NOAA predicts above-normal hurricane season this year
May 22 (UPI) -- The Atlantic storm season could produce as many as 19 named storms, including up to 10 hurricanes and five major storms, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The NOAA says there is a 60% chance of an above-normal storm season that could produce between 13 and 19 named storms and between six and 10 hurricanes.
The hurricanes could produce between three and five major hurricanes with wind speeds of at least 111 mph, the NOAA predicts.
Storm impacts could extend well inland of coastal waters.
"As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities," Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm said.
An above-average Atlantic Ocean temperature, weak wind shear and potentially higher West African monsoon activity are among factors contributing to the prediction for an above-average number of storms.
"The high-activity era continues in the Atlantic Basin, featuring high-heat content in the ocean and reduced trade winds," NOAA storm forecasters said.
"The higher-heat content provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption."
NOAA forecasters also say there is a 30% chance of a nearly normal number of named storms, which are those with wind speeds of at least 39 mph, while hurricanes have wind speeds of at least 74 mph.
There is a 10% chance of a below-average number of storms.
The Atlantic storm season traditionally runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, but storms could occur before and after those dates.
From 1991 to 2020, the Atlantic Basin averaged 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The Atlantic Basin includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf.
The first named storm typically forms in mid to late June, according to the NOAA.
The first hurricane usually forms in early to mid-August, while the first major hurricane often forms in late August or early September, but such storms could form well outside of those timeframes.
The NOAA reported 27 weather events that produced at least $1 billion in damages and totaled $182.7 billion in damages in 2024, which were higher than the five-year average of 23 such weather events totaling $149.3 billion in damages.
Hurricane Helene made landfall near Perry, Fla., on Sept. 26 with sustained wind speeds of 140 miles per hour, which was the strongest storm on record in Florida's Big Bend region.
Helene inflicted $78.7 billion in damages, was the deadliest Atlantic hurricane since 2017.
The major hurricane caused 176 direct fatalities and at least 250 in total.
Hurricane Milton made landfall near Florida's Siesta Key on Oct. 9 and caused $34.3 billion in damages.
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