Stock Market Is Pricing A Never-Before-Seen 'Divergence' As Equities And Bonds 'Run It Hot' Amid Gloomy Outlook By Bottom-Up Analysts
The financial markets are signaling a remarkably bullish outlook, with both stock and bond markets fully embracing a 'run it hot' trade. However, this aggressive market pricing stands in stark contrast to the pessimistic views held by bottom-up analysts, companies, and economists, according to a recent analysis by Bob Elliott, CIO at Unlimited Funds.
What Happened: Elliott, in a detailed X thread, highlights this unprecedented 'divergence' which he has 'never seen' in his professional career outside of typical cyclical bottoms.Don't Miss:
Start investing with eToro's CopyTrader — mirror top-performing traders with no management fees, and receive a $10 bonus when you deposit $100 today.
Maker of the $60,000 foldable home has 3 factory buildings, 600+ houses built, and big plans to solve housing — you can become an investor for $0.80 per share today.
Following Tuesday's surge in the equity market, market-based pricing of growth expectations has almost entirely recovered its earlier drop this year, now sitting just a few points off highs.
As highlighted by Elliott, this sentiment is reflected in large-cap 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratios, which are back near all-time highs at 21x.
Concurrently, long-dated real yields have reached their post-COVID cycle highs, and term premiums on closer-in maturities are also approaching their cycle peaks.
Despite this seemingly extreme market optimism, the perspective from professionals analyzing data from the ground up paints a far more subdued picture. Economists are forecasting softer growth for the next couple of years.
Corporate earnings revisions for U.S. large-cap companies have notably collapsed, reaching their weakest point since the COVID-19 pandemic. Global earnings revisions also remain quite subdued, despite a marginal recent uptick in negativity.
Projections for 2025 earnings growth, which are typically skewed positively until just before the period, are currently penciled in at a mere 7%.Why It Matters: According to Elliott, either bottom-up analysts, scrutinizing incoming data, are taking an excessively pessimistic stance, or they are accurate, implying the markets are 'wildly offside.'
For macro investors, he suggests, 'making a call on which is right will likely be the make or break trade for the rest of '25.'
Read Next:
Nancy Pelosi Invested $5 Million In An AI Company Last Year — Here's How You Can Invest In Multiple Pre-IPO AI Startups With Just $1,000.
Invest Where It Hurts — And Help Millions Heal: Invest in Cytonics and help disrupt a $390B Big Pharma stronghold.
Photo: Shutterstock
Send To MSN: Send to MSN
This article Stock Market Is Pricing A Never-Before-Seen 'Divergence' As Equities And Bonds 'Run It Hot' Amid Gloomy Outlook By Bottom-Up Analysts originally appeared on Benzinga.com
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Supply chain software provider Manhattan Associates soars after strong revenue growth
Manhattan Associates, the supply chain software provider whose stock was a wild ride several months ago, reported earnings Tuesday that were cheered by investors and possibly signaled a broader demand turnaround in that sector. At the market close, Manhattan Associates stock (NYSE: MANH) was up $14.92/share, or 7.36%, to $217.71. It traded early in the day as high as $247.22. According to a report on Benzinga, three analysts that checked in with reports Wednesday maintained their buy ratings on Manhattan Associates, but also with target stock prices that ranged from $210 to $250. What is striking about Manhattan's stock is just how much it has swung since December. On December 12, Manhattan Associates hit a 52-week high of $312.60. In less than four months, it had declined to a 52-week low of $140.81, a period that saw its longtime CEO Eddie Capel step aside but remain as executive chairman. (Capel announced on the call that he is transitioning to board chairman, dropping the executive role). That swing from 52-week high to 52-week low in just fourt months marked a roughly 55% decline. It also was a period coming after the company saw sluggish sales figures. The earnings report for the second quarter appears to be changing that narrative. With the move Wednesday to more than $216, the stock is up more than 53% since that low. According to a report on Benzinga, three analysts that checked in with reports on Manhattan Associates Wednesday maintained their buy ratings, but also with target stock prices that ranged from $210 to $250. What drove the surge in Manhattan Associates' stock price Tuesday was an earnings report that showed strong revenue growth, so that the improvement in the bottom line–which was modest–was not just driven by cost cuts and belt tightening. The earnings report showed a sales landscape for Manhattan Associates that had greatly improved. Total revenue of $272.4 million for the company was reported as a record for a second quarter. It was up from $265.3 million a year earlier. But within those numbers was $100.4 million for subscriptions to Manhattan Associates' various offerings through cloud subscriptions, up from $82.4 million. That's a gain of 22%. The positive signals from the cloud subscription figure were boosted further by the numbers on Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO), which is essentially a measure of future revenue that can be expected from subscriptions already under contract. That number rose to just over $2 billion from $1.6 billion a year ago, up 26%. Bottom line numbers were improved also, though not to the level of revenue numbers. Net income for the second quarter rose to $109.4 million, up from $106.6 million. Adjusted operating income, which is a non-GAAP measure of profitability, was $101.1 million for the second quarter. A year ago in the second quarter, it was $92.9 million. Positive developments running through the system Clark spelled out a quarter that produced what might be considered a 'virtuous circle,' though he did not use that term. As a contract with a Manhattan Associates customer runs its course, Clark said, 'the dollars move from RPO to subscription revenue. And by the end of the contract, there's no RPO left.' A renewal 'refreshes' the RPO, Clark added, 'but it does so at a higher level for a number of reasons.' He noted that users within a contract would have been added during the life of that pact, so a renewal now has more seats. But that isn't new. What is new is the Manhattan Active Supply Chain Execution, rolled out in 2024 and which company executives describe as providing 'unification' of its products on one platform. And with a more unified platform, Clark said, there is a greater opportunity to cross-sell. 'When they bought Warehouse Management, we didn't have Transportation Management or Supply Chain Management or AI agents,' Clark said, the latter a reference to the agentic AI features at Manhattan Associates that received a significant amount of focus at Momentum this year. Lots of cross-selling Clark said in the past five quarters, 80% of Manhattan Associates customers that purchased its TMS also bought its warehouse management product, or had already done so. 'So our customers are truly experiencing the value of unification,' Clark said. 'The cross-sell results that we've seen since launching Manhattan Active Supply Chain Execution have far exceeded what we were able to achieve with our prior platform.' Manhattan Associates has said it expects to have a sustainable revenue growth rate of 20% in its cloud subscription revenue. Answering a question from an analyst on the earnings call, Clark said the RPO figure is a reason the company is sticking to that forecast. Clark said the stated goal of 20% would not be regularly updated each quarter on its progress. 'But I can tell you we remain confident,' Clark said, citing the future revenues that are in the RPO. 'That gives us good visibility in the second half and next year.' He also said the renewal cycle 'really starts to pick up pace next year,' citing in particular demand for the Manhattan Active Warehouse Management product. Clark also spoke of changes the company had made in its sales effort, including promoting long-time executive Bob Howell to be its chief sales officer. New middle-level sales managers also have been added, Clark said. But in terms of human resources, it isn't just the executive level; Clark said Manhattan Associates has 'added and will continue to add more feet on the street.' In the three months since the company's prior conference call with analysts, Clark said Manhattan Associates had added 'more sales talent than in any quarter in the past ten years.' Beyond just the last quarter, Clark said the latest three quarters at Manhattan Associates 'have been our best three bookings quarters ever, and you can argue that all three of those quarters were during at least a changing if not a challenging macro.' A boost from Google The company also has put its product offerings up on Google Cloud Marketplace, the cloud platform that hosts third-party software applications. That was disclosed at Momentum. Clark said the largest deal it signed in the quarter 'was influenced by Google Cloud Marketplace, and we have a growing pipeline of Google Marketplace deals.' Revenue in the Services group, which among other offerings provides advisory services to companies growing their use of Manhattan Associates products, fell to $129 million from $136.8 million a year ago. But despite that, CEO Eric Clark, in his prepared remarks on the company's earnings call with analysts, said the group had 'slightly outperformed expectations.' 'This execution is encouraging,' Clark said. 'However, given the inherent flexibility of time and material contracts, coupled with the ongoing tariff and general market uncertainty, we remain cautious on our services revenue growth.' More articles by John Kingston Yet another broker liability case, this time in the Fifth Circuit, adds to the growing mix Much happened at Triumph Financial during the quarter; USPS dispute settled Marten sells intermodal unit to Hub Group, which grows its refrigerated footprint The post Supply chain software provider Manhattan Associates soars after strong revenue growth appeared first on FreightWaves. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Boomers "Golden Girl" Their Way Through Retirement As Rising Costs Crush The Old Playbook
Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. Faced with rising costs, shaky retirement portfolios, and dwindling confidence in Social Security, a growing number of baby boomers are embracing what's being dubbed "Golden Girling": teaming up with roommates to share housing costs and stretch their savings. It's a throwback to the setup made famous by Dorothy, Blanche, Rose and Sophia. Only now, it's less about friendship and more about survival. Downsizing Doesn't Always Cut It Anymore For decades, downsizing was a standard retirement move. Sell the family home, pocket the equity and buy something smaller to lower housing costs. But that playbook is falling apart in today's market. U.S. home prices have surged 60% since 2019, according to Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies, and mortgage rates remain stuck above 6.7%. Many long‑time owners now hold sub‑3% loans. Trading that for today's rates can push payments higher even on a smaller place. In some markets the downsized home actually costs more than the one being sold. That's causing retirees to rethink the math. Instead of relocating, some are staying put and renting out a spare bedroom. Others are opting to move in with fellow seniors to split expenses. Don't Miss: See how a $25,000 investment in home equity could outperform stocks in a high-rate economy. Roommates In Retirement Roommate‑matching site SpareRoom says homeowners taking in roommates jumped 167% between January 2021 and January 2024, with boomers and older Gen Xers the fastest‑growing slice. Senior‑focused platforms like HomeShare Online also report steady growth as older hosts look to swap empty bedrooms for monthly rent and help with chores. Beyond the cash, shared living can ease loneliness and lighten household workloads. Still, money drives the movement. Median two‑bedroom rents hit $1,900 in July 2025, according to Zillow, so even half a payment can shore up a thin budget. Two-Thirds Of Baby Boomers Unprepared Between 2024 and 2030, 30.4 million Americans will turn 65. Dubbed the "Peak Boomers," this cohort is the largest, and last, wave of the Baby Boomer generation. But according to a report by the Alliance for Lifetime Income (ALI), nearly two-thirds of them are not financially prepared to retire. Over half have $250,000 or less in assets. That's not nothing, but it's not nearly enough to cover two decades or more of living expenses, especially when Social Security was only designed to replace about 40% of pre-retirement income. Another 15% have less than $500,000, still likely to come up short. The issue isn't always a lack of planning. Many did save. But inflation, rising healthcare costs, and housing price shocks moved the goalposts. Check out: Take this to get matched with investment ideas that could help stretch your savings and grow your portfolio. Rethinking The Portfolio The "Golden Girls life" isn't for everyone, so many Americans are adjusting their investment strategies to give their retirement fund a boost. Assets like real estate and private credit funds are getting new attention from individual investors. One example is the U.S. Home Equity Fund. This private real estate fund is targeting a 14%-17% net internal rate of return by investing in Home Equity Agreements (HEAs). These agreements give homeowners upfront cash in exchange for a share of their home's future value, providing investors with real estate exposure without the costs or risks of being a landlord. The fund's strategy also provides significant downside protection in case of a market downturn, so investors don't get the rug pulled out from under them when it matters the most. Living Longer, Spending More Carefully Even those already retired are making moves. Roughly 41% of retirees surveyed by ALI said they're actively looking for ways to spend less. About 11% are seeking part-time work to supplement income and nearly half report feeling anxious about spending at all. As more Americans enter retirement without the pensions that supported earlier generations, strategies like Golden Girling and diversifying retirement investments are likely to become more common, and more necessary. "The Golden Girls" may have made communal living look fun, but for today's boomers, it might be the key to staying afloat. Read Next: Wall Street has been quietly buying up equity in owner-occupied homes, and the strategy is kind of genius. Image: Shutterstock This article Boomers "Golden Girl" Their Way Through Retirement As Rising Costs Crush The Old Playbook originally appeared on © 2025 Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
If You Invested $10K In UMH Properties Stock 10 Years Ago, How Much Would You Have Now?
Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. UMH Properties Inc. (NYSE:UMH) is a real estate investment trust specializing in the ownership and operation of manufactured home communities. It is set to report its Q2 2025 earnings on Aug. 6. Wall Street analysts expect the company to post EPS of $0.25, up from $0.23 in the prior-year period. According to Benzinga Pro, quarterly revenue is expected to reach $65.97 million, up from $60.33 million a year earlier. Don't Miss: Accredited investors can —with up to 120% bonus shares—before this Uber-style disruption hits the public markets $100k+ in investable assets? – no cost, no obligation. If You Bought UMH Properties Stock 10 Years Ago The company's stock traded at approximately $9.82 per share 10 years ago. If you had invested $10,000, you could have bought roughly 1,018 shares. Currently, shares trade at $16.91, meaning your investment's value could have grown to $17,220 from stock price appreciation alone. However, UMH Properties also paid dividends during these 10 years. UMH Properties' dividend yield is currently 5.32%. Over the last 10 years, it has paid about $8.21 in dividends per share, which means you could have made $8,360 from dividends alone. Summing up $17,220 and $8,360, we end up with the final value of your investment, which is $25,580. This is how much you could have made if you had invested $10,000 in UMH Properties stock 10 years ago. This means a total return of 155.80%. However, this figure is significantly less than the S&P 500 total return for the same period, which was 254.96%. Trending: This AI-Powered Trading Platform Has 5,000+ Users, 27 Pending Patents, and a $43.97M Valuation — What Could The Next 10 Years Bring? UMH Properties has a consensus rating of "Buy" and a price target of $20.69 based on the ratings of nine analysts. The price target implies more than 22% potential upside from the current stock price. The company on May 1 announced its Q1 2025 earnings, posting FFO of $0.23, compared to the consensus estimate of $0.24, and revenues of $61.23 million, compared to the consensus of $62.33 million, as reported by Benzinga. "Our guidance for full-year 2025 remains unchanged. We expect normalized FFO in the range of $0.96-$1.04 per diluted share, or $1.00 per diluted share at the midpoint. As we head into the seasonally strong spring and summer months, we anticipate continued growth in occupancy, NOI, and sales, delivering long-term value to our shareholders," said CEO Samuel A. Landy. Given the expected upside potential, growth-focused investors may find UMH Properties stock attractive. Furthermore, they can benefit from the company's solid dividend yield of 5.32%. Check out this article by Benzinga for three more stocks offering high dividend yields. Read Next: Warren Buffett once said, "If you don't find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die." Here's , starting today. If there was a new fund backed by Jeff Bezos offering a ? Image: Shutterstock This article If You Invested $10K In UMH Properties Stock 10 Years Ago, How Much Would You Have Now? originally appeared on © 2025 Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data