Powell speaks in Europe as Trump piles pressure on Fed

Mint

12 hours ago

Jerome Powell will try to project stability without worsening the fight over Federal Reserve independence at a gathering sometimes referred to as the European equivalent of the central bank's Jackson Hole economic conference.
The Fed chair will speak Tuesday morning at the European Central Bank's Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal, as the White House steps up plans to replace him and fractures inside the Fed become harder to ignore.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg on Monday that there are already people at the Federal Reserve who could take over for Powell when his term ends in May. He also said that the administration might fill a key Fed board seat that opens in January with someone who could later take over as chair. President Donald Trump made clear in a Fox News interview over the weekend that successor will be expected to cut interest rates aggressively.
Shortly after Bessent's remarks, Trump took to social media to escalate his attacks on Powell and the Fed board, accusing them of costing the country 'trillions of dollars" by keeping rates too high. Trump said the full board 'should be ashamed of themselves."
The strategy reflects a push by the administration to steer monetary policy ahead of Powell's 2026 exit. Markets are already reacting: The dollar and bond yields have both fallen.
At the same time, divisions are widening within the central bank. Two Trump-appointed officials, Gov. Christopher Waller and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, have called for rate cuts as soon as July, citing softer inflation and early signs of weakness in the job market. Other officials, including Powell, are urging patience, warning that tariff-driven price pressures, geopolitical issues, and other Federal policy complicate the path to easing.
Officials held rates at 4.25%-4.50% at the Fed's June meeting and signaled that there could still be two rate cuts later this year. But the Summary of Economic Projections showed a growing divergence—eight officials foresaw two cuts this year while seven policymakers predicted there would be none.
That fragmentation is playing out against a fragile economy. Thursday's jobs report for June could complicate the picture both for those policymakers who favor cutting rates, and for those who see a need to hold them steady.
Economists expect payroll growth to slow and the unemployment rate to edge higher, signs that a cooling of the labor market is under way. A stronger-than-expected report could give Fed officials cover to hold rates steady for longer, while a weak result may fuel calls for earlier cuts, both from inside the Fed and the White House.
Those pressures will be front and center when Powell joins ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, and Bank of Korea President Chang Yong Rhee for a policy panel at Sintra. It is scheduled to start as the stock market opens at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.
Write to Nicole Goodkind at [e-mail].