
Is Donald Trump's tariff blitz killing the American Dream?
Trump has positioned himself to take credit for any gains while scrambling to assign blame when data points disappoint. After Friday's bleak jobs report, he fired the head of the agency responsible for the numbers, claiming without evidence that the figures were politically manipulated. 'The Economy is BOOMING,' Trump posted on Truth Social, contradicting the very data his own government released.The economic fallout of his policies may still be unfolding, but what's becoming increasingly clear is that the promised boom is proving elusive. US ECONOMY IS NOT 'BOOMING'Economists are beginning to detect early warning signs. Growth has slowed to an annualised 1.8% in Q2, far below the 3–4% Trump promised. Inflation is rising again, with core CPI up 3.6% year-on-year. Job creation has dropped below expectations for the second straight month. Real wages are stagnating.And yet, Trump's rhetoric remains unchanged. He's banking on delayed benefits: that tariffs will protect American jobs, that interest rate cuts will fuel a housing revival, and that deregulation will eventually drive corporate investment.But for many Americans already reeling from higher prices and fewer job openings, that promised future feels increasingly out of reach.TARIFF CHAOS TO HURT US CONSUMERSTrump's most audacious bet—sweeping tariffs on nearly all foreign goods—is now colliding with reality. The tariffs, which began taking effect this month, are structured to escalate further in early 2026.The White House has argued that its recent wave of trade deals—from the EU and Japan to the Philippines—will cushion the blow. But for the average American consumer, tariffs function as a tax. Importers raise prices to cover the duties, which trickle down into grocery bills, construction materials, appliances, and cars.The administration insists these moves are part of a longer-term strategy to reshore manufacturing and reduce trade deficits. advertisementBut that narrative is faltering.Manufacturing output fell 0.4% in June. The US trade deficit widened in July to $71.2 billion. And consumer sentiment, according to the University of Michigan survey, has slipped to its lowest level in 18 months.TRUMP SUPPORTERS DEFEND TARIFFSDespite mounting evidence of economic turbulence, Trump's supporters continue to defend the tariffs, arguing that the full impact will take time to materialise. Some Republican strategists believe the short-term pain is a necessary price for long-term gain.'Considering how early we are in his term, Trump's had an unusually big impact on the economy already,' Alex Conant of Firehouse Strategies told The Associated Pr. 'The full inflationary impact of the tariffs won't be felt until 2026. Unfortunately for Republicans, that's also an election year.'Even so, public approval of Trump's economic stewardship is slipping. Just 38% of adults support his handling of the economy, according to a July AP-NORC poll, down from 50% at the end of his first term.Trump's latest move—blaming the Federal Reserve for not cutting interest rates fast enough—has unnerved investors. Rate cuts may marginally ease mortgage rates, but economists warn they could also re-ignite inflation. It's a risky wager that may undermine confidence in the Fed's independence.advertisementGLOBAL SPILLOVERTrump's tariff blitz isn't just straining American households, it's also hurting global trade flows. On August 1, the US formally sanctioned six Indian firms for allegedly buying Iranian petrochemicals, citing violations of Trump's tightened export regime. The sanctions sent shockwaves through India's petrochemical sector, with several companies now facing blocked access to US markets.The impact isn't limited to India. European automakers are bracing for higher input costs. Southeast Asian textile exporters are seeing orders rerouted. And China, already caught in a trade war redux, has hinted at retaliatory tariffs of its own. The idea that Trump's trade strategy would isolate China while strengthening US alliances has so far proven inaccurate. And now, it seems that the US is now entangled in disputes on multiple fronts.Even then, Trump's allies insist that it's too soon to judge the results. 'President Trump is implementing the very same policy mix of deregulation, fairer trade, and pro-growth tax cuts at an even bigger scale – as these policies take effect, the best is yet to come,' said White House spokesman Kush Desai.But that optimism is increasingly at odds with reality on the ground. For many Americans, the promised economic revival feels more like a slow bleed. Higher prices, a jittery job market, and falling real incomes are beginning to bite.If this is Trump's golden age, it's starting to look like fool's gold. So far, 'making America great again' seems to be coming with a price tag Americans weren't told about.- EndsTune InTrending Reel
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Indian Express
4 minutes ago
- Indian Express
As Trump's fresh threats loom, India still has a slight tariff edge over China but loses advantage with Vietnam
Despite fresh tariff escalation threats and the prospect of higher duties under the new regime announced by US President Donald Trump that could take effect from August 7, India continues to have a relative advantage on a key metric being tracked by policymakers in New Delhi – the tariff differential with China. As on August 1, China had the highest effective tariff rate (ETR) of the US's major trading partners, with India with a comparative advantage of around 20 percentage points. While tariffs on China remain at 34 per cent, the total ETR inclusive of the tariff rate at the end of 2024 came to around 42 per cent, according to Fitch Ratings' updated ETR Monitor that reflects the July 27 and July 31 announcements of new reciprocal tariff rates for most trading partners of the US. While India is slightly over 21 per cent, according to the latest data, the overall effective tariff rate for the US across all its trading partners is now 17 per cent — about 8 percentage points lower than Fitch's ETR Monitor of April 3, 2025, when higher reciprocal tariffs were originally announced, but around 3 percentage points higher than the estimate at the end of June 2025. The ETR represents total duties as a percentage of total imports and changes, with shifts in import share by country of origin and product mix. With Vietnam, though, India now has lost a slight advantage in ETR terms after additional tariffs kicked in, as against an advantage up to end-2024. This is despite Trump's rhetoric against transhipped goods and his administration's efforts to neutralise China's supply bases in ASEAN. And going forward, given Trump's frustration with India on not agreeing to his terms for a deal, this disadvantage is likely to fester. That is likely to be the case till Delhi gets a deal of some kind with Washington DC, but the situation could, however, change for the worse going forward, with Trump warning Monday that he would raise the tariff on India 'substantially' for buying Russian oil. Amid all the upheaval thrown up by America's tariff action, the assumptions that the Indian policymaker had implicitly factored in include that Washington DC will maintain a differential of 10-20 per cent in tariffs between China and countries such as India; and that a trade deal with the US needs to be clinched precisely for ensuring the gap in tariffs between India and China is maintained, even with a limited early-harvest type of deal. New Delhi did back out at the last minute from signing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (a trade deal among Asia-Pacific countries including China) given the sensitivities of agri livelihoods. A higher-than-anticipated US tariff rate, especially on a comparative basis, could dent India's growth prospects, economists said. Though Trump did not specify the rate of penalty for India on account of Russian oil and defence imports, earlier statements made by Trump indicate that it could be to the tune of 100 per cent. This way, India stands to potentially lose the US tariff advantage vis-a-vis China at least till the time a deal is struck, even if Beijing, too, faces the same penalty for importing from Russia. China is the largest buyer of Russian oil, at about 2 million barrels per day, followed by India (just under 2 million a day) and Turkey. China had agreed to cut tariffs on US goods to 10 per cent from 125 per cent in May, while the US had agreed to lower tariffs on Chinese goods to 30 per cent from 145 per cent. But with respect to Russian oil, Trump has been singling out India, while being largely silent on China. Given how talks between Indian and US negotiators have proceeded so far, an interim deal still seems distant and is unlikely to be clinched before September, with October a possible outer deadline. Indications are a sixth round of talks between the two negotiating teams will take discussions forward on August 25. India's government has asked it various ministries to come up with potential giveaways to sweeten the deal for the upcoming negotiations. Once the official level discussions wrap up, there is a sense that a final call on the deal could come down to a conversation between the two leaders, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump. For India, the best-case scenario would be to get a deal of some sort now, and then build on that in the future negotiations that could run into 2026, experts said. The effective duty on Chinese products on a landed basis across US ports in commodity categories where Indian producers are reasonably competitive is being tracked constantly. The net tariff differential with India, and how that curve continues to move, is of particular interest here, given the belief that Washington DC would ensure a reasonable tariff differential between China and India. Officials said a 10-20 per cent differential is expected to tide over some of India's structural downsides — infrastructural bottlenecks, logistics woes, high interest cost, the cost of doing business, corruption, etc. US and Chinese officials wrapped up two days of discussions in Stockholm last week, with no breakthrough announced. After the talks, China's top trade negotiator Li Chenggang declared that the two sides agreed to push for an extension of a 90-day tariff truce struck in mid-May, without specifying when and for how long this extension kicks in. Anil Sasi is National Business Editor with the Indian Express and writes on business and finance issues. He has worked with The Hindu Business Line and Business Standard and is an alumnus of Delhi University. ... 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Indian Express
7 minutes ago
- Indian Express
‘Unable to accept erosion of its dominance': After India, Russia hits back at US on inflated tariffs over oil trade
Days after Trump unveiled a new set of steep tariffs, Russia on Monday responded to the US administration for increasing tariffs and imposing sanctions on the country, accusing the government of using 'neocolonial' policy against specific countries to maintain Washington's hegemony. Russia's Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, in a statement, said no tariff wars or sanctions 'can halt the natural course of history'. Calling sanctions and restrictions a 'regrettable reality' of today's historical stage that affects the entire world, she said that the US is unable to come to terms with the 'loss of hegemony in the emerging world order.' 'Sanctions and restrictions have unfortunately become a defining feature of the current historical period, impacting countries across the globe. Unable to accept the erosion of its dominance in an emerging multipolar international order, Washington continues to pursue a neocolonial agenda, employing politically motivated economic pressure against those who choose an independent course on the international stage,' she said. Russia asserted in its statement that 'no tariff wars or sanctions can halt the natural course of history.' Zakharova further said that Russia will deepen in cooperation with countries of the Global South, and resist the 'unlawful unilateral sanctions.' The response issued by Russian Foreign Ministry came hours after India issued a strongly worded statement over US imposing inflated tariffs on New Delhi for indulging in trade with Moscow in the middle of the Russia-Ukraine war. (With inputs from PTI)