MLB Home Run Derby Betting Odds, Best Bets: Prediction, Best Value Plays

Newsweek

13 hours ago

Oddsmakers see Seattle's Cal Raleigh as the favorite in the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby, which begins tonight at 8 p.m. ET.
Oddsmakers see Seattle's Cal Raleigh as the favorite in the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby, which begins tonight at 8 p.m. ET.
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Whether you're a diehard baseball fan who has been locked in since March or a casual, the annual MLB Home Run Derby is always worth checking out.
The eight-man field for the 2025 derby -- which takes place tonight at Truist Park in Atlanta -- features several interesting storylines.
The intrigue starts with Mariners star Cal Raleigh, who nearly broke Barry Bonds' longstanding record for most home runs in the first half of an MLB season.
Will Raleigh be as effective in this competition as he's been all season?
The odds for both Pirates center fielder Oneil Cruz and 22-year-old Nationals left fielder James Wood are 4-to-1 or shorter at most sportsbooks, which tells you that we're looking at a wide-open competition.
How To Watch MLB Home Run Derby
Start time: 8 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN/ESPN2
MLB Home Run Derby Betting Odds
Below are the odds (as of Monday afternoon) from FanDuel, DraftKings and bet365 for the eight participants:
Player (HRs, rank) FD DK bet365 Cal Raleigh (38, 1st) +300 +295 +275 Oneil Cruz (16, 43rd) +310 +330 +300 James Wood (24, 8th) +370 +450 +400 Byron Buxton (21, 12th) +850 +950 +800 Matt Olson (17, 31st) +950 +800 +900 Junior Caminero (23, 10th) +1000 +1200 +1200 Brent Rooker (20, 17th) +1000 +850 +1000 Jazz Chisholm (17, 31st) +1500 +1100 +1500
Raleigh's status as the favorite is more than justified given his historic campaign thus far.
He finished the first half of this season with the second-most pre-All Star break homers (38) in MLB history, behind only Bonds' 39 in 2001. Bonds, of course, finished 2001 with 73 dingers, which still stands as MLB's single-season record (and the only 60-plus home run season since '01 was Aaron Judge's 62-homer effort in 2022).
Oddsmakers expect a hard-fought battle between Raleigh, Cruz and Wood.
But keep in mind that last year, Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernández won the HR Derby despite entering as one of the biggest betting longshots.
Best Home Run Derby Value Bet: J. Wood
Best odds: +450 at DraftKings
In just his second season in the majors, Wood has broken out for the Nationals. He's currently top-10 in MLB in both HRs and RBI (tied-8th with 69), and he's a popular pick for a number of reasons.
For one thing, Wood's pitcher tonight will be Nationals third-base coach Ricky Gutierrez. Partnering with an experienced coach like Gutierrez could give Wood a leg up on the likes of Raleigh, whose father will be pitching, and Chisholm, whose stepfather will be on the mound.
It's also worth noting that in a tough-to-predict competition like this, line-shopping is essential. The current format of the derby -- which rewards stamina/conditioning as much as pure slugging power -- makes finding value by comparing odds across a variety of sportsbooks even more helpful.
Wood being available at +450 at DK (compared to +370 at FD and +400 at bet365) is a big part of what makes him tempting here.
Best Home Run Derby Longshot Bet: M. Olson
Best odds: +950 at FanDuel
Looking further down the board, one high-upside option with a unique advantage in tonight's competition is 31-year-old Braves 1B Matt Olson.
Tonight will be a good test of how much weight we should put in a hitter's familiarity with the ballpark. Olson knows Truist Park better than anyone in tonight's field after joining the Braves back in 2022.
Of Olson's 17 homers on the season, he's hit nine in 174 at bats at home, compared to eight in 185 road ABs. He also boasts a better batting average (.270 at home, .254 away), slugging percentage (.483 at home, .454 away) and OPS (.835 at home, .825 away) at Truist Park than on the road.
While there's (obviously) no guarantee those numbers will translate to a strong showing in the Derby, Olson's homefield advantage at least makes him a tempting longshot at nearly 10-to-1 odds.
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