State of Origin 2025 Game 3: where the series decider will be won and lost

The Guardian

a day ago

They have been outplayed for much of this year's State of Origin series, written off and then almost snuffed out at the end of Perth's dramatic Game 2. But Queensland are primed for another doubt-them-at-your-peril Maroons miracle in the shield-deciding match on Wednesday at Accor Stadium in Sydney.
While the Blues are settled going into the much-anticipated clash, Queensland coach Billy Slater has made changes by both necessity and conviction. His side may have held on at the death to win the last contest 26-24, but their performance still prompted the former fullback to press the big maroon button: the break-glass-in-emergency, call-up-a-great-for-one-last-time selection shock.
The tradition is part of Origin folklore, a thread tracing through Allan Langer in 2001 all the way back to Artie Beetson at the series' conception. This time it's front-rower Josh Papalii, whose impact will be one of the key determinants of the result on Wednesday night.
Slater's decision to drop starting prop Mo Fotuaika from his squad highlights the coach's frustration with his forward pack. They were humbled in Game 1 and overrun in the second half of Game 2, and were ultimately lucky to avoid defeat.
Even in that context however, the decision to recall Papalii is a shock. He has played 23 matches for Queensland, but none since 2022, and is now an impact player for the Raiders. The 33-year-old has averaged nine hit-ups and 100 run metres this year for the table-toppers, typically playing about a half's worth of football each week.
The Blues pack led by Payne Haas and Isaah Yeo is imposing and skilful, but in Max King and Stefano Utoikamanu does include two players yet to fully establish themselves at Origin level.
Slater understands the contribution of 'Big Papa' will be both direct and indirect. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui and Pat Carrigan, the Maroons' go-to enforcers, are yet to impose their will on this year's series. The veteran's presence, the coach hopes, will provide a spark.
The sad news on Sunday about the death of Steve Munster, father of Queensland captain Cameron, will affect the Maroons' preparations this week, given the five-eighth has left camp to be with family. He is expected back in time to play on Wednesday, but will miss crucial reps with a new-look backline.
Munster delivered a man-of-the-match display in Game 2 in his first match as captain. Awarding the once-wayward star the 'C' was a gamble from Slater that paid off, and the 30-year-old was central to their success and especially their four-try, first-half blitz. After the events of recent days there are justified doubts whether Munster will be at or near his best on Wednesday, if he plays at all.
Yet the experiences shared by the players this week has the potential to galvanise a squad that on paper looks like it needs every bit of help to upset the Blues in a Sydney decider. What if an emotional Munster did help his state eke out an Origin victory in the decider in the midst of one of life's darker moments?
In that reality, Munster's status would draw alongside the greats of the Maroons' era of 2000s and 2010s dominance, and not far off Wally Lewis at the summit of Queensland rugby league.
The Blues boast two of the most devastating players in the game, Stephen Crichton and Latrell Mitchell, and both line up in the centres. Opposite them stand two unheralded underdogs.
20-year-old Robert Toia has acquitted himself well in his first Origin series, and Gehamat Shibasaki, the 27-year-old Broncos journeyman, lines up on the other side of the field making his debut.
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While Toia has not looked out of place at Origin level, the Blues now have 160 minutes of vision to target his tendencies. And as effective as he has been in the NRL this season, there is a reason Shibasaki was on a train-and-trial with the Broncos at the start of the season, having bounced around the lower grades and even Japanese rugby union.
Slater's decision to roll with this unproven centre pairing – despite having alternatives like Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Val Holmes deployed elsewhere in the backline – is more of a gamble than calling on Papalii for one or two valiant shifts in the middle. If it pays off, Queensland's narrow path to victory remains open.
Blues winger Brian To'o is one of rugby league's greatest finishers, and already a Penrith and New South Wales all-timer at age 26. But his status as the best winger in the game is rooted in his work at the other end. His ability to procure the tough early metres in each set has been one of the foundations of his teams' successes, a man-made tailwind behind each set.
So the injury cloud under which he finds himself is a major concern for the Blues. The 26-year-old suffered a knee injury a week ago and although scans cleared the way for him to join the Blues, the inclusion of Bulldogs winger Jacob Kiraz as 18th man is an insurance policy for a possible late withdrawal.
While Kiraz has been electric for Canterbury this season, and offers a similar appetite for metres of his own line, he is without doubt a step down from the universally respected Panther. An absent or impaired To'o can only engender confidence for the Maroons.
Slater named two fullbacks for last year's decider: Reece Walsh starting and Kalyn Ponga coming off the bench. A year later, neither wears the Maroons' No 1 jersey as Ponga's foot injury and Walsh's protracted recovery from a knee injury opens the door for Tabuai-Fidow to earn the role of the Maroons' backfield ace.
The 23-year-old has been in sparkling form for the Dolphins this season, but is known more for his incisive running game and support play and less for his passing and kicking compared to Walsh.
Slater explained Tabuai-Fidow's selection at No 1, after nine appearances for the Maroons at centre and wing, as the 'best fit' for the team. It's not clear exactly what the coach means, leaving it up to the Hammer to show us on Wednesday.