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Has the oil market grown numb to conflict in the Middle East?

Has the oil market grown numb to conflict in the Middle East?

India Today2 days ago
The recent conflict between Israel and Iran, followed by a tense ceasefire, has not led to any long-term change in global oil prices.According to a new analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights, the global oil market remains focused on supply and demand factors, not geopolitical risks. While oil prices did spike briefly during the conflict, they quickly returned to their previous trend.S&P Global expects oil supply to be higher than demand by 1.2 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025. In 2026, the surplus is likely to be 800,000 barrels per day. This is a major shift from 2024, when demand slightly exceeded supply.The firm also said that global oil demand growth in 2025 is on track to be just 870,000 barrels per day. This would make it the weakest year for oil demand since 2001, except during major economic disruptions like the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.OIL PRICES LIKELY TO STAY LOWAs per S&P Global's base case, Brent crude oil prices are expected to stay in the range of $50 to $60 per barrel.WTI prices could remain slightly lower, between the upper $40s and upper $50s per barrel. The report says that the weak demand and increased supply are keeping prices under control despite geopolitical concerns.US OIL OUTPUT SET TO DECLINEThe United States may see its first year-on-year fall in oil production in nearly a decade. S&P Global predicts total US crude oil and condensate production will drop by 600,000 barrels per day from mid-2025 to the end of 2026.Jim Burkhard, Vice President and Global Head of Crude Oil Research at S&P Global, said that the price of oil and Wall Street remain the de facto regulators of US crude production."The onset of conflict in Iran briefly injected a fear premium into oil prices, and fresh uncertainties do remain. But the fundamentals are the fundamentals, and the oil price trend remains the same—downward," he added.MIDDLE EAST OUTPUT ON THE RISEEven during the conflict, oil exports from the Middle East continued to rise. OPEC+ countries have started increasing production as part of their plan to roll back earlier production cuts.By mid-June, Saudi Arabia had boosted its crude and condensate exports by nearly 700,000 barrels per day, in line with its monthly target.The Persian Gulf still holds over 4 million barrels per day of unused production capacity. This provides a strong supply cushion even if fresh disruptions occur.IRAN COULD ADD MORE OIL IF SANCTIONS EASEThere is a possibility that Iran could raise its oil output if the current ceasefire holds and sanctions are eased. This could lead to even more oil entering the market.Ian Stewart, Associate Director at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said, 'A year or more into the future, could a focal point in the market be how much Iran could increase production rather than attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz or damage oil infrastructure in other countries? Perhaps. In the meantime, expect more oil supply from the Middle East, regardless.'Despite rising tensions, oil markets are reacting more to hard numbers than news headlines. S&P Global's view is that current market fundamentals, weak demand, rising supply, and full storage are keeping oil prices in check.The fear factor may cause brief movements in price, but long-term trends are still shaped by how much oil is being produced and how much is actually needed.- EndsTune InMust Watch
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Erdogan eyes Turkey's return to F-35 program under Trump deal
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Erdogan eyes Turkey's return to F-35 program under Trump deal

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Inspired by Greta Thunberg, Sweden invented flight shaming, now it's desperately begging airlines to come back
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Time of India

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  • Time of India

Inspired by Greta Thunberg, Sweden invented flight shaming, now it's desperately begging airlines to come back

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Rise in coconut prices a continuation of a global phenomenon dating back to 2020
Rise in coconut prices a continuation of a global phenomenon dating back to 2020

The Hindu

time2 hours ago

  • The Hindu

Rise in coconut prices a continuation of a global phenomenon dating back to 2020

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