Nuclear radiation from Iran could reach Baghdad and Sulaymaniyah
Baghdad, located approximately 933 kilometers from the Fordow nuclear site, and Sulaymaniyah—only 775 kilometers away—could face serious environmental risks if a nuclear catastrophe were to occur.
In response, Iraq's nuclear regulatory authority has joined with several Arab nations to establish a unified crisis response unit. A recent virtual meeting, attended by representatives from Jordan, Lebanon, Yemen, Kuwait, Libya, Bahrain, Tunisia, and Sudan, resulted in the decision to create a regional operations center for real-time surveillance and emergency coordination.
Experts warn that while the immediate blast zone could reach up to 20 kilometers, radioactive contamination could spread as far as 1,600 kilometers.
Given their proximity, Iraq—especially its northern regions—would likely be among the most impacted.
According to The New Arab, the destruction of Iran's nuclear infrastructure could surpass the environmental devastation caused by the Chernobyl disaster.
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The following report is now a complimentary offering from MEMRI's Jihad and Terrorism Threat Monitor (JTTM). For JTTM subscription information, click here. Since Ahmed Al-Sharaa – who formerly led Syrian jihadi group Hay'at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) under the nom de guerre Abu Muhammad Al-Joulani [i.e. Abu Muhammad from the Golan] – became Syria's interim leader when a coalition of militant and jihadi factions under his command toppled the Assad regime on December 8, 2024, his name has remained in headlines across global news outlets. There has been much discussion of the beliefs and stances of Al-Sharaa, who headed Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat Al-Nusra (JN) for years. While it is impossible to say definitively what Al-Sharaa really thinks or predict his future moves, this report aims to shed light on the former jihadi leader by providing a brief biography and review of his statements prior and subsequent to the fall of the Assad regime, based on material gathered in real time by MEMRI JTTM staff. This report will refer to Al-Sharaa as Al-Joulani when discussing the period before he returned to using his given name. Serving as Syria's de facto leader since December 8, Al-Sharaa was formally appointed interim president on January 29, 2025 at the Conference Announcing the Victory of the Syrian Revolution. There, the formal dissolution of all rebel factions, including HTS, and their incorporation into the Syrian armed forces, was also announced.[1] Al-Sharaa delivering his speech at the Conference Announcing the Victory of the Syrian Revolution Al-Joulani's Early Life Al-Joulani began officially using his given name on December 5, 2024, during the offensive that toppled the Assad regime, although the name Ahmed Husayn Al-Sharaa had already been publicized by HTS supporters in June 2021. Before that, Al-Joulani's true identity was unknown, and multiple rumors circulated about it and his life story. The name Ahmed Al-Sharaa was mentioned as one possibility as early as 2016,[2] along with other narratives later proven false, such as an Al-Jazeera claim that his real name was Usamah Al-'Absi Al-Wahedi and he was a native of Al-Shuhayl in eastern Syria's Deir Al-Zour Governorate.[3] The following biographical information is based on an interview Al-Joulani gave to Martin Smith, a correspondent for the U.S.-based Public Broadcasting Service (PBS) television network, in January 2021, which was released in June of that year.[4] An infographic poster released by pro-HTS Telegram channels shortly afterward featured nearly identical details.[5] Giving his real name as Ahmed Husayn Al-Sharaa, Al-Joulani told Smith that his family stems from "the now-occupied Golan Heights," from the village of Jibbeen, from which his paternal grandfather was displaced after Israel captured the area in 1967. His father Husayn was an economist influenced by the Arab nationalist ideas of Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser, who worked as a government employee for the Syrian Ministry of Oil but later left the public sector due to political disagreements. His mother was a conservative woman who taught geography at a girls' elementary school.[6] Farouk Al-Sharaa, Syria's former foreign minister and one of the country's two vice presidents, is reportedly a close relative.[7] Al-Joulani was born in 1982 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where his father was working in the oil sector, and at the age of seven returned to Syria with his family, growing up in Damascus' Mezzeh neighborhood, where he worked in a shop belonging to his father. He majored in "open education" at Damascus University's Faculty of Media, but his departure for Iraq in 2003 prevented him from completing his studies. According to an anti-HTS Telegram channel, Al-Joulani was not raised as a devout Muslim and in 2000 had an Alawite girlfriend, but was rejected by her family when he asked for her hand in marriage.[8] Al-Joulani's Radicalization And Travel To Iraq For Jihad According to HTS supporters, Al-Joulani's "life was changed" when an acquaintance convinced him to regularly attend Friday prayers at the mosque, ultimately leading him to study Islamic subjects under a sheikh. Al-Joulani told Smith that the Second Palestinian Intifada, which began in September 2000, influenced him to start "thinking about how to fulfill my duties defending a people who are oppressed by occupiers and invaders." After Al-Qaeda's September 11, 2001 attacks on America, he grew more religious and began wearing a beard and jellabiya and attending secret religious discussions in Damascus. Al-Joulani arrived in Iraq several weeks before the U.S. invasion in March 2003 and joined a "small group" based in Mosul, Saraya Al-Mujahideen, which later came under the command of Abu Mus'ab Al-Zarqawi – the infamous Jordanian-born jihadi leader who eventually affiliated with Al-Qaeda and formed the precursor to the Islamic State (ISIS) – although Al-Joulani insisted that he never met Al-Zarqawi personally. Al-Joulani acknowledged that he was captured and spent time in the custody of American and Iraqi forces, while additional details of his incarceration were revealed by Telegram channels linked to Iraqi militias in April 2025.[9] Al-Joulani was captured by the Americans on May 14, 2005, masquerading as an Iraqi from Mosul named Amjad Muzaffar Husayn 'Ali Al-Nu'aymi, and spent almost five years in Camp Bucca in southern Iraq, where over 14,000 detainees were held at its peak, including several who later became senior Al-Qaeda and ISIS leaders. In April 2010, he was transferred to Iraqi government custody and imprisoned in Al-Taji. HTS supporters claimed that while in prison, Al-Joulani gave classes on tafsir (Quranic exegesis) and the Arabic language, worked to "correct many incorrect concepts" held by some of the prisoners, and discussed his "analyses and predictions of changes that might occur in the region in the future." He was released on March 3, 2011 due to insufficient evidence and no outstanding warrants; subsequently, he assumed command of Al-Qaeda-affiliated Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) forces in Mosul. A photo of Al-Joulani taken while he was in custody in Iraq Al-Joulani further claimed that while in Camp Bucca, he wrote a 50-page document describing how to transfer jihad to Syria. After the Syrian Civil War began in 2011, he sent this document to Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, who founded ISIS in 2014 and at the time was the emir of ISI, and proposed establishing a jihadi group in Syria. Al-Joulani met with Al-Baghdadi and asked for a hundred men to accompany him to Syria, but due to opposition from some ISI leaders, Al-Baghdadi agreed to send Al-Joulani with only six companions, who crossed the border wearing suicide belts in case they were caught. Al-Baghdadi also reportedly paid the men $50,000 to $60,000 a month for six to seven months. Founding Of Jabhat Al-Nusra (JN) Upon his return to Syria, Al-Joulani founded Jabhat Al-Nusra li-Ahl Al-Sham (The Front for the Defense of the Syrian People) – generally known as Jabhat Al-Nusra (JN) – in early 2012.[10] In December 2012, the U.S. State Department designated JN a foreign terrorist organization, describing the group as an alias for Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI).[11] The black jihadi flag used by JN. Al-Joulani publicly pledged allegiance in April 2013 to Al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri, making JN Al-Qaeda's official affiliate in Syria.[12] The circumstances of Al-Joulani's ties to Al-Baghdadi are still disputed among supporters of ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and HTS. ISIS supporters claim that Al-Baghdadi sent Al-Joulani to establish a branch of ISI in Syria, and accuse Al-Sharaa of violating his oath to Al-Baghdadi by establishing a separate organization, while HTS supporters deny that Al-Joulani ever swore allegiance to the founder of ISIS.[13] In July 2016, Al-Joulani severed his group's ties with Al-Qaeda and renamed JN as Jabhat Fath Al-Sham (The Front to Conquer Syria – JFS). In the video announcing the rebranding, Al-Joulani stated that JFS had "no affiliation with any foreign entity" and expressed willingness to cooperate with other Syrian groups. This marked a shift in the group's orientation, away from Al-Qaeda's ideal of global jihad to a more local effort to liberate Syria from the Assad regime.[14] The JFS logo Al-Joulani announces the establishment of JFS in 2016. JN Splits With Al-Qaeda And Becomes HTS In January 2017, JFS joined with several other Islamist rebel groups to form HTS.[15] Al-Joulani was initially the deputy leader of JFS, with former Ahrar Al-Sham leader Abu Jaber Al-Sheikh appointed the group's leader, but in October, Al-Joulani became JFS leader upon Al-Sheikh's resignation.[16] The HTS flag (left) and logo (right) Abu Jaber Al-Sheikh It became clear, in the years following JN's rebranding, that – counter to the initial beliefs of some analysts – this move reflected a real change, in which the group abandoned the Al-Qaeda ideal of global jihad and restricted its focus to waging jihad only in Syria, with the ultimate goal of "liberating" the country from the Assad regime. As suggested by a series of 2022-2023 Telegram posts by Iraqi-born Maysarah Al-Jubouri aka Abu Mariyah Al-Qahtani, a slain senior Iraqi-born HTS religious official, this shift was a tactical one based on the belief that a state of warfare with all countries is unsustainable and that Muslims' interests require the formation of alliances with states.[17] In May 2018, the U.S. State Department designated HTS a foreign terrorist organization, describing the group as an Al-Qaeda affiliate, despite Al-Joulani's assertion that he had severed ties with Al-Qaeda. HTS issued a statement protesting the designation, declaring that HTS posed no threat to other countries, and urging international bodies to pressure the U.S. to reverse its decision.[18] HTS Clashes With Rival Jihad Groups HTS' hostility to rival jihadi groups preceded its capture of Damascus by years, dating back to the period of its affiliation with Al-Qaeda as JN. It should be noted that HTS clashed with a wide array of rebel factions, both those more extreme and more moderate than itself, based more on a desire to consolidate power than on ideological grounds, ultimately establishing itself as the most powerful faction in the rebel stronghold of Idlib in northwestern Syria.[19] After JN differentiated itself from ISIS, the tension between the two groups gradually escalated until full-blown warfare erupted between them.[20] In the HTS-controlled Idlib area, ISIS attacks and assassinations targeting HTS, as well as HTS arrests and executions of ISIS members, were at their peak in 2018, but the ISIS presence in Idlib subsequently dwindled.[21] Following HTS' dissociation from Al-Qaeda, the global jihadi organization established another affiliate in Syria, Tanzim Hurras Al-Din (Guardians of the Religion Organization), created by the merger of several factions in February 2018.[22] HTS clashed intermittently with Hurras Al-Din from as early as November 2017, when it arrested senior Al-Qaeda commanders.[23] The two jihadi groups later reconciled and launched a joint offensive against the Assad regime in November 2019.[24] However, armed clashes again erupted between HTS and the Al-Qaeda affiliate in June 2020, ultimately leading to the effective elimination of Hurras Al-Din.[25] Hurras Al-Din claimed its last operation in August 2021,[26] and formally announced its dissolution on January 28, 2025, alleging that the Assad regime's fall had made its jihad unnecessary.[27] The Hurras Al-Din logo HTS' military campaign against its jihadi rivals was accompanied by a media campaign rooted in Salafi-jihadi ideology legitimizing the crackdown. As early as 2014, JN justified its fight against ISIS by branding the latter an extremist Kharijite[28] group.[29] Later, when HTS fought against Hurras Al-Din in 2020, it justified this campaign by accusing Hurras Al-Din members of being extremists who are excessive in declaring takfir[30] on other Muslims; alleging that they are responsible for assassinations, kidnappings, and robberies, and claiming they cooperate with ISIS cells.[31] HTS also outlawed the activity of rival factions which did not belong to an operations room under its aegis, Al-Fath Al-Mubin (Clear Conquest), arguing that such groups' presence threatened rebel unity and hindered efforts to defend the Idlib area.[32] HTS' Gradual Ideological Evolution While Al-Sharaa's moderate statements and actions since the fall of the Assad regime have surprised some observers expecting the former Al-Qaeda commander to pursue a more hardline approach, most of these actions are modeled on the approach HTS adopted since 2017, long before the regime's collapse. Gradually modifying its ideology and methodology towards moderate pragmatism, HTS legitimized its actions based on Islamic teachings while continuing to identify as a Salafi-jihadi group. Prior to toppling the Assad regime, HTS disavowed global jihad in favor of more limited goals to liberate Syria;[33] abandoned public executions and floggings for violators of shari'a;[34] cancelled its hisbah morality police;[35] and softened its treatment of non-Sunni minorities, by granting Christians freedom of worship and not imposing the jizyah tax on them, while making overtures to Christian and Druze leaders.[36] The group also gradually acquiesced to the presence of Turkish and Russian forces in Idlib – although Salafi-jihadis generally consider these countries' forces infidel invaders who must be fought – and expressed support for the Turkish state and government.[37] These concessions made during the group's phase as a jihadi insurgency in rebel-controlled Idlib echo similar moves on a larger scale that followed the Assad regime's fall. Al-Joulani meeting with Idlib Christians in July 2022 The group initially employed suicide bombers like other jihadi organizations.[38] However, after its last SVBIED attack, perpetrated in February 2020, the group retired its use of "martyrdom-seekers" by September of that year, as part of its efforts to transform itself from a terrorist insurgent movement into an organized army, retraining these operatives to perform other types of military operations.[39] Aerial footage of an HTS suicide bombing, from a May 2022 official HTS video Nevertheless, during its jihadi phase, HTS remained committed to jihad and the implementation of shari'a, and opposed to democracy, using Salafi-jihadi sectarian terminology by pejoratively referring to the Assad regime and to Shi'ites as "Nusayris" and "Rafidites," and declaring the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) "atheists." The group's clerics similarly pronounced takfir on Syrian soldiers, declaring them apostates whose lives are forfeit.[40] It should be noted, however, that as early as 2015, Al-Joulani declared his group would not target Alawite or Druze civilians, despite describing them as heretics.[41] Al-Sharaa has further moderated his statements since receiving increased international legitimacy after capturing Damascus and becoming Syria's de facto leader, although the extent to which he and his inner circle have abandoned their jihadi beliefs remains unclear. Since toppling the Assad regime, Al-Sharaa has made no public mention of jihad, has committed to holding "free and fair" elections for president, ordered the drafting of a constitution that declared Islamic shari'a the "main source of legislation" – rather than "sole source," as jihadi hardliners demanded – and guaranteed women's rights and freedom of expression.[42] Al-Sharaa and his group reached out to Syria's minorities, including Kurds, Alawites, Shi'ites, and Druze, at the start of the offensive that toppled Assad, promising not to target any group based on its "sectarian or ethnic affiliation" and to grant them the same rights of citizenship granted to members of the Sunni majority.[43] While Al-Sharaa's government has not explicitly disavowed the goal of implementing shari'a, it has not imposed it more than other Muslim countries, such as Turkey. Bars continue to sell alcohol in Damascus; music has not been banned; women circulate freely without a hijab; and non-Muslims are not forced to pay the jizyah tribute and are allowed to practice their religious rituals openly.[44] After Al-Sharaa ordered a woman in December 2023 to cover her hair before being photographed with him, his government prominently posted photos of the Syrian leader meeting with uncovered women, both foreigners and Syrians.[45] Al-Sharaa has been photographed at multiple public events attended by mixed gatherings of men and women; his own wife, Latifah Al-Duroubi, has attended some wearing a hijab, with her face uncovered.[46] Statements and actions such as embracing democratic elections and the nation-state concept, tolerating non-Sunni minorities – especially esotericist sects such as Alawites and Druze – and allowing them to worship freely, would be anathema to most Salafi-jihadis and run counter to explicit statements made by Al-Sharaa and HTS clerics only a few years ago. While the new Syrian government has explicitly grounded some of these stances in Islamic sources – and clerics supporting it have likely provided oral justification for the rest – these justifications do not pass muster in Salafi-jihadi circles. Some actions, such as refraining from fully implementing shari'a and instituting hisbah, tolerating "apostate" sects such as Alawites and Druze, and holding gatherings not segregated by sex, have been harshly criticized by Syrian jihadi clerics, including some who otherwise support the new government.[47] It should be noted that many of these developments toward moderation, both during HTS' jihadi period and in its current phase as Syria's interim government, were taken without public fanfare, precluding criticism by hardline rivals while freeing the group of the need to justify these concessions to its jihadi supporters. The failure of Al-Sharaa and the clerics close to him to repudiate many of HTS' erstwhile hardline Salafi-jihadi beliefs or present a more moderate alternative suggests that many followers remain committed to such ideas, as is clear from Telegram posts of supporters who take more extreme positions than those articulated by Al-Sharaa and members of his government.[48] While Al-Sharaa may assume that any actions unacceptable to the international community can be prevented through orders to senior administrative and military officials, the possibility remains that low-level operatives may act on their jihadi beliefs as long as such ideas have not been explicitly repudiated. Al-Sharaa Repudiated Jihad Against The West; Foreign Countries Accused HTS Of Planning Attacks Abroad Ever since it was known as JN, HTS has declared that it does not pose a threat to the West.[49] Both Al-Joulani and chief HTS religious official 'Abd Al-Rahim 'Atoun gave interviews to Western media in which they stressed this point and even requested Western support for the Syrian revolution.[50] Al-Joulani, while describing U.S. foreign policy as "stupid," expressed hope that the U.S. would eventually "reconcile with Muslims" and asserted that such reconciliation would increase U.S. security.[51] Al-Joulani with PBS correspondent Martin Smith during the latter's visit to Idlib in January 2021 Nevertheless, several countries alleged JN or HTS involvement in terrorist plots outside of Syria, accusations that the group vehemently denied. In 2014, senior U.S. officials alleged the existence of a "Khorasan group" within JN, consisting of veteran jihadis who had participated in the Afghan jihad against the Soviets, which was planning attacks on the West from Syria.[52] No successful attacks in the West or concrete attempts were ever pinned on the Khorasan group, and Al-Joulani denied its existence.[53] Russia also repeatedly accused HTS of involvement in planned terrorist attacks on Russian soil, accusations which the jihadi group repeatedly rejected as false propaganda intended to legitimize Russian strikes in Idlib.[54] Al-Sharaa Supported Jihad Against Israel, Continues To View It As An "Enemy" Despite disavowing global jihad and declaring that his group's jihad was limited to Syria, Al-Joulani continued to make vague threats to Israel while serving as HTS leader, telling the group's fighters in January 2018: "If Allah wills it we will reach not only Damascus, but Jerusalem awaits us as well."[55] Prior to toppling the Assad regime, Al-Joulani and chief HTS religious official 'Abd Al-Rahim 'Atoun – now a senior advisor to the president – made statements praising Hamas' October 7, 2023 attack on Israel and other attacks on Israeli Jews, and expressing support for Palestinian jihad against the Jewish state.[56] Al-Joulani praising the May 2021 "intifada" against Israel in a meeting with Idlib tribal leaders This stance of support for jihad against Israel did not end with the capture of Damascus; on December 8, 2024, an official HTS religious body headed by Dr. Mazhar Al-Ways – currently Syria's Justice Minister – issued a fatwa urging Palestinians to continue their jihad against Israel.[57] In the days following the capture of Damascus, a senior military official reportedly met with representatives of Palestinian armed factions and promised them that Syria would continue to support the Palestinian cause.[58] After toppling the Assad regime, Al-Sharaa made more conciliatory public statements, stressing that he had no intention of waging war against Israel. At the same time, he and senior officials of his government have repeatedly called for Israel to end its "aggression" in Syria and withdraw its forces from the country, in keeping with the 1974 ceasefire agreement between Israel and Syria, and have urged the international community to apply diplomatic pressure to induce Israel to do so.[59] In recent months, there was talk that Syria was moving towards normalizing relations with Israel, though no confirmation of such claims came from the Syrian government.[60] Attending an Arab League "Emergency Arab Summit for Palestine" held in Cairo in March, Al-Sharaa took a harsher tone, describing Israel as an "enemy" whose "aggressive expansion" threatens regional stability and promising that the Syrian nation will remain "at the side of its Palestinian siblings in every step of theirs towards liberation and justice." Discussing Israeli intervention in Syria, Al-Sharaa said: "How will we respond? That is something which we must not say now."[61] Al-Sharaa shaking hands with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas at the Arab League summit After Israeli airstrikes in Damascus in May and again in July, Al-Sharaa escalated his tone, accusing Israel of seeking to destabilize and divide Syria.[62] Condemning Israel in a July 17 speech that followed Israeli airstrikes on the Syrian Defense Ministry headquarters and other sites, Al-Sharaa nevertheless defended his decision not to go to war with Israel, insinuating that the Jewish state seeks to draw Syria into war to destabilize it and cause it further destruction.[63] 'Atoun has also made recent statements blaming Israel for instigating the 12-day conflict with Iran in June and declaring to "the Israeli enemy" that its military superiority does not guarantee its victory in Syria, as Syrians can foil attempts to divide their country.[64] The new Syrian government's relationship with Palestinian militant factions has been complicated. While Al-Sharaa and Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shaibani have received a Palestinian Authority (PA) delegation in Damascus,[65] Al-Sharaa's government has also confiscated the weapons of several Palestinian factions and arrested Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) officials, as well as a Gaza-born HTS commander who ran a campaign raising funds for Gaza.[66] * Y. Kerman is a Research Fellow at MEMRI.
