save guests at his Texas RV park This is a developing story which may be updated.
Yahoo
a day ago
- Yahoo
How The Deadly Texas Flooding Unfolded
The deadly Texas floods that occurred over the July Fourth Weekend happened fast and in the dark of night. Two variables that only made a horrific situation even worse. The images and stories out of Texas are heartbreaking to say the least and they have many of us scratching our heads and wondering how this could have happened. You can read the latest on the situation in Texas here, but we will try to break down the details of what unfolded in the wee hours of Friday morning, July 4th. There were several weather features at work during the week leading up to the catastrophic flooding that all worked in tandem to create this nightmare situation. 1 - Upper level disturbance: There was an upper level disturbance that pushed into the Hill Country from West Texas. This area of low pressure brought with it deep moisture, which set the stage for a very saturated environment to produce heavy downpours and torrential rain. 2 - Remnants from Barry: While the tropical moisture from Barry isn't 100% to blame for what happened in Texas, the remnant low definitely played a big part. Barry was a short-lived tropical system that made landfall in Mexico on Sunday, June 29th. The storm's lingering moisture has been pumping into the southern U.S. ever since and has helped enhance the instability across the Lone Star state. 3 - Low level jet stream: This is a weather feature located a few thousand feet above the ground that was aimed right at the Hill Country. This weather setup allowed for a constant stream of moisture to feed into the area as well. This also enhanced the rainfall and moisture in the area. As the rain stalled over Central Texas, the rate of rainfall reached four inches an hour at times. The rate of rainfall (how much rain falls in a given time period) and the fact that the rain never let up for hours on end, aided in the development of this catastrophic scenario that set up. The geography of the Hill Country only contributes to flooding like this. The hills create a funnel, so all the rain that falls, races down the hillsides and into the rivers below. All of this water flowing into the river beds at once causes them to rise sharply. In the case of the Guadalupe River, it rose 26 feet in 45 minutes. According to the Weather Prediction Center, more than 20 inches of rain fell in Streeter, Texas, which is north of Kerrville. In a tweet, they show how Texas is no stranger to double digit rainfall totals caused from tropical systems. The heart-breaking images like the ones we are seeing come out of Texas has reminded me of how quickly these events can unfold. I'll never forget Memorial Day weekend in 2015, covering the deadly floods from Wimberly, Texas. The Blanco River rose 45 feet in one hour, killing 13 people and destroying 400 homes. Always remember, It's extremely important to stay weather aware and have a way to get weather alerts, and follow instructions from emergency officials should they be given. Jennifer Gray is a weather and climate writer for She has been covering some of the world's biggest weather and climate stories for the last two decades.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Yahoo
NC city has less than 2 days' worth of clean drinking water left after Chantal
Mebane residents were told Wednesday to ration their water usage, with the city down to less than two days' worth of available clean drinking water. The alert went out shortly after 10 a.m. as the city declared a CodeRED emergency, according to a news release. The city, which lies in Alamance and Orange counties, gets its water from the Graham-Mebane Water Treatment Plant. The plant was damaged during the flooding from remnants of Tropical Depression Chantal on Sunday. 'The restrictions could remain in place for multiple days until the Water Treatment Plant is producing potable drinking water; all industries, businesses, offices, and non-residential units should cease operations,' the release said. Grocery stores, health care facilities and drug stores are exempted from the restrictions. Under the restrictions, residents and businesses can only use water for drinking when bottled water isn't available, required medical use and limited restroom use, not including showers. The restriction plan will be enforced by city officials and local law enforcement, according to the release, though it's not clear how they'll do so. Residents are being asked to buy and use bottled water for the foreseeable future. The city did not have an estimate Wednesday for when the plant would resume operations. Mebane officials will share information on distribution sites for bottled water as soon as possible, according to the release. In the Spotlight designates ongoing topics of high interest that are driven by The News & Observer's focus on accountability reporting.
