How does MLB's investigation into Emmanuel Clase impact Guardians' trade deadline plans?

Yahoo

5 days ago

CLEVELAND — The long-term futures of Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase and starting pitcher Luis Ortiz are in the hands of Major League Baseball's gambling investigation.
In the short term, the Guardians know they'll be without both through at least Aug. 31, the current end date of their nondisciplinary paid leave, which could be extended.
The Guardians woke up July 28 only 3.5 games out of a American League wild card berth, the result of a recent 11-2 stretch that followed a 10-game losing skid. By the time the afternoon rolled around, they were without their three-time All-Star closer for the next month, a gut punch to not only the clubhouse but their playoff chances.
The timing of Clase's sidelining has the chance to have a ripple effect considering MLB's trade deadline — 6 p.m. July 31 — is fast approaching. But will it?
2025 MLB trade deadline: Does closer Emmanuel Clase impact Guardians' plans?
The Guardians' trade deadline plans were already a bit murky, and the Clase situation only added another layer to it all considering how they might respond to it.
They've been hovering around .500 for the last couple of weeks. The 10-game skid threatened to catapult them into full seller's territory, but the response of winning 11 of their next 13 games, combined with the easiest remaining schedule in the AL, left the door cracked open for a possible playoff push.
Three things are commonly known about how the Guardians front office normally operates: First, they make decisions with both today and tomorrow in mind as they try to regularly field a playoff contender; second, they'll always at least answer the phone when opposing teams call, not wanting to close the door on any potential paths to build the roster; and third, they can drive teams borderline insane with how disciplined they can be when sticking to their internal evaluations.
So, knowing that, how does Clase's absence fit into all of it? It likely doesn't mean the Guardians will enter a fire sale and lower their own values on available players, but it might mean they receive some additional phone calls from teams wondering if Cleveland is throwing in the towel, and if any players are more available than they were a few hours prior to the Clase news.
Hammy in the Hall: 'It's very surreal': Tom Hamilton to be inducted into Hall of Fame as Frick Award winner
In other words, it depends more on the offers coming in than the Guardians' own stance, considering their propensity to stand their ground and not overreact to situations. Because they rarely go 100 percent in or out, and they're often balancing a number of factors for both the immediate season and the future, Clase being out for a month won't lead to a landslide, at least from Cleveland's perspective.
But if other teams decide to offer enough, with the inkling that just a bit more value might do the trick, if they think (or hope) the Guardians are leaning that way? Perhaps.
"It's a very active time of year anyway where we're in constant dialogue with a lot of teams, so we had a lot of dialogue up through this morning," said president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti. "Certainly, I've had dialogue over the last few hours and my expectation is that it will continue over the next few days."
Who could the Guardians trade at the 2025 deadline?
One known element of Clase being sidelined is that he absolutely cannot be traded at this deadline, nor can Ortiz. The odds that Clase would have been moved considering his team-friendly, long-term contract were low. It likely would have taken an out-of-this-world offer to move the needle. But now that flexibility is gone regardless.
It also puts an even greater premium on reliever Cade Smith. Manager Stephen Vogt noted July 28 the Guardians won't officially name a closer just yet, but it stands to reason Smith will be the favorite for saves in Cleveland. If his price tag was high already, it'd take even more to pry him from the Guardians now.
All-Star left fielder Steven Kwan has been occasionally named as a possible trade target, but that's another would-need-to-be-blown-out-of-the-water situation with any potential offers. First baseman Carlos Santana is likely the most available, but the 39-year-old first baseman probably won't garner much of a return on the open market.
Center fielder Lane Thomas might have been a prime trade target considering he's heading for free agency, but a nagging plantar fasciitis issue has likely taken him off the board as well, along with Clase and Ortiz.
Starting pitcher Shane Bieber remains one of the most interesting trade possibilities in baseball. It would only make sense for the Guardians to move him if they received top dollar, which could be asking a lot for someone coming off Tommy John surgery. Teams acquiring him would only have his rehab assignments to work off of for evaluations. Bieber has a player option with a $4 million buyout for 2026.
Generally speaking, perhaps a team could use the Ortiz and Clase situations to placate some selling at the deadline. But it might be difficult to sell that idea to a clubhouse only a few games out of a playoff spot with two months of baseball left to play.
On the other hand, if they lose a series to the historically-bad Colorado Rockies, all bets might be off when it comes to selling at the deadline should the Guardians lose ground in the Wild Card race on the heels of the Clase news.
This article originally appeared on Akron Beacon Journal: Could Emmanuel Clase's absence impact the Guardians' trade deadline?