Which teams with strong starts will fade before the MLB playoffs?

New York Times

16-05-2025

We're just over a quarter of the way through the MLB season, and while some teams have already surpassed our expectations, nothing is decided in May.
For ballclubs with postseason aspirations, it's the results in the fall that truly matter.
On the latest episode of 'Rates & Barrels,' Joe Sheehan joined Derek VanRiper and Eno Sarris to break down which early overachievers will likely fade from the playoff picture as the season wears on. Watch the discussion below.
A partial transcript has been edited for clarity and length. The full episode is available on YouTube below or in the 'Rates & Barrels' feed on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Derek: The question that Eno just took off the rundown without actually asking the question (laughs) … was which team today has the best record that won't make the playoffs? I'm assuming the Giants are your pick for that, then?
Eno: Yeah, they are, and I'll run you through my reasoning for that real quick. I just think this offense is over its skis, and it's literally over its skis in terms of projections. They're scoring 4.6 runs per game, and they're projected to score 4.25, so they're over their skis in terms of projections. Then as I look around at that offense, I think that Tyler Fitzgerald is going to regress from where he is right now, and even though I do think there'll be some positive regression from Willy Adames, I think that Heliot Ramos may also have some regression built in. Mike Yastrzemski is also around 31 percent better than league average right now. And I know there's probably some mechanical changes and stuff, but at his age and given his track record, I just don't necessarily believe in him. We've had this famous thing with Wilmer Flores about how I said he was done, and then he hit seven homers in around three weeks. But I see age coming in, and it's just not an oppressive offense for me. They can get it done on pitching and maybe they'll squeak in, but it's not an impressive offense for me.
Advertisement
Joe: I agree with you. I can see them continuing the run prevention, I love the way they've managed Hayden Birdsong, Kyle Harrison might be up in that multi-inning role again, and I like the way Bob Melvin has run that staff. But I just think with the talent base in the offense and when you look at that division, they're going to only be able to really play for the wild card, and the NL wild card is just so competitive. So I'm with you, and even though they're not my pick, I agree that they're going to be one of the teams most likely to slip.
Derek: Yeah, they're probably one of the first teams out when the dust clears in the NL playoff picture this fall. Who's your pick for this one then, Joe? The team that has the best record today that will fall short of the postseason.
Joe: I'm following the numbers here. And as you guys know, I worked with Clay Davenport at Prospectus for a lot of years and he still runs Claydavenport.com, which calculates third-order records. Third-order records take into account how well you've played, so your run differential, the teams you've played and what your underlying performance is contributing to runs. In other words, if you've hit well with runners in scoring position, that's likely to not be sustained.
So if you look at the third-order record, the team that has the largest gap between its actual performance and its underlying performance is the Guardians. They're 24-17 (at the time of recording) to start the year, but when you look at Clay's numbers he's got them more as a 16-25 team. He just doesn't think they're good at all. That's a seven-game difference and this is consistent with last year as well. Last year they didn't show up well, and of course they had one of the all-time bullpen seasons and were actually able to carry that. But there was a combination of things that got three AL Central teams into the playoffs last year, it was a unique year, we'll just call it that. The Guardians still benefit from playing in that division and playing the White Sox a lot, but the underlying performance just isn't there. The bullpen was always going to regress — we've seen that — and the defense was considerably worse last year. The numbers that Clay publishes are picking up on this stuff, so I've got the Guardians not just missing the playoffs, but they might even be sellers by the deadline.
Advertisement
Derek: It would be a hard turn from where they are right now, but they have tricked us so many times on this show. We've been counting them out for years and waiting for them to have to do an actual rebuild. Some of it is the division and some of it is finding different ways to win. I can't even explain how they do it, but it does seem more flimsy than usual, looking at that roster right now.
You can listen to full episodes of Rates & Barrels for free on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, and watch on YouTube.
(Photo of Willy Adames and Wilmer Flores: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)