Crude Oil ‘s Seasonal And Technical Outlook
The NYMEX launched the West Texas Light Crude oil contract in 1983. Soon, their price action, as well as that of the T-Bond and gold futures became a regular part of my analytical routine. This led to instructional presentations for oil traders in Singapore and London. WTI is now traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) which provided a 40-year history.
Many crude oil traders use fundamental data to measure supply and demand in order to forecast prices. In my technical approach, I look at the actual futures price data as well as the volume and open interest to determine where prices are heading.
Crude Oil Monthly
This monthly chart goes back to early 2021 as the monthly DTS (created by my colleague Jerry A) generated a buy signal (see arrow) in January 2021. Crude oil prices traded higher until peaking in June 2023 after a high of $123.68. Crude oil had spent several months above the starc+ band, so it was in a high-risk buy area.
The monthly sell signal came in August (see arrow) and prices subsequently declined $25 before a low in May of 2023. The new monthly buy was generated in July 2023 as crude oil closed back above its 20- month EMA. The rally terminated three months later as it acted like a bear market rally as crude oil failed to overcome the 50% resistance at $93.82.
In 2024, crude oil prices drifted lower, and then in April of 2025, WTI closed below the support line A, at $65.41. The three-month rally from the low at $55.12 peaked at $78.40 and briefly moved above the yearly pivot at $74.94 (in purple), but was not able to close above it, which kept the yearly trend negative
On the bottom of the chart is the Aspray Insight indicator, a derivation of the relative performance, developed by Jerry A. This indicator has been in a downtrend since late 2023, indicating that WTI was going to be weaker than the S&P 500. So far in 2025, WTI is down 8.9% year-to-date while the S&P 500 is up 7.9%.
Crude Oil Weekly
This weekly chart shows that the recent WTI move above the yearly pivot at $74.94 (in purple) reached or exceeded the weekly starc+ band before it turned lower. Below the chart is plotted the Seasonal Trend, which is calculated using the WTI data since 1984. Based on this data, WTI prices typically bottom on December 13th and then typically will top out on July 4th.
It has always been my approach that the Seasonal Trend analysis should only be followed when it agrees with the technical outlook. The negative monthly analysis of crude oil and the current signs of failing rallies in the Energy Select (XLE) and SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration (XOP) mean that August may be a tough month for oil prices and the oil stocks. A drop in crude oil or the energy ETFs below the July lows should confirm a new decline.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
5 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Civil service internships to be restricted to working class
The government will tighten eligibility criteria for Whitehall internships as part of a broader push to make the civil service more representative of the working class. According to the BBC, the main internship scheme will now be limited to students from 'lower socio-economic backgrounds'. Pat McFadden, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and the minister responsible for civil service reform, said that Whitehall needed to reflect the broader community. 'We need to get more working-class young people into the Civil Service so it harnesses the broadest range of talent and truly reflects the country,' he told the BBC. 'Government makes better decisions when it represents and understands the people we serve.' The changes are expected to take effect from summer 2026 and will give young people experience writing briefings, planning events, conducting policy research and shadowing civil servants, according to the broadcaster. The existing work summer placement programme, which lasts up to eight weeks and is paid, is open to undergraduates in the final two years of their degree. The Duchy of Lancaster has been contacted for comment. The move comes after the Government announced plans to move thousands more civil servants out of London as part of plans to 'radically reform the state'. In May, the Government confirmed it would cut the number of civil servants working in London by 12,000 and shift jobs to a series of new regional 'campuses' across the country. Mr McFadden said at the time that the Government would be relocating a 'substantial number of roles'. 'The aim is to reduce the London count by about 12,000. That will save us £94 million in lease costs because the properties in London are very expensive. 'And we will move thousands – it's difficult to put a precise number – thousands of those jobs to new themed campuses around the country,' he told Times Radio. The changes will also see 11 Government office buildings in London close, including one of its largest Westminster sites, in a move expected to save £94 million a year by 2032. The move will see two new major 'campuses' created, one in Manchester focused on digital innovation and AI and another in Aberdeen on energy. Manchester is already home to major offices of the science and culture departments, while Aberdeen houses the new Great British Energy headquarters. Other roles will be created in Birmingham, Leeds, Cardiff, Glasgow, Darlington, Newcastle and Tyneside, Sheffield, Bristol, Edinburgh, Belfast and York, with the changes expected to bring £729 million to the local economy by 2030.
Wall Street Journal
7 minutes ago
- Wall Street Journal
Community Callout: What Would You Ask a Mega-Millionaire About Money?
What does it take to get really, and I mean, really, rich? The Wall Street Journal's Gunjan Banerji sits down with a mega-millionaire to answer your burning questions about money. Making it, investing it and spending it.
Bloomberg
7 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
Copper Set for Weekly Decline After Trump's Surprise Tariff Move
Copper was on track for a weekly fall, as President Donald Trump's shock decision not to place tariffs on refined products had traders rushing to book up London Metal Exchange storage space to house the metal. Trump imposed 50% tariffs on some copper imports starting Friday but exempted refined products, triggering a record plunge for US prices after traders had rushed to get the metal to America before the levies kicked in. New York futures' massive premium over London evaporated and at stages swung to a discount on Thursday.
