Trump's July 9 tariff deadline looms: Which countries will get a deal?

First Post

2 days ago

As US President Donald Trump's July 9 tariff deadline nears, countries including Japan, India, and the EU are scrambling to strike last-minute trade deals. Washington could either finalise limited agreements, extend the tariff pause, or reimpose steep duties — some as high as 50 per cent — on economies it sees as uncooperative. Which nations will escape the tariff hike? read more
US President Donald Trump holds a chart next to US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick as Trump delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, DC, US, April 2, 2025. File Image/Reuters
As the July 9 deadline approaches for United States President Donald Trump to reimpose sweeping tariffs on multiple economies — including Japan and the European Union — several countries are still racing to secure agreements that could shield them from the harshest penalties.
These tariffs stem from a package first announced in April, with Trump citing concerns over the absence of 'reciprocity' in America's trade relationships.
Initially, a 10 per cent tariff was applied to most trading partners, with even steeper, customised duties set to follow for countries where the US runs large trade deficits.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
However, the full implementation was delayed until July to allow time for negotiations.
Experts predict that countries will likely face one of three scenarios: concluding a preliminary agreement, obtaining a temporary reprieve from increased tariffs, or dealing with a sharp rise in levies.
Lots of 'Framework' deals coming up
'There will be a group of deals that we will land before July 9,' Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on CNBC last Friday.
Officials have not specified which countries fall under this category, but Bessent revealed that Washington has been aiming to finalise arrangements with around 18 major partners.
'Vietnam, India and Taiwan remain promising candidates for a deal,' Wendy Cutler, vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI), told AFP.
If these countries do not reach a deal, Vietnam's reciprocal tariff would jump from 10 per cent to 46 per cent, India's to 26 per cent, and Taiwan's to 32 per cent.
Josh Lipsky, international economics chair at the Atlantic Council, noted that Indian negotiators recently extended their US visit, saying it 'seems like a frontrunner.'
'Japan was in that category, but things have set back a little,' Lipsky added, pointing to Trump's criticism earlier this week accusing Japan of being unwilling to open its rice market to US exports.
Analysts caution that these agreements are unlikely to be comprehensive trade deals, given the complex nature of such negotiations.
So far, since April, Washington has only finalised an agreement with the UK and a temporary arrangement with China aimed at reducing reciprocal tariffs.
Extended pause depends on Trump
Bessent has also indicated that countries showing genuine effort in talks might retain the 10 per cent tariff rate for now.
However, whether an extension on avoiding higher tariffs is granted will ultimately depend on Trump, he added.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
'With a new government, (South) Korea looks well positioned to secure an extension,' ASPI's Cutler said.
Lipsky anticipates that several nations will fall into this category, benefiting from a delay in heightened tariffs until Labor Day on September 1.
Bessent previously said that Washington could complete its trade deal agenda by Labor Day, implying more deals could be finalised even if talks continue beyond July.
Tariff reimposition for uncooperative nations
For countries deemed uncooperative, Bessent has cautioned that the US could revert to the more severe tariff levels announced earlier, ranging from 11 per cent up to 50 per cent.
Cutler noted that 'Japan's refusal to open its rice market, coupled with the US resistance to lowering automotive tariffs, may lead to the reimposition of Japan's 24 per cent reciprocal tariff.'
On Tuesday, Trump remarked that a trade deal with Japan is unlikely and the country could face tariffs of '30 per cent, 35 per cent, or whatever the number is that we determine.'
Lipsky believes the European Union also risks seeing its tariffs reset to either the 20 per cent rate proposed in April or the steeper 50 per cent rate recently mentioned by Trump.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
Digital policy is expected to be a friction point in US-EU talks.
Trump recently announced that trade negotiations with Canada — which is not subject to the July 9 deadline — would be cancelled in response to Ottawa's digital services tax. Canada has since agreed to drop the measure.
This week, EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic is visiting Washington in hopes of securing a deal, as the European Commission reviews early drafts of US proposals currently under discussion.
Also Watch:
With inputs from AFP